11 half-hearted 2nd half predictions

These are non-binding, unless we’re right.

I like to call Major League Baseball “The MLB” when I perceive them to have done something wrong. I think it’s bad and dumb that the MLB scheduled two off days after the All-Star Game. Now, that’s almost certainly a bargained position by the MLBPA, but it’s simply too much idle time in the post-middle part of the season. Now I have to generate a post predicting how the San Francisco Giants will do over their final 65 games.

As you might have read over at some point over the last day or so, the Giants have the easiest strength of schedule in baseball:

The breakdown goes: 6 against the Rockies (3 @ COL, 3 home), 4 against the Dodgers (4 @ Dodger Stadium, 4 against the A’s (2 home, 2 @ OAK), 3 against the Reds (3 @ CIN), 4 against the Nationals (all 4 in Washington), 3 against the Tigers (all at home), 4 against Atlanta (all at home), 3 against the White Sox (all at Oracle), 3 on the road against the Mariners, 6 against the Brewers (3 road/3 home), 3 against the Marlins at Oracle, 6 against the Diamondbacks (3 home/3 road), 6 against the Padres (3 road/3 home), 3 in Baltimore, 3 in Kansas City, and the season ends with 3 at home against the Cardinals.

The Nationals (-6.0), Tigers (-7.0), Rockies (-16.0), Marlins (-16.5), A’s (-17.5) and White Sox (-27.5) are all far outside the realm of the Wild Card picture, but the entire point of the Wild Card is that that’s subject to change in an instant. The Giants are just 3 games back, but there’s an interesting bunching or tiered progress:

The 3 NL Wild Cards as of now: Atlanta (53-42), St. Louis (50-46), New York (49-46). Just behind them: Arizona (49-48), San Diego (50-49), and Pittsburgh (48-48). And then there’s the Giants’ tier, where they follow Cincinnati (47-50), and are just ahead of the Cubs (47-51).

Through 97 games last season, the NL Wild Card picture looked like this:

And the final Wild Card standings looked like this:

So, while there was some movement, there wasn’t a lot of movement, and it was really only the Giants falling on their faces that created the final picture. Does this recent history suggest that 84 wins will be good enough? Could the Giants fold again in the second half as they did last year? Sure. Why not? We know what happened then — the offense collapsed — and it’s plausible that situation could repeat itself. Making such predictions is precisely the point of this post.

Technically, it’s not the second half so much as it is post All-Star break, and that’s not some distinction without a difference. The Giants have fewer than half their games remaining on the schedule and they’re basically the team they’re going to be, offensively.

It’s the pitching that promises — or, at least, was designed — to be transformative, as Robbie Rya, Alex Cobb, and a healthy Blake Snell ascend to strengthen the rotation and give the bullpen and the Jordan Hicks-Kyle Harrison part of the staff a little breathing room. Will that happen? Will the first half hitting stars continue? Will the failures find some success to salvage their season? I’m not sure. As I’ve said before, since we’re just rooting for the Giants to be lucky rather than good, heavy analysis isn’t necessary. We’re charting vibes.

So, here are 11 (6+5) half-hearted predictions for the Giants’ final 65 games.

The Giants will win at least 80 games

I hope that sounds as half-hearted as it reads. The Giants will need to go 33-32 for them to get to exactly 80 wins. Of course, we don’t know if that will be enough for them to actually clinch the third and final Wild Card. We know the front office hopes that’s the case. If they are to get to 84, then they’ll have to go 37-28. I can see the trio of starters coming in to help them stay above .500, but after that, my crystal ball is unclear. That said… I should probably make a prediction, right? Okay, I’ll do that at the end.

Alex Cobb will wind up back on the IL (if he ever comes off it)

This season looks a lot like the ned of the line for the veteran righty, and while that’s not quite a certainty, it seems more than likely that even if he’s activated within the next week that his injury track record will catch up to him before the end of the season. There are just 74 calendar days left in the season and so you see how even one 15-day IL stint could be a massive setback in terms of momentum. It’s unclear how many innings he’ll be able to provide at a time anyway.

