For the last 2 years the A’s have been trying to overcome the injustice of a poorly constructed lottery system combined with A’s luck not seen since ALDS clinching games.
So far the A’s have done a great job of scoffing at those whirling popcorn balls, drafting 6th but nabbing rookie All-Star Jacob Wilson, then 4th and grabbing Nick Kurtz. With the exception of Paul Skenes (#1 overall in 2023), it’s still unclear whether any pick ahead of those two will prove to be a better choice had the A’s been gifted the opportunity.
Fast forward to this afternoon and the 2025 draft, where once again the A’s have been punished by rules seemingly designed by the creator of Calvinball. After being given lottery picks well below what their record would warrant, nonetheless the A’s are dinged for having had “lottery picks” 2 years in a row and are ineligible for one in 2025. This plummets them down to 11th despite coming off a 93 loss season.
Perhaps the crowning blow is to look up and see who has the 2nd and 3rd overall picks: their division rivals, Angels (2nd) and Mariners (3rd). That’s right the Mariners, who won 85 games last season have the 3rd overall pick in the draft.
So here the A’s are again, hoping to turn injustice on its face and find a gem at #11 that, in hindsight, the Angels and Mariners only wish they had chosen. In MLB it can happen as the draft is far from scientific and exceptions are the rule.
#11 Picks Of Yore
The A’s are hoping to party like it’s 2011. That year, the Houston Astros had the 11th overall pick and selected George Springer long after the Mariners, with the 2nd overall pick, had chosen pitcher Danny Hultzen. Hultzen’s parents have probably heard of him while the rest of us are quite familiar with Springer.
In 2005 and 2006 10 teams passed on Andrew McCutchen and Max Scherzer. In 2005 the Mariners had the 3rd overall pick just as they do today, but went with catcher Jeff Clement, who did not remind many fans of Cal Raleigh.
In 2006 the Mariners did a little better with their 5th overall pick choosing Brandon Morrow, who went on to have a decent enough career. But picks 6-11 included Clayton Kershaw (7th), Tim Lincecum (10th), and Max Scherzer (11th).
BPA vs. Need
So here the A’s are in the #11 position. Do they draft strictly for what their scouts deem to be the best player available after 10 are off the board? Or do they factor in their areas of need?
The answer isn’t quite as simple as it seems, because while there is considerable consensus around the wisdom of BPA, “need” is also a legitimate tie-breaker. Down at #11 there could well be two players who, by virtue of being very different, are deemed roughly equal overall by the A’s scouting department.
For example perhaps the two contenders are a high school SS and a college pitcher. While you would want to choose the better one, if you agree they are equal and it’s a coin flip which one you prefer then you might opt for the pitcher since he’s not only closer to the big leagues but also fits an area where the A’s most need help soon.
Help For 2028? 2027? 2026?
What distinguishes the MLB draft from those in the NBA and NFL is that players don’t go from the draft directly to the big league squad. Historically the draft has been with an eye about 3 years down the road, longer of course for high school draftees.
That pattern has shifted considerably in recent years. The A’s graduated Jacob Wilson and Nick Kurtz each in less than a year, the Angels similarly fast-tracked both Nolan Schanuel and Zach Neto, Paul Skenes barely sniffed the minors on his way to starting All-Star games, and so on.
So just as Gage Jump appears to be a legitimate candidate to break camp with the A’s in 2026, it’s not inconceivable that a top 2025 pick could contribute to his team as soon as 2027 — or perhaps even at the end of 2026.
Don’t Trust My Opinion
Beware the Blogfather’s draft analysis, as he can only really stand by Eyeball Scouting (in short supply with potential draft picks). With so many names bandied about before the draft, honestly I start paying close attention the week before and form most of my opinions from the analysis of knowledgeable peers and the little video I might catch of a few of the candidates.
Video is deceiving because usually it only shows the good moments — for pitchers it’s often a montage of strikeouts. If a little knowledge is a dangerous thing then this fan is extremely dangerous.
As evidence of my ineptitude I submit that as the A’s pick in 2023 came up I was muttering, “Just not Jacob Wilson, please” because the A’s had been linked to Wilson and I had decided he was another Cliff Pennington/Richie Martin in the making. In 2024 I wrote a pre-draft article that praised the potential selections of JJ Wetherholt and Jac Caglianone and concluded that Nick Kurtz, to whom the A’s had been linked, would be the wrong choice.
Luckily the A’s don’t listen to my admittedly uninformed thoughts and I freely admit you should trust the A’s scouts over me on this one. (If I had a chance to actually scout these players it might be a different story, but these are all players I haven’t actually seen.)
Blogfather’s Uninformed Man Crush
That being said, I still get to have opinions even if I acknowledge that if the A’s disagree there’s an excellent chance they are right. Their man crushes are more informed than mine and their post-pandemic drafting has earned them my deference to their draft wisdom over mine. But it’s fun to have crushes and opinions so why not give it a whirl?
My 2025 target has become Kyson Witherspoon, RHP for Oklahoma. MLB’s final mocks have Witherspoon being available at #11 but have the A’s passing on him only to have their evil former neighbors, the Giants, selecting him at #13.
When I saw a brief video of Witherspoon I was impressed. Not only does his mid-to-high 90s fastball have excellent ride up in the zone, he commanded a variety of pitches including a sharp 12-to-6 curve, cutter, and changeup.
I also like his compact/short-arm delivery that creates deception. While I do like Tyler Bremner, another SP who could go in the first half of the first round, Bremner’s arsenal is less varied and so he is a work-in-progress who could pay dividends — but Witherspoon appears to already have all the tools and just needs experience and of course continued health.
Anyway, I don’t know who is actually good and I know virtually nothing about the prep players the A’s have been linked to so all I can really say is that if the A’s pick Witherspoon I will be very happy. If they select Bremner I’ll be pleased as well, since it does address an area of need and if the A’s scouts think Bremner is worthy of the 11th pick it’s a good sign that they see front of the rotation potential in him.
Trust
Finally, if the A’s select one of the prep players, e.g., Gaven Kilen (2B) or Cruz Schoolcraft (SP), or zag for a player we haven’t even talked about nearly as much, their recent success with Kurtz and Wilson combined with their “nailed it!” draft of 2021 (first 4 picks were Max Muncy, Zack Gelof, Mason Miller, and Denzel Clarke), the A’s have earned my trust that they will make a wise selection.
There are no guarantees at #1 or #2 so certainly the 11th pick is a big crap shoot. Sometime late this afternoon we will know on whom the A’s are rolling dice — and then in 1-3 years we’ll actually have some idea how good a pick it was.