There’s plenty not to like about the A’s first 14 games, starting with the inconvenient fact that 9 of them have been losses. But baseball is famous for its ebbs and flows, for the “stay the course” nature of a long season that tends to leave small samples in the rear view window if you just keep driving.
Let’s take a look at some half empty glasses and how if you put on your “3-D squint” spectacles you can see a glass that is actually half full…
A 5-9 Last Place Team
There’s no getting around the A’s record or current place in the standings, but here’s some context. The A’s poor record has been built in “The House That Nobody Would Build,” a 1-6 mark so far at home.
Keep in mind that while the A’s played terribly against the Cubs, the reality is that their home schedule so far has been against 3 teams all tied or atop their divisions. The Cubs, Padres, and Mets are a combined 29-14 — they’re not just beating up on the A’s, they are excellent teams who represent the cream of the NL crop.
Current 1-3 Homestand
Watching the Cubs games was worrisome, as the A’s were outclassed on the mound, at the plate, and in the field. It looked like a matchup between a very good team and a very bad team and did not predict much success going forward.
The Padres-Mets games have been entirely the opposite, looking like a hard fought matchup of two equal teams in which the A’s have just barely gotten the worse end of the stick more often than not.
If you want one simple way to view this, so far on the homestand the A’s have outscored their opponents 21-18. That has come by way of a 6-run win (10-4) and three 1-run losses (5-4, 2-1, 7-6).
That’s the epitome of the profile of a 1-3 stretch that could easily be 3-1 or 4-0 with games hinging on one pitch, one play, one call, and the A’s having less than their fair share of luck.
Friday’s game might be the poster child for such an argument, with a Max Muncy would be 2-run double finding the glove of a leaping Brandon Nimmo despite being absolutely clocked, Brent Rooker missing a solo HR by a foot when he crushed one off the top of the CF wall, and Tyler Soderstrom rocketing a line drive with the bases loaded only to have it be right at Juan Soto. That’s 5 runs lost in a game the A’s fell short by a single run.
Building Blocks
With young and talented players often come early struggles and mistakes followed by the natural talent coming through. We have the struggles with Muncy and we have seen the talent with Soderstrom and Jacob Wilson.
Half-empty glassers will note, and they are not wrong, that Soderstrom and Wilson are due for some regression. But we may also we witnessing the brink of corners being turned, with Muncy starting the season 3 for 29 with 12 Ks in his first 8 games but 4 for 15 (2 doubles plus that Nimmo-bound rocket for one of the outs), with just 2 Ks, in these last 4.
The reality is that the A’s are putting a very talented group on the field with Soderstrom, Muncy, and Wilson on the infield, Shea Langeliers behind the plate, Lawrence Butler in the outfield. And it’s only going to get more interesting when Zack Gelof returns and Nick Kurtz (.385/.418/.846, 6 HR in 12 games) join.
April’s Team Is Only April’s Team
A’s history shows how early season struggles and roster flaws can become distant memories within the same season.
In 2001 the A’s stumbled out of the gate something fierce, starting out 6-13. One key adjustment the team made was to switch Johnny Damon and Terrence Long in the outfield (cough Bleday and Butler cough) and next thing you know the A’s were taking off.
The early roster did not include Jermaine Dye, but the second half roster did, and the team finished the season an astonishing 63-18 to give them 102 wins.
In the magical 2012 season the A’s were sputtering along losing more than half their games with many of the losses agonizing near misses of “if only…” moments similar to what we have seen the past few days.
Then fortunes turned when Derek Norris shocked the Giants with a walk-off 3-run HR off Santiago Casilla the day of AJ Griffin’s big league debut, and the team with bad luck and a bad record revamped itself with additions of Griffin, Brandon Inge, the second iteration of Josh Donaldson, Travis Blackley…unlikely contributors who kept arriving and coming up with big hits, big pitches, big plays.
All of which is to say that the team which started an unimpressive 5-9 also is not a team with a competent defensive outfield, or a right side infield of Kurtz and Gelof, or a 5th SP with the tools to succeed — but it could be soon.
The first step has been taken with JT Ginn called up to make this afternoon’s start. Hopefully someone is reading my articles and also watching pop fly after pop fly fall onto the CF grass, and by June 1st you can bet the right side of the infield is not going to look like it does today.
Pitching Will Find Its Norms
What we haven’t focused on hardly at all so far is the pitching, and it hasn’t been great. Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs each followed 6 shutout innings in Seattle with two starts in which struggles were considerable. Osvaldo Bido has wobbled around even when not surrendering many runs and Joey Estes showed why no one outside of the front office thought he should be given the 5th starter job out of spring training.
The result has been a team ERA of 5.04 through 14 games, but this is not a staff you should expect to continue giving up 5 ER/game. Severino and Springs may not be aces but they are quality pitchers whose best days are ahead. Just getting Estes out of the rotation and replacing him with a talented SP like Ginn will help.
The bullpen will be inconsistent, but the emergence of Justin Sterner provides some important depth on the “plus” side, and as the season moves from its “early” stage to the longer haul the A’s will have sorted out the haves and the have nots of 2025 — whether it’s Tyler Ferguson or Michel Otañez, whether Mitch Spence settles in to be a consistently effective reliever or Jason Alexander proves to be a “hidden treasure” in 2025, by June the A’s will have figured out who belongs and who needs to be jettisoned.
All of which is to say we can expect the pitching to get better, not worse or the same, over the coming weeks.
Now, this is not to suggest the A’s are a team without flaws. There are flaws and they are, frankly, substantial. Lacking on the April 12th roster is a #1 SP, adequate defenders in LF or CF, strength on either side of the ball at 3B, or much speed on the bases.
But just one more run here and a modicum of average luck there and the A’s are 3-1 against two division leaders on the homestand, 7-7 on the young season and trending upwards.
Glass Half Empty: “Yeah, but the past is what it is.”
Glass Half Full: “Yes, and the future is yet to be told…”