First and foremost, win or lose the A’s have evolved into a fun and rewarding team to follow and root for. The core of position players is special, from presumptive Rookie of the Year Jacob Wilson (nobody bats .358 any more and yet as a rookie Wilson has done just that for half a season) to potentially Wilson’s closest challenger Nick Kurtz (HRs in 5 of his last 6 games, 3 of them game-winners) to the truly phenomenal defense of Denzel Clarke (an insane 8 DRS and 10 OAA in 200 CF innings).
That doesn’t even name the dynamic Lawrence Butler (120 wRC+, 11 HR, 10 SB), the inconsistent but impactful 23 year old Tyler Soderstrom (119 wRC+, 14 HR, 10.2% BB rate), the emerging Max Muncy or the soon-to-return (for real this time, we think) Zack Gelof.
Make no mistake about it, there’s a young core of position players with more talent than any A’s team since, when, the Chavez-Tejada-Giambi teams? It could be special.
Defense
Defense was a huge Achilles heel until the arrivals of Kurtz and Clarke stabilized the infield some and the outfield a lot. The return of Gelof will further improve the infield defense, and the continued experience of Soderstrom could further enhance the outfield defense.
Baby steps, but the A’s have spent most of the season dead last out of 30 teams in defensive efficiency. Today they are 28th (ahead of the Orioles and Rockies), 25th in errors, 23rd in turning DPs.
Pitching
But pitching. Oh, the pitching. Yes the A’s frustrate with their odd ineptitude hitting with RISP and they hit into far too many DPs. And yes, Muncy is still a bit of an adventure at 3B with Wilson showing a concerning lack of range at SS, which makes it hard to run down the throws Butler heaves well beyond the cut-off man.
But the hitting is solid, 5th in the AL in runs scored, 3rd in HRs, and now all the more potent with Kurtz coming into his own, while the defense since Clarke’s promotion has been vastly improved. When the A’s pitch well, they generally win — it just needs to happen more as a rule than an exception for the team to make the jump from “fun” to “actual contender”.
How close are the A’s to competing on the back of solid pitching? Not as far as it may seem when you’re still reeling from back-to-back shellackings at the hands of the AL West leaders.
Jeffrey Springs
Don’t look now (ok now you can look) but Springs is settling in to be the guy the A’s traded for. One of the best kept secrets about Tommy John surgery is that often pitchers return with comparable velocity but initially struggle with control/command.
This appears to be the path for Springs as he walked an uncharacteristic 16 batters in 28.1 April innings while posting a 6.04 ERA.
Springs’ season stats still suffer significantly from his miserable April. (Did you notice I started the last sentence with 6 consecutive words that begin with ‘s’? How cool is that?) But since the calendar turned to May, Springs has been excellent: 3-2, 3.37 ERA, 58.2 IP, 45 hits, 16 BB, 45 K. That’s worthy of the #2-#3 SP the A’s dealt for.
Jacob Lopez
Who knows how good Lopez will prove to be? On one hand, he tops out around 91 MPH, tends to throw pitchouts when he’s trying to hit the outside corner, and overall he gives me Ryan Yarbrough vibes — Yarbrough has carved out a nice career for 7 years as a swing man (4.19 ERA) but is more of a fungible #5 SP type a la Mitch Spence.
Don’t sleep too hard on Lopez, though. On last night’s broadcast it was reported that the extension Lopez gets on his pitches ranks in the 99th-100th percentile, meaning he is releasing the ball closer to the batter than pretty much anyone in MLB. Statcast says “close but not quite” — it gives Lopez 93rd percentile rankings, which is still elite.
If you took Geometry in high school you know that rate = distance / time. So a pitcher throwing a pitch 91 MPH for 60.5 feet would take .664 seconds to get the ball to the plate.
But pitchers don’t throw pitches for 60.5 feet. They release the ball from much closer — but not all from the same amount closer. Average extension for a pitcher is 6.3 feet but Lopez is getting 7.1 feet this season. That’s a 12.7% extra boost.
Imagine Lopez with that late breaking slider, good changeup, deceptive “hide the ball” delivery, if he threw 95 MPH. Well, that’s what hitters are seeing and it has started to show up in the results: In 20.1 June innings Lopez has a 2.66 ERA with a whopping 32 strikeouts.
Luis Severino
Severino has disappointed fans who saw a pitcher signed to a “front of the rotation” contract and was quickly anointed the Opening Day starter. Severino is no ace, but he’s also a very worthy mid-rotation SP on a contending team.
His home/away splits have been confounding but when you put everything in aggregate, the fact is Severino is on pace for a 3.4 WAR season, partly because his 95.2 IP put him on a 190+ inning pace.
I have talked a lot about the “big 3” coming up quickly through the ranks: Jack Perkins, Luis Morales, and Gage Jump. Add a couple good young arms to the group the A’s have and with this group of position players you’re going to have the makings of a very good team.
Bullpen
I have long maintained that the future of bullpens is the 2+ inning “plus reliever” and the A’s have a chance to be at the forefront if they play their cards accordingly. I like JT Ginn as a high leverage 2-3 IP reliever, Hogan Harris might be more useful in that role, as would be Lopez if he were bumped from the rotation. In the minors, Blake Beers is back off the IL and could vie for a 2 IP gig as a reliever.
The A’s need to move away from their 1 inning “great arm, you don’t know what you’re going to get every outing, every inning, every pitch” relievers: Tyler Ferguson, Michel Otañez, Elvis Alvarado, the list goes on and on. And move towards a couple key “multi-inning” bridge relievers who can get you straight from the SP to the closer. The arms are there if the A’s embrace the concept.
Meanwhile, keep enjoying the raw talent that is taking the field right now on the infield and outfield, because win or lose these guys can be fun to watch. Pitchers, you’re next.