Let’s get the ugly out of the way. It’s not hard to find: Muncy’s overall stats this season tell the tale of a rookie struggling in his maiden voyage around the league. If all you have to go on are the numbers on his ledger you will not be encouraged: Through 17 games, Muncy is batting .185/.200/.315 (48 wRC+) with a 29.1% K rate and in the field he has been charged with 4 errors for a .929 fielding percentage, -2 DRS and -3 OAA.
To my eyes, though, and to the deeper look at the stat sheet, Muncy’s past and projected future are not ugly so much as they are a blend of good and bad. So today, let’s take a more nuanced look at the 22 year old as he is finding his way — sometimes with a compass and at other times with a red and white cane — in the big leagues.
Batting
The bad…Muncy has struck out in nearly 30% of his plate appearances, vulnerable to the chase slider and prone to being late on fastballs when focused on spin.
The good…Muncy has made significant strides with regard to his K rate in just the span of a week and a half. He started the season striking out in 12 of his first 30 plate appearances, a 40% K rate. But in his most recent 25 PAs he has fanned just 4 times (16%).
The bad…Perhaps more concerning than the Ks is that Muncy has walked just once all season (1.8% rate). That flat out has to come up.
The good…Showing patience and drawing walks doesn’t appear to be a weakness in Muncy’s profile: in his minor league career his BB rate has never been lower than 7.7% and has been as high as 14%.
The bad…So far Muncy has been a bit “pull happy”. In the minors his “opposite field” % of balls put in play generally hovered in the low-to-mid 30s but this year has been 21.1%.
The good…When Muncy hits the ball, it’s loud off his bat. Specific examples that come to mind are the rocket on which Brandon Nimmo made a circus catch and the laser off the LF wall hit so hard Muncy had to settle for a single, along with his 3 doubles and the “swung on, gone” HR in Seattle. His maximum exit velocity of 112.6 isn’t shabby, nor is the fact that I’m not actually sure which of those hits it was — because he has scalded several that were impressive off the bat.
Blognalysis Of What It All Adds Up To…I think first and foremost one has to acknowledge how big and quick the improvement is in the K rate (40% to 16%) and BA (.103 to .286) from one week and a half to the next. That bodes well for the chances that moving forward we might see numbers closer to the past week than the first one.
That being said, there are some adjustments still to be made. I think Muncy is suffering, more broadly, from “trying to do too much” syndrome, which shows up in his defense as well.
What Muncy needs right now is a good KISS. If you’re not familiar with the acronym, it stands for “Keep It Simple, Stupid.” A more relaxed, “see ball, hit ball hard somewhere” approach will allow him to see pitches longer, lay off more pitches and draw more walks, and hit more to the opposite field.
Like it or not, these adjustments take time. Tyler Soderstrom was also 22 when he came up in May of 2024. He struggled in May (.182/.308/.318), turned it around in June (.250/.326/.500), then took another tumble in July (.182/.240/.227). And it wasn’t even his first go around, having been called up in 2023 only to struggle throughout 45 games batting just .160/.232/.240.
So even at best you can probably expect 2 steps forward, 1 step back from Muncy before he takes off if he takes off. Given his strong BB rate in the minors, how the ball comes off his bat, and the strides he has made so far in a short amount of time, I’m leaning towards him figuring it out and being successful as a big league hitter — but not without some more lumps this year that cannot be avoided if you want to get to the success.
Fielding
As rocky as the hitting has been at times, Muncy’s fielding has probably been the bigger problem of the two.
The bad…Muncy has made 4 errors already and they were all on pretty routine chances. This is not an example of a fielder getting punished for his range or an uncharitable official scorer. He is simply not “making all the plays” to satisfy the lowest bar of what you hope for and expect from a fielder.
The good…Muncy is really only a KISS away from making all the routine plays. If you take a deeper look at his errors they tend to have in common that he tried to do too much when he didn’t need to.
In particular two of the errors come to mind. One was when he foolishly tried to pivot and get a force at 2B when there was an easy out 4-3. His foot slipped as he threw into the runner, and his throw wound up hitting the runner.
The other was when Muncy fielded a bouncer towards the 2B bag with a runner approaching and he appeared to ponder briefly the option of trying to tag the runner going by rather than just fielding the ball and throwing to 1B. He wound up bobbling the grounder and couldn’t get an out anywhere.
The other 2 errors came on the game’s first batter for whatever that’s worth. But take a couple sure, easy outs at 1B on basic ground balls and you just cut your error total in half.
The bad…Muncy’s arm does look to be a bit erratic. When he drops down his throw tend to fade and sail and are often not accurate. When he throws over the top he seems to vacillate between firing bullets and lobbing changeups almost as if he has the “yips”.
The good…Muncy’s arm strength is that of a true shortstop and it has served him well a couple times turning DPs. When accurate his arm has the potential to be a plus at 2B or 3B.
The bad…Muncy’s range has often not done him much good, as several times he has moved far to get to a ground ball but not fielded it cleanly, which ultimately is range more in theory than in practice.
The good…While fielding on the move is a teachable skill, the act of “having range” is less so. Muncy appears to have the more innate, difficult to instill, piece down and as a 22 year old who is a good athlete there is hope for him to refine the more nuanced pieces.
Blognalysis Of What It All Adds Up To…I’m a little less sanguine about Muncy’s fielding prospects as a 2Bman, though I have hope.
He is a true SS and even if they can’t ultimately stick at SS they often make for good 2Bmen. Yet his defense has always been considered somewhat erratic, starting with his throwing arm, and it’s unclear to me how good a fielder Muncy naturally is at any position.
Compounding the problem is that SS is his most comfortable position but Jacob Wilson has that market cornered, so Muncy is stuck trying to thrive — or at least become average — at a less familiar and comfortable spot.
Now if he can excel at 3B there may not be a problem to solve because presumably Zack Gelof will be back by June and we know 3B is position of long term need. I can’t comment at all on 3B because I’ve never seen Muncy play there and it’s hard to guess how his reflexes/hands, or his arm, would play at the big league level.
With a Marcus Semien like work ethic and determination, and a Ron Washington mentoring him, I don’t doubt Muncy could become a very good defensive infielder. But while Muncy may have the attitude we’re looking for he certainly doesn’t have Wash to guide him, so it’s anybody’s guess where his defense will be this time next year — where in quality or where on the diamond.
Conclusion
Fans want their team to win now, and without question the growing pains we’ve seen with Muncy are frustrating when your team is 7-10. There is also no sure way to get to where Butler and Soderstrom are without accepting some deep struggles at the big league level like those two endured.
I say “stay the course” with Muncy and it may pay off in spades down the road — and not even too far down the road. But I also caution he is not a sure thing and that the road to any greatness has not seen its last bump, not even close.
What do you think?