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2026 Cy Young Award Dark Horses: Six Pitchers Ready to Flip the Script

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Every spring, the Cy Young Award conversation begins the same way.

A short list of aces dominates previews — the flamethrowers with viral highlights, the former winners, the pitchers already penciled into October lore. But baseball history tells a different story. For every chalk Cy Young season, there’s another shaped by evolution, health, and timing — the year when a pitcher on the fringe puts it all together and refuses to be ignored.

As the league barrels toward the 2026 season, a new group of arms sits just beneath the surface. They’re not the betting favorites. They’re not the names casual fans circle first. But each has the stuff, role, and trajectory to force his way into the Cy Young race.

Here are three dark horses from each league who could turn upside down into dominance — and votes.

2026 Cy Young Award Dark Horses: American League

Hunter Brown — Houston Astros

Hunter Brown’s breakout has already happened. What comes next may be even bigger.

After finishing third in AL Cy Young voting in 2025, Brown enters 2026 no longer as a prospect or project, but as a fully established frontline starter — one still ascending. His fastball velocity remains elite, his breaking pitches miss bats in bunches, and his confidence attacking the zone has grown season by season.

What separates Brown from other power arms is context. He pitches deep into games, doing so for a perennial contender, and he now owns the trust of a staff that has long been defined by its October credibility. If Brown trims even a fraction of his hard contact rate and holds his command gains across 180-plus innings, his Cy Young candidacy won’t feel theoretical — it’ll feel inevitable.

Aug 13, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown (58) pitches against the Boston Red Sox in the second inning at Daikin Park. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

Cole Ragans — Kansas City Royals

Cy Young winners often come from unexpected places, and Cole Ragans fits that mold perfectly.

Once viewed as a change-of-scenery arm, Ragans has transformed himself into one of the nastiest left-handers in the American League. His fastball explodes at the top of the zone, his secondary pitches generate ugly swings, and his strikeout ability already plays at an ace level.

The next step is efficiency. If Ragans converts dominance into deeper outings — turning five-and-fly starts into seven-inning statements — his numbers will jump quickly. On a Royals team (still, despite recent trade rumors) building toward relevance, Ragans has a chance to become the rare Cy Young finalist whose value transcends wins and losses. Dominance travels, even when the spotlight doesn’t.

Bryan Woo — Seattle Mariners

Seattle’s rotation is loaded with talent, which may be the very reason Bryan Woo remains overlooked.

When healthy, Woo displays exceptional fastball command, deception, and poise that far exceed his service time. His ability to attack hitters early and avoid self-inflicted damage gives him a profile voters increasingly respect: clean innings, low WHIP, and steady run suppression.

The key variable is durability. If Woo finally clears the 170–180 inning threshold in 2026, pitching in one of baseball’s most forgiving environments with elite defense behind him, his statistical résumé could look far louder than his reputation. Cy Young cases aren’t always built on flash — sometimes they’re built on relentless efficiency.

2026 Cy Young Award Dark Horses: National League

David Peterson — New York Mets

Every Cy Young race has a surprise name. David Peterson has the ingredients to be that story.

Peterson’s evolution has been quiet but meaningful. Once inconsistent, he’s reshaped his profile into that of a ground-ball machine with improved swing-and-miss ability. When healthy, he limits damage, neutralizes right-handed hitters, and keeps his team in games — traits that don’t trend on social media but win votes when paired with volume.

In a Mets rotation searching for reliability, Peterson could emerge as a stabilizing force who piles up quality starts. If New York rebounds competitively in 2026, Peterson’s value — innings, efficiency, and run prevention — could stand out sharply against flashier but less dependable arms.

Logan Webb — San Francisco Giants

Logan Webb may be the most consistently excellent pitcher in baseball who still feels underappreciated.

Year after year, Webb takes the ball, works deep into games, and suppresses contact as well as anyone in the league. His command is elite, his sinker devastates hitters, and his ability to induce weak contact plays in any park, against any lineup.

What keeps Webb labeled a “dark horse” is perception. He doesn’t chase strikeout titles. He doesn’t light up radar guns. But if his strikeout rate ticks up just slightly in 2026 — and history suggests it can — Webb’s combination of durability and efficiency could give him a case that’s impossible to ignore in a league often defined by attrition.

Hunter Greene — Cincinnati Reds

Few pitchers in baseball have a ceiling as high as Hunter Greene’s.

Greene’s raw stuff is breathtaking: triple-digit velocity, explosive breaking pitches, and the ability to overwhelm hitters in short bursts. The challenge has always been refinement — harnessing that power over a full season while limiting walks and big innings.

If 2026 is the year Greene finds that balance, the results could be overwhelming. Strikeout totals matter. Dominance matters. And when Greene is right, he offers both in abundance. In a league that increasingly values swing-and-miss supremacy, Greene’s path to Cy Young contention is as clear as it is tantalizing.

Why Dark Horses Win Cy Youngs

Cy Young voters reward more than hype. They reward health, consistency, and impact. Almost every season, at least one pitcher breaks through from outside the preseason favorite tier — not because expectations were wrong, but because growth isn’t always linear.

Each of these six pitchers sits at a crossroads where opportunity meets ability. If the timing aligns, 2026 could be remembered not as the year the Cy Young favorites coasted — but as the year a new ace class announced itself.

And when the ballots are counted, don’t be surprised if at least one of these names is standing where few expected him to be: at the center of the Cy Young conversation.

Main Photo Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images