Nothing combines fun and irresponsible than “90th/50th/20th percentile comps”. They can be lazy, they can be right on, they can be … pretty much anything you want them to be (except for usually right).
Note that these comps generally will look a bit too favorable. That’s because the real “worst case scenarios” that are absolutely possible are “gets injured and is never heard from again” and “gets injured and is never the same”. So these comps presume the player does, in fact, reach the major leagues and is only within that range of outcomes.
Here are some possible comps for the A’s top picks in the 2025 draft completed Monday…
1st pick: Jamie Arnold (LHP)
The A’s are thrilled that Arnold dropped to their #11 pick, as he was listed as #4 on MLB Pipeline and was projected as high as 1.1 at some points in his career.
Arnold’s arm slot stands out as the lefty is close to being a true “sidewinder” and he gets extraordinary break on his slider. With a fastball, slider, changeup mix, a lanky frame, a mid 90s fastball, and a late drop down delivery, it’s hard — even if it’s too easy — not to make the comparison to Chris Sale.
I scoured a fair amount of video trying to see which MLB pitchers had the most similar arm slots in their deliveries and the two I found to be the closest were in fact Sale and Aaron Loup.
Given all this I am going with the following comps for “best case/worst case/likeliest case” scenarios:
90th percentile comp: Chris Sale (#1 SP — Arnold certainly does have that upside)
20th percentile comp: Aaron Loup — ending up as a reliever would be a fail but as a reliever it’s hard to imagine Arnold wouldn’t still be valuable, as Loup has been.
50th percentile comp: Rich Hill — Hill is more over the top in his delivery but checks the other boxes of being a lefty SP with a big breaking pitch that moves a ton. Hill has had a very solid but erratic career and seems like about the over/under for a big, but as of yet unproven, talent.
2nd pick: Devin Taylor (OF)
Taylor’s distinguishing characteristics are that he is a LH batter with big time power combined with a discerning eye. He has a sturdy frame (6’1” 215) and is considered to be a below average outfielder and runner who could wind up as a DH but will most likely land in LF as a “bat first” player.
90th percentile comp: Kyle Schwarber — that’s who I’m hoping Taylor winds up being as Schwarber is a great LH hitter who both slugs and walks at an elite pace. (Hopefully Taylor can bring his OF skills past Schwarber’s because Schwarber is terrible now, but earlier in his career he was just solidly below average.)
20th percentile comp: Jon Singleton — Slight cop out because Singleton is a 1Bman, but the physical likenesses are there and Singleton was a high draft pick with “on base and slugging skills” who just never put it together.
50th percentile comp: Jeromy Burnitz — Looking for a “poor man’s Matt Stairs” who could mash but didn’t help you in the field, I settled on Burnitz over Jay Bruce (better outfielder) and Rowdy Tellez (too low a bar). Burnitz was very good for 3 years but mostly mediocre on both sides of that peak.
3rd pick: Gavin Turley (OF)
A Colby Thomas clone with worse hair, Turley comes with the reputation of hitting the ball hard and far — when he hits it. He has had issues around chasing and whiffing, though where he differs from Thomas is that he is known to draw his fair share of walks. Like Thomas, Turley is praised for having a strong throwing arm and good speed.
90th percentile comp : George Springer — Springer has a big swing but has kept his K rates low (20.7% career) and if Turley can control the strike zone his 5-tool potential could allow him to hit and field like Springer. That’s close to best case scenario, but that’s what the 90th percentile is for.
20th percentile comp: Michael Choice — OK a slight cop out in that Choice had only 300 PAs in the big leagues but A’s fans are familiar with Choice as a high draft pick outfielder who just couldn’t make enough contact or keep the strikeouts under control.
50th percentile comp: Taylor Ward — Ward has some speed, a lot of power, and has had a couple strong seasons but his tendency to chase and whiff have kept him from having a better career.
There’s your top 3 picks for comp consideration and your feedback — affirmations, rebuttals, better suggested comps. (Note that I always use same-handed comps, so no cheating with a righty to comp a lefty or vice versa.)