It’s become clear throughout training camp and two preseason games that 49ers No. 3 overall pick Trey Lance has the talent to be a dominant NFL quarterback. Still the debate rages about whether the club should throw him into the fire out of the gate, or take a more cautious approach and stick with veteran Jimmy Garoppolo. Given what we know about the two signal callers, there’s only one real reason San Francisco shouldn’t start their rookie.
The only way Lance shouldn’t start at this point is if the 49ers believe it would be to his long-term detriment. That’s the lens with which we have to view any decisions about Lance. The 2021 season, while San Francisco does have Super Bowl aspirations, ultimately doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of the Garoppolo-Lance debate.
Questions about Lance’s pro-readiness have been flying since he declared for the 2021 NFL draft. He played just one game in the 2020 college season and started just 17 college games overall at the FCS level. That’s still a common refrain from the camp that believes Garoppolo should start.
The performances of both quarterbacks in camp and in preseason games indicates that the 49ers’ offensive floor with Garoppolo is no longer way above its floor with Lance, while the ceiling with the rookie remains demonstrably higher. The real question is about what starting right away might do to Lance long-term.
If they just think he’s not ready YET, but he could get there this year with playing time, then they should just bite the bullet and play him. Garoppolo hasn’t looked so much better than Lance that we can say the 49ers would surely be better with him under center. And even if the offense has a couple of hiccups early, it stands to reason it would be markedly better by Week 8 or 10 or 12 and beyond.
Shanahan even noted Lance is learning faster and correcting mistakes in-game following Sunday night’s win over the Chargers where Lance completed 8-of-14 throws for 102 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Garoppolo, on the other hand, finished 3-6 for 15 yards and one interception in one 15-play series.
We’ve seen the offense be at least a little more effective at pushing the ball down the field with Lance in during the preseason, and he’s been pretty good without any designed run plays or game-planning to maximize his skill set. It stands to reason he’ll be even more effective in a run-heavy scheme that keeps defenses on their heels. As for the mistakes with accuracy and touch, those are the kind of kinks that can be ironed out with in-game reps.
The conservative, logical play is to start Garoppolo. Pulling the plug on his starting job to put Lance in could effectively be spun as part of the plan. That’s not an irrational take. Gambling on Lance could lead to some early struggles that force the team to either continue on a losing path or move back to Garoppolo, which opens a Pandora’s box of story lines that Kyle Shanahan would probably rather avoid.
If starting Lance won’t harm his long-term development though — it makes all the sense to roll with the rookie because the only way the 49ers can break through the ceiling Garoppolo sets on their offense is by seeing what Lance can do.