Let’s take a look back at how great the Giants were in the first month of the season.
The San Francisco Giants are off to a great start this season and with one month out of the season’s six now in the books, let’s take a look at all that good stuff.
The record
16-11 isn’t their best April in a long time (they were 16-10 in 2021 and 14-7 in 2022), and even with their March games that make them 19-12 doesn’t exceed recent success (18-12 in 2021, 19-12 in 2022); but, they’re off to their best start since the last time the Giants were good, and they’ve done it against a tough schedule. Cincinnati, Houston, Seattle, the Yankees, Phillies, Angels, Brewers, Rangers, and Padres are a combined 148-125.
Reason to remain optimistic: I don’t see this getting any easier — every team playing each other in a season stymies any truly long run of lowered competition — but I do see a more resilient team with strong strengths.
Possible downside: As teams have acclimated to regular season competition coming out of Spring Training, the Giants have struggled a bit more with their lineup and there are some question marks in the rotation (Jordan Hicks, potentially Justin Verlander) that could lead to some strain on the relief corps. Bob Melvin is a player’s manager, but he’s not known for being a skillful in-game manager.
Pitching
Their 3.66 staff ERA is merely 10th-best in MLB, but their FIP/xFIP is 5th-best, meaning they’re inducing weak contact — or not very much contact. Indeed, their 9.09 K/9 is 8th in MLB, just behind San Diego’s 9.10. They are walking hitters more than average (3.4 BB/9 -16th in MLB), but between the minimal contact and few home runs (0.80 HR/9 – 3rd in MLB), it’s not yet coming around to hurt them.
Logan Webb’s sinker remains one of the best pitches in Major League Baseball — +6 in Run Value after the first month of the season, according to Statcast (9th in MLB). It has been as valuable as Hunter Greene’s 100 mph fastball. Tyler Roger’s sinker is a +4 and Camilo Doval’s cutter is a +3. At the start of last season, you would’ve considered this trio part of the spine of the Giants’ pitching plans.
Doval’s resurgence in particular is cause for celebration. J.P. Martinez is the exact pitching coach they needed for this moment and it looks like the Buster Posey-induced vibe shift for the entire organization is exactly what Doval needed to get back on track. We’ll see if this restored version of him holds up over the season and as the pressure changes, but it was an unequivocally great start to his 2025 and for the pitching staff in general.
Reason to remain optimistic: Bryan Price is no longer with the organization. If there’s one thing we could expect a neophyte exec like Buster Posey to know without much time on the job, it’s evaluating pitchers.
Possible downside: Justin Verlander could be rounding into form or, because of his advanced age and all the mileage on that arm and shoulder, could simply have good days and bad days. Jordan Hicks might not figure out what to do with his fastball — he’s been struggling with it for years. The Padres got a workout against the pitching staff this week and could be a portent of the next month, when the Giants will face the Cubs in Chicago, the Twins on the road, and then Arizona and the Athletics.
Defense
The Giants do not have an elite defense, but it’s certainly solid. Just going by FanGraphs’ observations:
C — +5.2 Def (5th in MLB, 2nd in NL)
1B — -4.3 Def (29th in MLB, 14th in NL)
2B — -0.4 Def (19th in MLB, 11th in NL)
3B — +3.8 Def (3rd in MLB, 2nd in NL)
SS — -3.2 Def (29th in MLB, 15th in NL)
LF — -2.3 Def (19th in MLB, 10th in NL
CF — +0.8 Def (13th in MLB, 8th in NL)
RF — -2.4 Def (20th in MLB, 10th in NL)
If only 1⁄3 of your lineup is above average, it sort of hurts your whole pitching & defense plan, but let’s figure second base has been basically average. That means the real problem spots have been first base and shortstop. We can assume first base doesn’t get better until Bryce Eldridge is ready to go or Marco Luciano learns yet another new position. I’m not sure what they do with Adames over at short. Those two spots have amassed quite the negative reputation in so short a time (1 month) and are on pace to account for 6 losses in the season (every 10 runs is supposed to equal 1 win).
