Two tricky offseasons for teams in transition. Does their early season success serve as a portent?
It was funny watching the main analytics writers of MLB struggle with naming the San Francisco Giants the “Team of the 2010s.” They so wanted to give it to the Astros and, indeed, I think most of them did, but I bring it up to point out how these two teams do stand side by side here in 2025.
The former NL West rivals have had a lot of success and at points throughout the past 15 years or so have been considered Baseball’s Peak or Baseball’s Pit. Today, they’re somewhere in the middle and are keenly interested in charting a new future that eschews the strict analytics approach that recently defined them.
The Astros have shifted from a McKinsey and sociopath-driven management style to a scouting/player-focused one. the Giants have shifted from Billy Beane acolytes to Buster Posey. They both seem to be part of a growing shift sport-wide (the Rangers and Red Sox are two other teams that have moved to this setup), and the very early returns seem to be going okay, even if there’s some unpopular choices being made along the way.
The Astros traded away Kyle Tucker in the offseason and let Alex Bregman walk. One player a potential franchise fixture, the other one who helped redefine them for the 21st century. Is that the equivalent of letting Blake Snell walk? Nope, but it goes to show how this franchise has approached its transition out of its championship era. They were content with keeping Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez and switching things up elsewhere. The Giants never did this and we’re still feeling the effects of that decision.
For their troubles, Houston got from the Cubs in exchange for Tucker third baseman Cam Smith, the #14 overall pick of the 2024 MLB Draft. Former Giant and current Astro Mauricio Dubon declares that he’ll be a 60-home run guy once he figures it all out. He was taken one pick after the Giants’ pick, James Tibbs III (ranked #3 overall in the Giants’ system, according to the McCovey Chronicles community). Let’s hope this isn’t another Hunter Bishop over Corbin Carroll situation for our favorite squadron.
But he’s been a huge infusion of infectious joy for the Astros. His mom was brought in to tell him that he’d made the Opening Day roster out of Spring Training, and this media hit stuck in my mind — I don’t even care about another team’s top prospect!
Moms. They sure do a lot for us, don’t they?
Anyway, the Astros have become more player-focused (like the Giants!), but they’ve also done things like move Jose Altuve to left field, picked up Rockies non-tender Brendan Rodgers to replace him at second base, and signed Christian Walker to be their new first baseman, shifting traded-for Isaac Paredes from his best position (first) to Alex Bregman’s old spot (third). Cam Smith, drafted as a third baseman, is in instead replacing Kyle Tucker in right field. Remarkably, outfielder Chas McCormick — best remembered as the dingus who publicly complained about playing time under Dusty Baker — has been relegated to the bench. Haven’t heard him complain about it, though.
Their pitching group is without Justin Verlander for the first time in a long time (yes, he signed with the Mets recently, but he wound up right back on the Astros) but looks to be a group they’re hoping will remain a strength. Last decade, once the team finished its multiple years of 100+ losses rebuild, it had the second-best pitching group in the sport. From 2015-2019, their team fWAR of 108.3 trailed only Cleveland. Their 481 wins trailed only the Dodgers. And for the Jeff Berrys out there, their team ERA of 3.71 was fourth-best, behind the Dodgers, Cubs, and Cleveland.
Over the weekend, they held the New York Mets to just 5 runs.
Remarkably, the Giants have won the last three season series (2021, 2023, 2024). They had a really nice weekend in Cincinnati with decent starting pitching, stellar bullpen work, and great work from the lineup. We’ll get to see two season debuts this time around (Jordan Hicks & Landen Roupp) and see just how much of a factor the team’s all right-handed bench plays in this one. There are three lefties in Houston’s pen: closer Josh Hader, Bryan King, and former Giant, Steve Okert.
Series overview
Who: San Francisco Giants at Houston Astros
Where: Daikin Park | Houston, Texas
When: Monday & Tuesday – 5:10pm PT, Wednesday – 1:10pm PT
National broadcasts: None.
Projected starters (2024 Stats)
Monday: Jordan Hicks (4-7, 4.10 ERA) vs. Ronel Blanco (13-6, 2.80 ERA)
Tuesday: Logan Webb (2025: 0-0, 5.40 ERA) vs. Hayden Wesneski (3-6, 3.86 ERA)
Wednesday: Landen Roupp (1-2, 3.58 ERA) vs. Framber Valdez (2025: 1-0, 4.76 ERA)
Where they stand
Giants, 2-1 (3rd in NL West), 14 RS / 10 RA | Projected W-L: 83-79
Astros, 2-1 (2nd in AL West), 6 RS / 5 RA | Projected W-L: 84-78
Astros to watch
Christian Walker: He went just 1-for-12 against the Mets this past weekend but against the current Giants pitching staff he has a career .864 OPS (22-for-70). Pitchers are usually ahead of hitters at this point of the season, but when it comes to former division rivals I submit… maybe not?
Yainer Díaz: A little over a month ago, he received a glowing writeup in FanGraphs that looked at his batted ball data and suggested a breakout was on the horizon. Against the Mets, he wound up being one of their worst situation hitters, going 1-for-7 with an RBI, a walk, and a pair of strikeouts and generating -13.9 Win Probability Added. That’s a very, very small sample size, so don’t be surprised if he winds up getting some big hits in the series.
Framber Valdez: Every year, he and Logan Webb vie for the league lead in groundball rate. He is not quite the left-handed Logan Webb and the differences are important: he walks guys more, he gives up more home runs, but he also strikes out more batters on average. It’s a shame Logan Webb won’t be matched up against him in this series so we can see two aces go at it.
Giants to watch
Camilo Doval: With Ryan Walker experiencing back problems, 1 or 2 of the games in this series might come down to Doval pitching in the 9th or in a critical leverage spot after the 7th. He probably doesn’t have much more to go to earn back the trust of the coaching staff — and maybe not even many in the fanbase — so this will be a good early season test.
Tyler Fitzgerald: The Astros’ starting staff is much more of a groundball staff than a strikeout group and so if he can focus on putting the ball in play I’d like to see him use his speed to get on base more. His Opening Day swings were not encouraging, but he pretty quickly turned his series around and it was in part because of feet.
Jordan Hicks & Landen Roupp: We’re already at the point where it’s fair to put both of these pitchers’ starts under a microscope because cooling Hayden Birdsong out in the bullpen doesn’t seem like a wise decision. Landen Roupp has been a favorite of the organization for a couple of years now, and when healthy would seem to be their preferred pitcher over Birdsong. But that health seems like the reason he might lose his spot to Birdsong — it might be a surprise if it’s because of performance.
Hicks on the other hand? Well, I’m not so sure if he’s setup to pitch himself out of a spot. Fans seem to have turned on Jordan Hicks because of his final few starts, forgetting that through May he was one of the teams best pitchers. The same Blake Snell injury/bad pitching plan heading into the season that necessitated Birdsong’s callup is the same context for Hicks’ midseason collapse. They pushed a guy converting from reliever to starter and it wound up making him ineffective — and then injured. Will that carry over to this year? Possibly. Pitchers need surgeries all the time, and prior use can cause future troubles. But it would not be a surprise if he wound up starting this year in good shape.
Prediction time