It’s back in all its glory and cursing power!
Last week, with a minor closer controversy brewing (though quickly settled), Brady and Sami asked if it was time for me to bring back McCovey Chronicles’ Bullpen Trust Power Rankings. I said, “Well, that was not one of my running series, that was Doug Bruzzone’s.” To which they replied, “Oh dang! Sorry, we thought you had written something good once.” Then I said, “Well, let me ask him if we could pick it up again.”
Doug, a cool dude who was my longtime co-host on McCovey Chronicles’ podcast, The McCovey Chroncast, and who writes about the San Francisco Giants over on his Substack, got back to me after I reached out:
If you want to be the one who curses members of the bullpen by ranking them first, then feel free. LET’S SEE HOW BAD YOU SUCK AFTER NICE WORDS ARE SAID ABOUT YOU, RANDY RODRIGUEZ.
if you rank someone first and he’s still good a month later, then you’re doing it wrong and bringing shame to the bullpen power rankings
This has been the curse of the Bullpen Trust Power Rankings. When Doug dusted it off back in 2018, he kicked off the relaunch with this reminder: “those articles had this tendency to kinda accidentally curse whoever I ranked first, which is why last year I abandoned the bit.”
If you’re new here and you don’t know what any of this means, I hope the name of the series makes it clear. We’re ranking the Giants’ bullpen arms based on their trustworthiness, from least to most. During the Zaidi years, this was a tough task, with so many bodies flying onto and off of the roster. Not the case in Buster Posey’s first year.
8. Lou Trivino
In his last appearance — a week ago — he gave up a grand slam and a 2-run home run in 2⁄3 of an inning. I’m sure it’s happened before with a reliever, but I can’t remember the last time I saw it. Indeed, a reliever has given up 2 home runs in 2⁄3 of an inning just 43 times in the history of the Giants. And only 7 times has it happened where the pitcher allowed 5 earned runs in the appearance (the rest were 4 or fewer). Most impressively, Trivino’s appearance is, in fact, just the second time when those 5 runs have come via a grand slam plus a 2-run home run. Trevor Gott did it last back in 2020 against the A’s in the top of the 9th of a game the Giants were winning 7-2.
Without getting too far off track here, you’ll note that a grand slam plus a 2-run homer is 6 runs. Well, Trivino did inherit one of those runners in the grand slam, and that just as much as he penchant for getting rocked is why he’s the least trustworthy. With runners on base: .278/.381/.778. He’s been impressively bad in just one month! What is his ultimate role? Long reliever? Garbage time guy? Occasional leverage spots? He doesn’t feel like he fits in any of them. It turns out Bob Melvin’s trusted arm is a stick of dynamite.
7. Spencer Bivens
When a starter begins to falter, the first man up in the bullpen is Spencer Bivens. I think he’s warming up at a rate of 3:1 — that is, three times for every actual in-game appearance. He’s made 8 appearances here in the early going and while that 2.25 ERA in 12 IP looks nice, that 4.23 FIP does not. But, if you look at his work just here in April (10.1 IP), he’s got a 0.00 ERA and 3.26 FIP. He’s mostly used in these bailout roles or when there are big deficits or comfortable leads, so, it’s not as though he’s being relied on to do too much. He’s succeeded in the role the Giants have him in for now and that’s good enough.
6. Erik Miller
As the Giants’ sole left-handed reliever, his job, mainly, is to get out left-handed hitters when he faces them. Against lefties this season: .091/.286/.091 (15 PA), so, good work, Erik Miller. On the other hand, righties are slashing .316/.391/.368 in 23 PA. That’s not great. Last season, righties hit .230/.330/.421 off him in 176 PA, so, this stark split is probably here to stay. Great when he has to face Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman back-to-back, but bad when the three-batter minimum means Mookie Betts or Enrique Hernandez follow them.
5. Ryan Walker
Now why on earth would I do this? It’s quite simply. He had two scary blowups in the first month of the season. His 5.91 ERA is scary-looking, but his 2.22 FIP is not, which means he will probably be fine the rest of the season. On the other hand, he threw 80 innings last season. The Giants worked him hard. In 2023, the Giants worked Camilo Doval so hard that in 2024 they demoted him to the minors due to poor performance. I’ve been keeping an eye on Walker this season for this very reason — not because I distrust his stuff or his focus but because health supersedes all of that, and the Giants might’ve simply used him so hard last season that it impacts him this season. Still, I expect him to jump back up this list pretty hard a month from now. Everyone likes an underdog story, too — right?
4. Randy Rodríguez
16 strikeouts against ZERO walks in 11.2 innings pitched? ZERO runs allowed? He’s amazing. Earlier this month, FanGraphs suggested he’s America’s Next Top Reliever.
3. Hayden Birdsong
He’s not quite Randy Rodriguez (18 strikeouts in 16 IP but 6 walks and a pair of runs allowed in Philadelphia), but the reason why I’m putting him here instead of behind Randy is because of the hype. There are many fans who want him in the rotation. He’s supposed to be in the rotation. The Giants have enough options there — even a wonky Jordan Hicks — that he has to be here, and he’s delivering. The extra trust of “this guy could start” is what gives him the edge over who might be the actual best reliever in the Giants’ pen right now.
2. Tyler Rogers
Randy Rodriguez might be the best reliever in the pen right now, but best doesn’t necessarily mean trusted, and it’s hard to be more trustworthy than Tyler Rogers. He just proves his value year after year, situation after situation. His 0.63 ERA (2.58 FIP) in 14.1 IP is wonderful and his 13 strikeouts against 2 walks is astonishing. He’s not going to hold an 8.2 K/9 the rest of the way, but when the Giants are desperate for outs, he’s always there.
1. Camilo Doval
When Ryan Walker faltered, the Giants didn’t turn to Tyler Rogers or Randy Rodriguez, they turned to Camilo Doval, the disgraced former closer (kidding, kidding). All Doval did was reward the team for their trust in him and this April has gone a long way towards repairing the reputation he had tarnished last season. Even this season, he sported a 5.06 ERA (4.57 FIP) through his first 6 appearances, but since April 12th, he’s given up 0 runs and has a 1.76 FIP (8 strikeouts against 2 walks in 7.2 IP). He saved all three of the Giants wins in their home series against the Brewers and got the win in Sunday’s wild game. This spot belonged to him in 2022 and 2023. Welcome back to the top of the heap, Camilo Doval! Your task now is to avoid the curse of being the #1 guy.