As a team, the Giants’ -6.2 Defensive Runs Above Average ranks them at 22nd in MLB and 11th in the NL.
Reason to remain optimistic: It’s plausible that Adames can still provide value there. It’s plausible that these could all be surprising numbers to the team that get sorted out over the next few months.
Possible downside: It’s still early!
Hitting
The Giants are 12th in runs scored (8th in the NL) and their 9.9% team walk rate is 8th. These values have remained consistent through the first month of the season, but their power numbers have dropped precipitously. Through April 15th: .188 ISO, 100 wRC+. Since April 16th: .149 ISO, 85 wRC+.
But! We’re sticking with the good news for the moment. Wilmer Flores showed us that he’s back after season-ending knee surgery in 2024. Despite a line of .229/.282/.422, he’s got 7 home runs and 28 RBI, leading the team in both categories.
Jung Hoo Lee has returned from season-ending shoulder surgery in 2024 and quickly built up a case that he should be the face of the franchise. His .319/.375/.526 line (150 wRC+) is simply outstanding. He and Mike Yastrzemski (148 wRC+) are both in the top 30 of MLB hitters after the first month of the season.
The Giants are 5th in the NL with 115 walks, just 3 fewer than the Dodgers. They’re 2nd in the NL in fewest double plays hit into (13) — 3rd in MLB behind the Cubs (11) and Royals (13). They’ve managed to steal 21 bases in 28 attempts.
Reason to remain optimistic: Matt Chapman’s .191 batting average is being buoyed by a solid walk rate — he’s currently tied with Marcell Ozuna for most walks drawn (26). The Giants have been unlucky with their balls in play (team BAbip of .277 – 24th in MLB). Willy Adames will get it going at some point and LaMonte Wade Jr. might be rounding into form. Five of the Giants’ regulars are all above average hitters:
Jung Hoo Lee (150 wRC+)
Mike Yastrzemski (148)
Tyler Fitzgerald (118)
Matt Chapman (114)
Heliot Ramos (102)
Possible downside: In the Rockies Series Preview, I note that the Giants’ lineup has been below league average the past two weeks. On the one hand, that’s not the end of the world when the pitching has been good, but on the other hand, the Giants’ offense has been below league average in 7 of the last 10 seasons. The only time they haven’t been was 2020-2022. And if you are one of those fans who think, “Well, the Giants never had good offense in the championship years,” I must disagree… to an extent!
2010: 98 wRC+
2012: 101 wRC+
2014: 99 wRC+
That’s not “good,” but that’s essentially average. Through their first 31 games in 2025, their team line of .227/.307/.376 is worth a 93 wRC+. That won’t cut it, and it’s plausible that even if Adames and Wade Jr. pick it up, that others elsewhere will falter or not get much better and the team’s ceiling might not be much better than it is right now.
Wilmer Flores is already close to being a league average hitter (97 wRC+), so you can imagine he has another couple of hot streaks in him to jump over that. Willy Adames is at 71 LaMonte Wade Jr. is down in the 40s, and Patrick Bailey is 23. These are the three big problems. Those are a lot of plate appearances from some truly putrid hitters… in the first month of the season…
Still, this is better than expected and about as good as could be hoped for — all that’s happening now is that the well-known flaws are asserting themselves a bit more lately than they were in the beginning. Navigating flaws is something each of us must do every day of our lives, and the good news for our favorite baseball team is that they’ll be managing them with a winning record to kickoff May.
Memories
I’ve been keeping a log of memorable in-game moments to start the season, and I like that there are already multiple ones on the list. The Giants are, after all, in the memory-making business. We had the Opening Day come from behind win, this nutty double play by Matt Chapman two games later:
Mike Yastrzemski’s walk-off splash hit:
And just to put in one that wasn’t against the Reds, there was the walkoff the other day:
I hit 1 home run in little league that went almost exactly like this, except I scorched a ball past the shortstop to get it all started. This might be the only time Heliot Ramos and I have anything remotely in common.