Before you mischaracterize me as being a Pollyanna or “shilling for the team,” what I am about to write is not so much my personal opinion as it is my inference around what David Forst and Co. were thinking come August 1st.
A cool way to analyze trades, I think, is to put aside — for at least a moment — your own “expert opinions” as fans not privy to the conversations or context, and to try to figure out how we got from point A (Frankie Montas is on the trade block) to point B (the A’s conclude the best deal is the Yankees haul of LHP Ken Waldichuk, RHP Jose Medina, LHP J.P. Sears, and infielder Cooper Bowman for Montas (and Lou Trivino).
While we can’t compare this offer to offers from other teams, because like all of you we don’t know exactly what they were, we can compare to the list of Yankees prospects that were on the table for discussion between Forst and Brian Cashman.
Here are some of the thoughts I gather went through the A’s collective minds to land on this deal…
There has been some gnashing of teeth that the A’s didn’t procure, in the deal, one of the Yankees top 2 prospects. After all, for Luis Castillo the Mariners parted with prospects ranked #1 and #2 on lists.
Where’s The “Top Prospect”?
We can assume that one prospect who was never in play was Anthony Volpe, but that perhaps the A’s had a shot at Oswald Peraza, a 22 year old shortstop prospect. Most likely Oakland wasn’t going to pry both Peraza and Waldichuk, and more, but perhaps they could have insisted on the higher ranked Peraza instead of Waldichuk.
Here my inference is that internally, the A’s scouting department actually preferred Waldichuk, not because he’s a pitcher and Peraza an infielder, but perhaps because they don’t strongly believe in Peraza or perhaps because they really like Waldichuk. It’s not hard to see why — while Waldichuk was good at St. Mary’s, he has been pretty spectacular as a pro, with 328 Ks in 215.2 IP while allowing just 149 hits. He has K’d 70 in 47.2 IP at AAA this season, showing no signs of slowing down as he moves up the ladder.
Mind Meld #1: You might have liked the trade better had you heard it was Peraza, Sears, Medina, Bowman. Well, consider at least the possibility that the A’s, with scouts and internal analysts on the ground, liked the haul they got even better.
We wanted Nick Effing LaLoosh?
I see not everyone has warmed up to Luis Medina, and if anyone is wondering why they don’t have to look farther than a BB/9IP rates that frighten puppies. Medina has thrown 361.1 minor league innings, and pitching to Rookie league, A and AA prospects he has walked 244 batters.
The MLB discard pile is littered with pitchers who can throw 100 MPH (as Medina does), who are hard to hit but walk 6.07 batters per 9 IP (as Medina has), who have “ace stuff if they can just throw enough strikes”…Is this the kind of risk you want to bank on as part of a deal for Montas?
The answer lies in Medina’s significant upside, even if his floor is grand canyon low. Medina was considered to have one of the very best — if not the best — arms in the Yankees’ system, a guy who could actually be a top-of-the-rotation SP with the stuff he has. He has been listed as the A’s #7 prospect, while Sears comes in at just the low teens.
I watched a promotional video of him, which is always dangerous because it doesn’t show the frequent spells of wildness and a glimpse of what goes wrong when it all goes sideways. But looking at him during some successful moments, man the stuff really does play. His fastball doesn’t just light up the radar gun, it looks electric, and his big curve is pretty much unhittable.
Also noteworthy, to me, is that while I was seeing only a fraction of his performances, what I saw was a pretty free and easy delivery in which he was able to command his pitches. Even if he can’t currently do that nearly often enough, you can see the potential and dream (while salivating), “What if he were able to repeat that delivery more often…?” You might have yourself an ace.
He’s not there, of course, not even close. But he is making baby steps. His BB/9IP rate at AA this season is 5.00. Which is better than 6, I’m just saying. He’s still only 23 and now gets to work with an organization that has had success developing pitchers.
Mind meld #2: To have made this trade, with Medina as a key piece, I have to think that the A’s believe they can work with Medina’s mechanics and delivery to significantly address the control issues. Not that he will ever be “Cole Irvin level” stingy with the walks, but while Wandisson Charles simply can’t throw strikes — it doesn’t appear to be in his range of potential skill sets no matter what coaches try — A’s scouts and coaches must see in Medina fixable problems they feel they understand and can work with. If so, you might yourself a heck of a pitcher. (And if not, he will be a lot like the lottery tickets you have bought in real life that yielded nothing but disappointment.)
Sears: Under The Radar And Underappreciated
From everything I can see, J.P. Sears is actually quite good. He is noted as having a fastball that “plays up” because of his arm slot and generates more swings and misses than you would expect given average velocity (93 MPH).
Sometimes the hitters tell you how good you are, and in Sears’ case at every level the hitters have said, “Well I can’t really hit you.” Here are his stats:
Short A 2017: 0.69 ERA, 27.2 IP, 13 hits, 12 BB, 51 K
Full A 2017 0.00 ERA, 17 IP, 7 hits, 9 BB, 29 K
Full A 2018: 2.67 ERA, 54 IP, 38 hits, 11 BB, 54 K
Advanced A 2019: 4.07 ERA, 48.2 IP, 41 hits, 16 BB, 45 K
AA 2021 4.09 ERA, 50.2 IP, 45 hits, 18 BB, 71 K
AAA 2021: 2.87 ERA, 53.1 IP, 41 hits, 11 BB, 65 K
AAA 2022: 1.67 ERA, 43 IP, 24 hits, 7 BB, 55 K
Put all together, his minor league totals show 277.1 IP, 202 hits, 75 BB, 341 K
Oh, and in the big leagues? 3-0, 2.05 ERA, 22 IP, 14 hits, 5 BB, 15 K
Mind meld #3: I think the A’s tabbed Sears as a guy who is better than his rankings or his pedigree (he’s an 11th round pick, #333 overall), whose track record from Rookie ball to The Show shows who he actually is.
As for Bowman, I don’t know if he was a key piece in the deal or more of a lottery ticket/filler to round out the deal. Hopefully he reaches the big leagues and contributes, and in a perfect world he goes all Mark Ellis on the league coming out of nowhere (specifically Stevens High School in Rapid City, South Dakota), but it’s unlikely the deal ever hinged on whether he, or a comparable prospect, rounded out the trade.
Conclusion: So perhaps the A’s were offered Peraza or Waldichuk and actually preferred Waldichuk. Maybe they see, in Medina, ace stuff they feel their coaching staff has a real shot to harness. It could be they coveted Sears as if he was a “top 5” prospect, even though he doesn’t appear that way on any boards. You can certainly do worse than a 4th round pick as your “last piece”.
This is all to say why the A’s might have been more bullish on this group of 4 than you will be just to glance at prospect boards and compare to the absurd overpay the Mariners made for a somewhat comparable SP. While we’re busy gnashing teeth, the A’s front office could be high fiving that they “got their guys”.
And in just a few years we’ll know who was right.
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