It could go great. It could go horribly. That’s baseball.
There are few things more exciting in baseball than an MLB debut. One of those few things? An MLB debut from a hot prospect who has a glimmer of a chance of helping shape the next decade of baseball for your favorite team.
That will transpire tonight, when Carson Whisenhunt takes the mound for the San Francisco Giants as they face the Pittsburgh Pirates. It’s a moment that’s been worth anticipating since the Giants used their second-round pick on the East Carolina southpaw back in 2022. Since then he’s flown through the Minors, entered top 100 lists, stalled out in AAA, and exited top 100 lists.
And now the next leg of his journey gets underway.
It’s thrilling. It’s exciting. It’s the most must-see Giants game since Rafael Devers was acquired.
And it’s also risky and a touch concerning.
The idea of a Whisenhunt debut rose to he surface in May, when a brilliant set of starts from the soon-to-be 25-year old coincided with a Justin Verlander injury, and thus a need for another arm. Whisenhunt cruised through seven innings in each of his first four starts to the month, allowing just 18 hits, two walks, and four earned runs during those 28 innings, while striking out 28 batters.
He became a hot topic, and many — including beat reporters close to the team — wondered aloud if his time had come.
It had not. The Giants, understandably, opted for Kyle Harrison instead, choosing the experience of someone with MLB starts under their belt, the practicality of a player already on the 40-man roster, and the ceiling of the higher-rated prospect, who also happened to be younger.
And while Harrison worked his way through a few starts and was ultimately traded, Whisenhunt stayed in AAA, attempting to build on that brilliant stretch and knock the door down.
It’s at this point in the story where we reach the risk and concern. The changeup artist did not build on that brilliant stretch or knock the door down, but instead went in the opposite direction. Here’s his line in nine starts since his star run: 46.2 innings, 58 hits, 21 walks, 31 earned runs, and 34 strikeouts.
But it hasn’t been a case of a few blowups tainting his line — Whisenhunt has been consistently poor in those outings. His last start, in which he gave up five hits and a run in 3.2 innings, is comfortably his best showing during that time.
Of course, when projecting Major League performance based on Minor League outcomes, it’s best to eschew the basic stats in favor of what’s under the hood, especially for pitchers taking the mound in the Coors Field-esque Pacific Coast League.
But those show scary signs as well. Whisenhunt has, to his credit, cut his year-over-year walk rate nearly in half, but it hasn’t been the result of pounding the strike zone. During that nine-start stretch, he’s thrown just 63.1% of his pitches for strikes, a comfortable number but not an overpowering one, and a sharp drop from his performance earlier in the season.
His fastball velocity has dipped, and with it, his swinging strike rate, which was 15.5% in AAA last year but just 12.3% this year. That’s led to a massive drop-off in strikeouts, from 11.6 per nine innings to 7.9 (relative to the rest of the league, he went from 9th out of 92 PCL pitchers to 26th out of 55 pitchers).
The changeup remains one of the very best in all of baseball — at any level — and it’s worth tuning into tonight’s game just to see that majestic pitch. But watching him in AAA, there are stretches where he looks like someone trying to find a functional fastball and, when he’s unable to manifest the success he’s looking for, turns to ol’ reliable to put away a helpless Minor League hitter. Suffice to say, it’s not a strategy that figures to work against more advanced bats, who will force Whisenhunt to do what he’s so far been unable to do in AAA: find the strike zone with his fastball, and then get outs with it.
Even the Giants seem to be somewhat concerned. Buster Posey has long said he wants prospect to beat down the doors before making the Majors so, given Whisenhunt’s recent performance, there seems to be an implied admission that this debut is driven more by the holes on the Major League roster than the plugs in the Minor League one. After Sunday’s loss, Bob Melvin’s words about Whisenhunt only amplified that sentiment: “We’ve been waiting for this for a little bit now. We thought maybe he’d be here last year, too. With what’s gone on here … there’s a need for it.”
That’s not exactly biting criticism, but it’s not really an endorsement of ability, either. One always hopes the focal point of the promotion is the promoted player, not the dire situation that forced the hand, even when the hand is, indeed, forced.
Of course, it needs to be stated and reminded that many players perform better in the Majors than in the Minors. Camilo Doval couldn’t throw a strike to save his soul when he was promoted, and yet slashed his walk rate by nearly 60% as soon as he got to San Francisco. Whisenhunt will be facing more advanced hitters, sure, but he’ll also be pitching in better ballparks for his game, throwing to (and having his pitch selection chosen by) the best defensive catcher in baseball, and trusting a group of MLB-quality defenders behind him. That might be exactly what he needs to actualize his immense talent, and find the results that had him pitching in AAA after just 20 games in the pros.
It’s risky and it’s concerning and it might go horribly. But then again, that’s just life for ya.