It’s hard to say whether the May, 2025 A’s were the best 1-20 team ever or the worst club ever to have a perfectly decent roster. Fast forward 48hours and 2 much needed wins — one a “you can exhale” blowout as monkeys climbed off backs, the other a one-run win not fully blown by the bullpen — and at least the chatter is no longer about a cursed season. Now it’s about when the A’s can become truly competitive and how competitive that can be.
Put me in the camp that believes the A’s are not as far from legitimate contention as it seems. 25-40 is a terrible record and the recent nose dive off a tall cliff could not inspire confidence that the team was “close to being good”.
And yet the reality is that it’s easy to lose when you are exceptionally weak in 2 of the 3 key areas of the game: pitching and defense, deficiencies that can mask a potent offense. It’s also true that rosters turn over quickly and the group on the field yesterday is not the group today, nor is today’s group tomorrow’s.
As a starting point the A’s offense, despite their odd struggles with RISP, is better than good. It’s near the top of the league. For the season as a whole, only the Yankees boast a higher team OPS or wRC+, and that’s largely without Nick Kurtz who only began to find his stride when he landed on the IL.
The position player core of Jacob Wilson (.369/.407/.527, 167 wRC+), Brent Rooker (.275/.344/.484, 135 wRC+), Lawrence Butler (.270/.341/.471, 130 wRC+), Tyler Soderstrom (.253/.328/.478, 127 wRC+), and Nick Kurtz (already up to .245/.315/.447, 110 wRC+ after a slow start) is special, and has room to grow with the return of Zack Gelof and the possible emergence of Max Muncy in his second go-around (if they can find a place where his defense is good enough).
Meanwhile, the call up of Denzel Clarke has not only given the A’s much needed speed but has turned the outfield defense around almost 180 degrees. Plug Gelof in at 2B with Kurtz at 1B and suddenly you have a much improved outfield and infield defense to what the A’s trotted out there until Clarke was summoned.
The Pitching
This brings us to the pitching. If the A’s had a worthy rotation they would be winning a lot of games now, especially if the starting pitchers could get deep enough into games so as not to overly expose the bullpen’s volatility.
But oh my, the pitching. Not just the almost historically awful bullpen work the past month — the starting pitching has severely disappointed, from Luis Severino’s troubles at home to Jeffrey Springs’ inconsistency to JP Sears rediscovering the long ball to Osvaldo Bido being generally terrible to a parade of back end SPs who have either failed (Joey Estes) or quickly declined on their way to the IL (JT Ginn, Gunnar Hoglund).
The Future
Is help on the way? The answer is yes and no. There is hope for a very good rotation by the start of 2026, but at the same time nothing is really assured even by “talented but unproven” pitching standards.
No matter how frustrated you might get at times by Severino and Springs, they would be welcome additions to the back part of any rotation. They might be stretched as “front of the rotation” arms but they have much to offer if they don’t have to be your top guys.
The trick is finding pitchers who are better, not worse, than that veteran duo. Ginn, along with Hoglund and Brady Basso, give the A’s some potential good depth at the back end, but what about true upside arms who can lead the rotation?
The Next “Big 3”…Or Not
There is in fact a “big 3” all within shouting distance of a March, 2026 spot in the A’s rotation. All have legitimate virtues and come with at least some questions.
Jack Perkins
Perkins may be closest despite starting the season on the IL. With a mid-90s fastball and a full SP’s arsenal, Perkins flashed his potential dominance just last night striking out 10 in 5 IP for the Aviators, giving him 49 Ks in his 32.2 IP. He has allowed just 22 hits and 13 BBs, and his 3.58 ERA is impressive in the context of the PCL.
If he stays healthy Perkins is a strong candidate to join the rotation by year’s end, but excitement needs to be tempered by the fact that he has not yet mastered the art of efficiency.
Perkins needed 93 pitches to get through those 5 strong innings and he is averaging just 4.2 IP per start. He has yet to complete 6 IP, only going more than 5 IP once. Major league hitters are exceptional, compared to their AAA brethren, at working the count and at fouling off pitches AAA hitters miss, and so in all likihihood Perkins is not ready to thrive in the big leagues yet.
If he can master the art of the 15 pitch inning, Perkins may be ready for the prime time and has the upside of an anchor for the rotation’s top 3 spots. But while he is progressing nicely, Perkins does still appear to have some strides still to make.
Luis Morales
Regarded as the A’s top pitching prospect the past 2 years, Morales is still only 22 and is now at AAA knocking on the door. Like Perkins, however, Morales has not always been efficient or thrown enough strikes.
Morales’ mid-to-high ‘90s fastball, and wipeout curve/slider, give him #1 upside but he needs to manage the walks and the pitch count. It’s also likely his changeup needs to improve for him to be dominant in the big leagues as a starter.
The Cuban righty has long been regarded as a very raw talent, which doesn’t profile as a “fast mover” — so while Morales has moved fast so far, there is still quite a bit to refine before he is ready to take the next and final leap.
In 3 AAA starts, Morales has thrown 16.2 IP, about 5.5 IP per start, and he has walked 8. Keep an eye on the “innings per start” and walk numbers as one key gauge of his progress and readiness.
Gage Jump
Not much not to like here, as Jump has pretty much taken the minors by storm after recovering from Tommy John surgery.
The 22 year old lefty made mincemeat out of A+ hitters, compiling a 4-1 record and 2.32 ERA in 11 games (10 starts). All the stat lines were great: 60.1 IP, 41 hits, 2 HR, 13 BB, 80 K.
Promoted to AA Midland, I think it’s fair to say Jump has not been phased: 4-1, 0.92 ERA, 29.1 IP, 20 hits, 1 HR, 8 BB, 35 K.
Jump’s exceptional work in 2024 has — wait for it — jumped him up into top 100 lists in a hurry and leaves him as arguably the A’s #1 pitching prospect now. It is not hard to envision him leading the rotation by 2026.
The main caveat would be that 60.1 IP represents the sum total of Jump’s professional experience and he will need to be on careful limits with regard to innings, so he will not enter 2026 with a lot of innings built up or with a great deal of experience.
Pitchers like Paul Skenes show that you don’t always need a lot of minor league innings (Skenes logged just 34 IP), while there is also a recent trend of position players racing through the minors — the A’s next series will feature Jacob Wilson, Zach Neto and Nolan Schanuel as prime examples.
March, 2026 Outlook
Rarely does everything fall into place as planned. Injuries and surprisingly good or bad performance will usually alter the landscape between the planting and growing phases.
Nonetheless, there is reason for hope when you ponder a rotation anchored by Severino, Springs, Jump, Morales, and Perkins backed by the back end depth of Sears (if not traded), Waldichuk, Ginn, Hoglund, Basso, Spence, and any others who may join the mix through free agency, trade, or promotion.
Ultimately there are many question marks and uncertainties and any plans should be written firmly in pencil. But there is reason to think the A’s have a wealth of talent in the mix and that good times could be a lot closer than their 25-40 record would suggest.
And they are 25-40, and they do have holes on the big league roster, and they do have question marks surrounding the talent they hope will launch them to deep relevancy.
Hard to know which way the pendulum will ultimately swing. But with the second most robust hitting team in the league whose defense has gotten a significant boost over April’s and May’s monstrosity, there is a lot to like in the big leagues — and perhaps just as much worth keeping a keen eye on as A’s prospects take the mound in Las Vegas and Midland.
What do you think about the A’s ‘near future’ rotation? Legit or too many ifs? It’s ok to answer “both” so long as you weigh in and so long as you keep following the only team worth loving.