The Braves have been knocked down…will the Giants let them get back up again?
On Thursday afternoon, the Atlanta Braves reliever Scott Blewett took the mound in the 9th inning to finalize a 10-4 victory over the Diamondbacks and…blew it.
The surname is a terrible one for a reliever — he’s a walking headline, low-hanging fruit for us wordsmiths. To be fair to Blewett though, he wasn’t the only one to blow it. Atlanta is a family of Blewetts blowing it. The meltdown was a tandem affair with closer Raisel Iglesias in which both pitchers surrendered a total of 8 runs on 7 hits over the last two innings, sticking the Braves’ at the business-end of a three-game sweep. Imagine being in that Braves dugout watching Arizona’s rally bloom. Imagine sitting in the cabin of the subsequent flight out west. A five hour travel time — and no one said a word.
Take solace in the fact that there’s always someone out there with worse problems than your own.
Atlanta is now 27-34 seven-games below .500 and a dozen games out of first place in the NL East. The San Francisco Giants have been scuffling, but they just rescued a series split against their most direct division competitor, are still a handful of games above .500 and (somehow) only a handful of games out of first. TBD how long that proximity lasts, but at least there’s some measurable volume of hope. Early June, with the way the Mets and Phillies have been playing — the Braves don’t even have that. Their playoff odds after Thursday’s loss sit at 10% (Baseball Ref), the sixth lowest in the National League.
But, yeah, I agree: play-off odds, shmay-off odds. It’s only the first week of June and though the Braves are a long way from their championship in 2021 and the back-to-back 100 win seasons in ‘22 and ‘23, their line-up still boasts some familiar punches. Freddie Freeman, Dansby Swanson, Jorge Soler, pearl-adorned Joc, Ehire Adrianza — are not those names. They’re all gone, but Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies remain with Matt Olson and Sean Murphy added on too. In the not so distant past, these bats have powered 100 win offenses. Maybe their results don’t reflect this now, but the potential for pop is still there.
Atlanta’s slow start could probably be best over-generalized as a sustained hangover from the 2024 season, the first year since 2017 that they surrendered the NL East title. It doesn’t take much scratching-and-sniffing to discern the source of that stink. 20-game winner Spencer Strider damaged his UCL in his second start of 2024 and had season-ending surgery. Reigning MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. tore his ACL a month and a half later, and the lineup has been headless without him in the year since.
Despite the 2024 calendar torn from the wall and buried in the trash, or most likely burned, the 2024 problems have kept cropping up in 2025. Free agent signing Jurickson Profar is currently serving an 80-game PED suspension. Chris Sale took the month of April to find his Cy Young form. Injuries and uncharacteristic starts from stalwart bats have extended the nightmare.
But on May 23rd, the Braves soul returned. Acuña is back, and he’s still good at baseball apparently. In his first at-bat, he launched a homer off Padres starter Nick Pivetta 467 feet.
In 11 games, he’s hitting .333 with a 1.056 OPS. Get ready to sweat through 12-plus plate appearances of his this weekend. Strider will probably still be good at baseball again but hasn’t quite found his stride yet. He’s already dealt with a hamstring strain and hasn’t been very effective on the mound in four starts, which means he’ll probably do just fine against the Giants on Sunday. The perfect opponent to steady his shaky legs.
But that Spencer isn’t the Spencer to stress about. Projected Friday starter Spencer Schwellenbach is the ascendent Spencer on the Braves. The 25 year old right-hander has K’ed 11 hitters in back-to-back starts (vs. Padres, Red Sox), and is riding the wave of a scoreless outing (6.1 IP, 5 H) in his most recent appearance. He throws a bevy of periphery off a zippy 4-seam fastball, but his finishing pitch is a splitter. The 4-seam rides high and the split falls away. It has a RV/100 of 2.5, generating a lot of chase, a lot of whiff, and a lot of ground balls. Opponents are hitting .143 off of it. They’re slugging .163. Friday might be ugly.
But we also have Dom Smith…so only beautiful things happen when the Giants hit now.
Despite the robust bat of Smith bolstering the San Francisco lineup, this series will probably play like the recent rest. Low offense, tough pitching, tight contests. The arms keep the Giants in games…and their bats keep their opponents in games too. The Braves pitching staff is pretty average. They’re middle of the pack in a lot of categories, but the middle of the pack is more than enough when it comes to facing this offense. Like I said before, Atlanta’s batting order is running mostly off historical reputation (with notable production from 24 year old Drake Baldwin, who slaps righties and is making a play for more starts behind the plate). The team’s numbers fall somewhere in the gut of the league, even with Acuña back in the box.
There also appears to be some prevailing winds filling the Giants sails for this upcoming weekend. Not only do they have a bit more momentum, but seemingly more favorable splits. The Braves are 10 – 20 in away games (which they’ll be), and 14 – 23 against teams better than .500 (which the Giants are). In one-run games, both teams have played 25, but Atlanta is 9 – 16 while San Francisco is 13 – 12. And of course, the Braves’ most recent one-run game was more of spiritual gutting than a loss.
Let’s hope the Giants kick ‘em while they’re down.
Series Overview
Atlanta Braves
27 – 34, L4, Last 10: 2 – 8
Away: 10 – 20, RS – RA: 250 – 244
San Francisco Giants
35 – 28, W2, Last 10: 4 – 6
Home: 19 – 11, RS – RA: 259 – 217
Schedule & Projected Starters
Friday, June 6th, 7:15 PM PT
RHP Hayden Birdsong – 2.45 ERA (3 GS, 14.2 IP)
v. RHP Spencer Schwellenbach – 3.13 (12 GS, 74.2 IP)
Saturday, June 7th, 1:05 PM PT
RHP Logan Webb – 2.55 ERA (13 GS, 81.1 IP)
v. RHP Bryce Elder – 4.56 ERA (9 GS, 49.1 IP)
Sunday, June 8th, 1:05 PM PT
RHP Landen Roupp – 3.18 ERA (12 GS, 62.1 IP)
v. RHP Spencer Strider – 5.68 (4 GS, 19.0 IP)