Good enough or not enough good?
The San Francisco Giants had the best bullpen by ERA in the month of May and we all felt like they had a real strength that put them on equal footing with the top tier teams in the sport. That’s no longer the case! In June, their 3.95 ERA was 11th in MLB and by value (fWAR), they were 16th. There’s been a lot of upheaval in the bullpen, though, and the best arms have gotten a lot of use. Has it all added up to midseason burnout? As you’ll see, it’s impacted the latest Bullpen Trust Power Rankings.
Last month, some starters joined the relief corps and the top spot remained unchanged. June saw a lot of changes to the mix, though. Did the month forever alter our trust in the bullpen? Read this list before you head off to your 4th of July barbecue! If there’s an argument at the grill about relievers, you’ll be able to correct any wrongthink!
Declared ineligible for these rankings: Kyle Harrison and Jordan Hicks, who are no longer with the team. Logan Porter, who pitched an inning in the blowout loss to the Dodgers. He’s the second position player to pitch for the Giants this season (Christian Koss being the other). Position players become eligible for this list upon their second appearance. And away we go…
10. Sean Hjelle | May: n/a | June stats: 8.1 IP 7 ER 4/6 K/BB -0.19 WPA
Diminished velocity, worse performance, and off the field issues have all made him the least trustworthy arm in the bullpen and player on the roster at this point.
9. Tristan Beck | May: 7th | June stats: 6.1 IP 5 ER 1/4 K/BB +0.04 WPA
As a Beck Booster, I was dismayed to see diminished velocity and an undisciplined slider during his first call-up this season. His 2023 season mirrored Hjelle’s 2024 season, and now they’re having similar 2025s. Baseball!
8. Joey Lucchesi | May: n/a | June stats: 5 IP 3 ER 3/1 K/BB -0.16 WPA
You watch him pitch and you don’t see a guy who is likely to get high leverage spots. Remarkably, FanGraphs’ wins above replacement formula puts him ahead of Erik Miller, 0.1 to 0.0.
7. Ryan Walker | May: 4th | June stats: 12.2 IP 7 R (6 ER) 11/2 K/BB -0.77 WPA
The Giants sent down Tyler Fitzgerald recently to see if he could hit the reset button like how Camilo Doval did last season. Maybe Ryan Walker should be the player who completes this development trilogy? He’s not only been bad, he’s looked awful.
6. Carson Seymour | May: n/a | June stats: 1 IP 0 R 0 BB 0 K +0.01 WPA
Yes, I’m being hypocritical by dinging Joey Lucchesi for a small sample size but not doing that in this case. I trust the guy I know little about to confuse major league hitters for a week or two until he gets figured out, and that’s more than I can say for the players behind him on this list.
5. Spencer Bivens | May: 6th | June stats: 12.2 IP 6 R (5 ER) 13/5 K/BB -0.12 WPA
He landed here almost by default. He doesn’t improve the team’s chances of winning, but most of the time, he doesn’t dig them a bigger hole. All that said, just how trustworthy can a mop-up reliever be? Well, that he’s so high on this list might speak to the current state of the Giants’ relief corps after heavy use through the first three months of the season.
4. Erik Miller | May: 9th | June stats: 10.1 IP 2 ER 6/7 K/BB +0.54 WPA
I don’t know how he’s doing it. Five weeks ago I wrote about how his propensity for walks is antithetical to long-term success, and yet he’s managed to dance around them and had success all season long. He’s been their sole lefty and been a good one. Perhaps it speaks to the state of the rest of the ‘pen that he’s so high up on the list this month. He certainly doesn’t engender the same feeling of security as these next three arms.
3. Randy Rodríguez | May: 3rd | June stats: 11 IP 3 R (1 ER) 16/4 K/BB +0.21 WPA
An argument could be made that he should be higher on this list, but as mentioned in last month’s ranking, his role as a rapid response arm who can come in at any point of the game adds a degree of volatility that makes it a bit more difficult to trust him when he comes into the game. Still, the 29 other teams would love to have him.
2. Camilo Doval | May: 1st | June stats: 12 IP 9 R (8 ER) 13/8 K/BB +0.47 WPA
It’s slightly premature to declare that Doval is backsliding into the version that got demoted last season, but let’s at least keep an eye on it. For the most part, he had a solid-ish month, and after being the most trusted arm in the bullpen for the first two rankings of the season, a slipup is warranted. We’ll see how the next month shakes out, but he’s still worked hard enough to be considered one of the bullpen’s top arms.
1. Tyler Rogers | May: 2nd | June stats: 14.2 IP 3 ER 8/1 K/BB +0.52 WPA
Sure, he blew the game against the Marlins, but the first two hits of that 8th inning had exit velocities of 62 mph and 84 mph with expected batting averages of .170 and .080, respectively. That’s what happens when Tyler Rogers has a bad inning. His home run to Eugenio Suarez in last night’s game was a no-doubter, of course, and it’s not like he’s the most talented arm in the ‘pen, but in terms of trust, especially in the 8th or 9th inning, he’s the most trustworthy guy.
All relievers are fungible and going to the bullpen is reliever roulette. Some months a dude is up, sometimes he’s down. This is the frustration and the mystery of the bullpen trust power rankings. In addition to the player movement, June was our first indicator that maybe the Giants aren’t as solid in the bullpen as we thought after the first couple of months.