Robbie Ray will be fine

He’s maybe going to get, what? 10 regular season starts? I’ll predict that he’s fine to good in 5 of them (4-6 IP 3-5 ER), great in 2 of them (6+ <3 ER), and bad in 3 of them (4 ER). If we fig

Blake Snell will be above average

What that means exactly is up to you. Last season after the All-Star break, he made 14 starts, pitched 82 innings and had a 1.54 ERA (3.27 FIP) along with an 8-2 record. The Padres were 10-4 in those games. The NL starting pitcher averages are a 4.21 ERA (4.11 FIP) with an 8.1 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9. That includes a 1.14 HR/9 and 11.7% HR/FB. I think he’ll do better than a 4.21 ERA and 4.11 FIP, even if he’s not going to improve upon the league average BB/9.

Heliot Ramos will wind up with 24 home runs

That’s just 10 more home runs over the team’s final 65. Seems plausible, but obviously because this is the Giants we’re talking about, likely improbable. Still, he’s got 14 in 60. He’s got 9 road games combined in Colorado, Cincinnati, and Milwaukee, and some other bad staffs at home he might be able to feast on. I think this one is doable. And, obviously, it’d be really something if a Giant led the team with 24 home runs in the yhear Willie Mays passed.

Wilmer Flores will heat up a little at some point

3 of his 4 home runs this season came in a 17-game stretch from mid-May to the beginning of June where he hit .273/.349/.473 (15-for-55). That run raises his season OPS from .557 to .650. Not good, but perhaps a sign that Flores would recapture some of that magic that made him the team’s best hitter last season? Nope. In the 17 games since that streak, he’s 8-for-54, a line of .148/.217/.204 (.420 OPS). He looks like he’s swinging a blanket and doesn’t appear to be having much fun out there. Still, you can very easily see him going on one last little semi-hot streak before the Giants are forced to make a decision about his roster spot, and that’s a prediction I’m saving for the next spot:

The Giants will cut Luke Jackson but not Wilmer Flores

Since I find it unlikely the Giants will be able to trade Jackson, I’ll predict that they cut him despite owing him a buyout next season (or else a full option). There’s a chance they could trade Wilmer Flores in a Darin Ruf-type situation. The Mets are in the Wild Card hunt, too. Maybe a reunion is possible? Anyway, I don’t think they’d risk cutting both players — not just for clubhouse reasons but also for appearances. So, just to be clear, Wilmer Flores might not stay put, but he won’t be cut. I’m predicting the Giants will cut Jackson.

Patrick Bailey will wind up the most valuable catcher in the National League

For reasons unknown, FanGraphs’ formulation for Patrick Bailey’s defensive valuation jumped his fWAR score from 2.6 to 3.5 over night. He currently leads all NL catchers in fWAR and #2 Will Smith by half a win. It helps a lot that he’s hitting 25% better than the league average, and I think — nay, I predict — he will keep it up.

The Giants will have just one more winning month the rest of the way

Save 2021, it’s very rare that the Giants have winning months. This season, they managed to have one in May (15-13). Last year, it was May (17-12) and June (18-8). They’re setup to have another winning month here in July (currently 6-6). They’d need only go 7-5 against the Rockies (6 games), Dodgers (4) and A’s (2). Still, they’ll need to do better than that in either August or September, and that’s what my prediction focuses on. Maybe they’ll have a winning month here in July or go 12-12, but the prediction is that they’ll win more than they lose in either August or September, but not both.

They won’t fix Camilo Doval

Not really. He’s going to have good days and bad in a non-closer situation, and might even regain it. But at least for this season, he’s lost trust. He could win it back when the stakes are lower (next April), but for now, 2024 is a lost season for him.

The Giants will end the regular season on a positive note

Here is where I will make my prediction as to their final record: 83-79. Even if they don’t make the postseason, there will still be some positives to take away. I know many fans have already settled into the belief that “no matter what happens, they got Ramos out of this season. Look what’s going on with Hayden Birdsong.” But I contend that we’ll see Marco Luciano come up and do well — or Mason Black pitch well. Or somebody already doing well take a step forward. The point is, even if the Giants don’t make the postseason and Kim Ng replaces Farhan Zaidi in the offseason, she will have a lot to work with and we’ll have something to look forward to next season. (This theoretical is a joke, by the way.)

Now that I’ve blathered on with my predictions, what are yours?