We have in front of us an Oakland A’s team that can’t hit. If today’s 2-hit shutout didn’t hammer home the point enough, the 2024 A’s are hitting .222/.293/.374, which is bad even by today’s standards, and they strike out like it’s going out of style (which it isn’t). Compounding matters is that the next great hitters don’t appear to be a step away at AAA.
Nonetheless, hitting isn’t necessarily the biggest concern the A’s face in the ongoing rebuild. At the big league level there is legitimate talent in Zack Gelof, Tyler Soderstrom, and Lawrence Butler, JJ Bleday’s coming out party has solidified the outfield some while Darell Hernaiz offers additional hope on the infield, and Shea Langeliers continues to show potential even if he has yet to show enough production.
Meanwhile, in the minors there is raw talent behind the precocious Jacob Wilson: no one doubts Denzel Clarke’s athletic ability and Henry Bolte has — if he can make enough contact — true “5-tool talent” of his own. You could envision the lineup coming together if a few pieces break right.
But on the pitching side…somehow the A’s managed to trade half an All-Star team and land with not enough upside for a future rotation. Here’s the problem:
The A’s are somewhat plush with decent “back end SP” types and that’s good because those guys are more valuable than the average fan might realize. Mitch Spence, Joey Estes, JP Sears, and Hogan Harris all profile as potentially useful starting pitchers…at the back end of a rotation.
Trouble is, up and down the organization, from the big league roster to the IL to the upper minors to the lower minors, there just are not enough pitchers who fit the profile of an ace, or even a mid-rotation SP.
Don’t get me wrong, there are some. You could arguably place Ken Waldichuk in that category, now with the troubling asterisk “given a successful recovery from Tommy John surgery”. The A’s top 2 starting pitching prospects in the minors have a long ways to go: Luis Morales and Chen Zhong-Ao Zhuang are both at single-A Lansing and have to prove they can make it 3 more levels successfully — and healthy — but both represent exciting arms.Other candidates, such as Steven Echavarria, are even more of a lottery ticket at age 18.
Don’t look for a “top of the rotation” SP to emerge anytime soon. Luis Medina has good stuff on paper, but his inability to miss bats and his erratic control have revealed him as a very unlikely candidate to breakout and carve out a career in the front of a rotation. Kyle Muller was probably acquired to be at least a mid-rotation SP but very poor scouting went into that determination and Muller will be lucky to stick as more than a fungible long man/swing man who hangs around longer because he throws with his left hand.
As for other trades, maybe the A’s took a good shot with JT Ginn but pitchers get hurt and Ginn has not really been effective since joining the organization and battling injuries. Ryan Cusick has a good arm, but the Braves didn’t even really want to draft him and we are seeing why as Cusick struggles to command pitches. Freddy Tarnok couldn’t stay on the mound and ultimately didn’t stay in the organization. Royber Salinas remains one of the few “high upside arms standing” but is currently on the IL — another reminder that you need about 8 hot shot arms if you’re hoping to land 3 in a rotation someday.
And while occasionally guys surprise and emerge from out of nowhere, the current landscape looks awfully barren if you’re seeking members of the next “big 3” even 2-3 years down the road. It’s a pretty strong indictment of this rebuild that so few big arms are in play. Yes, prospects get injured and prospect fail a lot more than they succeed, but as you browse the rotations in Oakland, in Las Vegas, in Midland, you realize how much would have to break just right for the next A’s contending team to field a rotation of pitchers currently in the pipeline.
I suppose this all might lead one to urge the A’s to draft Chase Burns with the #4 pick if the opportunity presents itself — and it might, considering that Charlie Condon, Travis Bazzana, and Jac Caglianone are considered top talent that teams above the A’s might grab. Typically, the A’s draft position players with their top pick using subsequent rounds to gather a bevy of interesting arms. Then again, it was when they had an especially high pick that they pivoted and selected Mark Mulder (#2 overall).
In 3 weeks we will know the A’s strategy with the 4 overall pick along with how many, and which, pitchers they draft in the rounds that follow. What may not be clear for quite a bit longer is how they intend to build the front of a rotation to match what other teams have at the big league level — and in their upper minors.
There is an alternate universe in which the A’s insist on a worthy front end SP prospect in a deal for Matt Olson and Sean Murphy, identify a smart lottery ticket in smaller deals for Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt, maybe even swap the good quantity they got for Frankie Montas for one prospect with Medina’s arm, Sears’ health, and Waldichuk’s disposition.
But that’s not the universe we are in, so it is incumbent upon the A’s front office to bring more FOTR talent into the mix but soon. How? If I knew the answer to that, I wouldn’t be blogging from my bedroom on a Saturday night.