We all know Logan Webb is a tough customer. Jacob Wilson calls him the toughest pitcher he’s faced in the big leagues, with Jonah Bride presumably coming in a close second. Webb dominated the A’s earlier this season, as well as in his start against them last year. This season Webb boasts a 2.61 ERA.
There are many things it is hard to do against Webb, including stringing hits together and taking him deep — Webb has allowed just 7 HR all season in 113.2 IP. He walks fewer than 2 batters per 9 IP and generally gets deep into games.
So swinging for the fences, working the count, hoping for a flurry of hits or walks, all fool’s missions against this particular SP. And here is where managers need to adjust to the specific situation in forming a game plan.
Against Tarik Skubal the A’s felt they were so vulnerable in 2-strike counts they needed to be more aggressive on first pitches, and early in the count in general. Their adjustment paid off as they tagged Skubal for 4 runs, the only start in Skubal’s last 7 in which he has surrendered more than 2.
For the A’s to have a good chance at breaking through tonight, they once again need to adapt their strategy to match the opponent. We don’t know how many base runners they will get in the first place against Webb, but presumably some batters are going to reach base.
Webb is an extreme ground ball pitcher who is around the plate a lot. That’s a recipe for double plays and no one hits into more DPs than the Athletics, who rank #1 in all of MLB in that category. Or #30 depending on how you look at it.
I have talked a lot about hitting-and-running more, but the fact is that’s not always the right idea. Against pitchers who get a lot of swings and misses, it’s especially risky, just as it is against pitchers whose control is erratic. You don’t want to put the hit-and-run on for a pitch the batter can’t connect on or a pitch far out of the strike zone.
Webb does get his fair share of swings and misses, but he is also usually around the plate and he throws a lot of strikes. With the right batter, the right runner, the right situation, tonight is a night for the A’s to be unusually aggressive in bringing some key ‘small ball’ tactics to the table — even if those tactics are not always appropriate for a team often capable of hitting HRs and ‘keeping the line moving’.
Hit And Run
The A’s woefully underuse this tool considering the personnel they have. The combination of Webb and Jacob Wilson is a recipe for a DP but it is also a recipe for a successful hit-and-run. Tyler Soderstrom, Lawrence Butler, even Brent Rooker are hitters for whom Mark Kotsay ought to play the hit-and-run card tonight rather than sit back in a DP situation.
Base Stealing
Of course attempting steals comes with risk. You hate to give up outs, and erase runners, when outs and base runners can be precious against a pitcher of Webb’s caliber.
But given the difficulty of stringing 3 hits together in an inning against Webb, the relative improbability of a HR even with your sluggers, the need to guard against the dreaded DP rally killer, the A’s need to be risk takers if the opportunity presents itself.
In particular, should the planets align and gift Denzel Clarke 1B, he needs to be far more aggressive looking to steal 2B early in the count. Too many times already Clarke has reached 1B only to stand around the entire rest of the inning. He should be one of those “it’s only a matter of time” base stealing threats.
If you don’t believe me, go back and watch his triple last night to see how he flies from one base to the next. Clarke has yet to be caught stealing in his 5 big league attempts (and he was 7 for 8 at AAA), and while he doesn’t reach base often enough so far he also hasn’t made the most of the times he does reach.
Tonight of all nights this needs to shift if Clarke reaches. Butler, even Soderstrom, Rooker and Langeliers, as well as Zack Gelof and perhaps even Max Muncy, need to be ready to test Webb and Patrick Bailey — if someone gets thrown out, so be it. Perhaps 2 other times there is a successful steal that allows just a seeing eye single to plate a precious run. It’s not always worth the risk but against Webb? Don’t stand around.
Baseball Gonna Baseball
Now…it’s baseball. For all we know the A’s will come out swinging and put up a 4-spot on Webb in the bottom of the 1st. Or all these points will be rendered moot as only 2 batters reach in 8 innings. Or Luis Severino will have another ‘home meltdown’ and the A’s will be trailing 5-0 before they can form a plan.
So this article is strategizing for the game we think might unfold. The broader point is that not all matchups are the same, not all opposing teams or players are the same, and approaches and game plans need to be tailored to fit. Pitchers and hitters need to adjust to situations in order to keep thriving, and managers need to do the same.
Play ball!