Both teams are trying to back into the third Wild Card spot with uninspiring play — but is there room on the playoff lifeboat for two mediocrities?
About two and a half weeks ago, I opened a series preview by mentioning, “I wake up most mornings wondering if the San Francisco Giants are actually good.” I know longer wake up wondering about their quality. Are the Giants good? Oh heavens no. Ah, but are the Giants bad? Also no.
This is the dilemma faced by the Chicago Cubs. Not rancid enough to be bad, not sweet enough to be good. They have Shota Imanaga dazzling on the mound, but even that crafty veteran import can’t push the staff beyond its 3.85 team ERA (12th in MLB) and 6.4 fWAR in value (14th in MLB). That’s definitely better than the Giants’ performance on the mound (4.38 ERA – 24th; 4.7 fWAR – 2st). On offense, they’ve scored fewer runs (298) than the Giants (315), and by the mighty wRC+ they’re 6% worse than the league average (21st in MLB). The Giants are 5% better (12th) in the same number of games played (72).
The Giants are 6-10 in their last 16 games after winning 10 of the previous 12. That hasn’t felt very good, but it’s still a record of 16-12 over their previous 28. The Cubs, meanwhile, have gone just 9-19, and that comes after beginning the season 25-19. It looked like Chicago would be able to achieve a medium-intensity grip on a Wild Card spot for the most of the season, but they’ve managed to drift back to the comically large pack of at .500 or sub-.500 teams vying for the two remaining spots after Atlanta.
We’ll get to see one of the other Boras Four clients up close and personal. Cody Bellinger signed within the first week of Spring Training, at the very least, and so he hasn’t had to deal with “It’s still Spring Training for him” as Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery will all season. His challenge for this year and beyond is constantly answering the question “Will he be as bad as he was in 2021-2022 (.193/.256/.355) because that’s the player he really is?”
He was the one player I strongly advocated for during the offseason because I thought Gold Glove outfielder, who’d be in his age-28 season, was the exact kind of gamble the Giants should take to add some dynamism to the roster. He has a .759 OPS in 58 games so far, well off the .881 OPS he posted last year to get a 3-year deal/extension with the Cubs. In this 9-19 stretch, he has been part of Chicago’s problem, hitting just .263/.292/.386 (.678 OPS). According to Statcast, his batted ball data has looked a little worse than last season, when all the indicators suggested a player to avoid signing to a long-term deal. And somehow, his sterling defense has rusted.
But I mention him specifically because he’s a player who gives us more insight into our position as fans. If he were on the Giants, would Giants fans be holding out hope or writing him off? I mentioned this last week when it came to the Giants’ negative run differential: if another team featured the same sizable gap would you make the same excuses? Bellinger posted a 4.3 fWAR last season and looks to be on pace for 2-2.5 this year with maybe a .760 OPS. That’s still 12% better than the league average (112 wRC+). Last year it was 134. So, “not worth the contract” might be a valid criticism, but the Giants have players like this:
Jorge Soler — 103 wRC+ currently, 126 last season
Matt Chapman — 105 wRC+ currently, 110 last season
Mike Yastrzemski — 100 wRC+ currently, 112 last season
Thairo Estrada — 87 wRC+ currently, 101 last season
Wilmer Flores — 82 wRC+ currently, 136 last season
Of course, balancing these underperformers is the likes of RAMOS! RAMOS! RAMOS! (176), Brett Wisely (130), Patrick Bailey (123), and even Michael Conforto (107 in 2024 vs. 100 in 2023), but the point is that we/the team believes powers their every decision. The Cubs believe that Cody Bellinger and their current roster gives them the best chance of backing into the total crapshoot/anything can happen postseason. The Giants believe the exact same thing. As we’ve seen, it comes across as driving a car while wearing a blindfold, accelerating and braking at random.
These two teams met in September when the Wild Card was very much on the line. At the time, I gushed,
When you look at the Cubs, you see another team thriving in the spot where the Giants had hoped to be. They have the good fortune of being a preferred destination by quality free agents and in the NL Central. They’re getting stellar contributions from young guys, old guys, pitchers and hitters. It’s a team effort.
They’re also solidly ahead of the Giants in the Wild Card race and have ascended the gaggle of mediocre franchises scratching and clawing for the third and final spot.
The Cubs were the #2 Wild Card with a record of 73-64. The Giants were well into their hilarious collapse, having reached 61-49 on August 3rd but fallen to 70-67 by the start of this series (September 4th). It’s going to be a midwestern summer for this series, with temps in the 90s and 45+% humidity. Let’s watch these two blindfolded teams take swings at each other in the muggy darkness of mediocrity.
Series details
Who: San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs
Where: Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois
When: Monday (5:05pm PT), Tuesday (5:05pm PT), Wednesday (11:20am PT)
National broadcasts: None.
Projected starters
Monday: Jordan Hicks vs. Javier Assad
Tuesday: Logan Webb vs. Justin Steele
Wednesday: Bullpen game vs. Kyle Hendricks
Where they stand
Cubs, 34-38 (5th in NL Central), 298 RS / 315 RA | Last 10 games: 6-4
Giants, 35-37 (4th in NL West), 315 RS / 338 RA | Last 10 games: 3-7
Cubs to watch
Starting pitchers (Javier Assad, Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks): If the Giants’ offensive struggles (yes, they scored 13 runs in the series finale against the Angels, but let’s not pretend as though they haven’t had several frustrating moments of late where they stranded runners or, outside of Heliot Ramos, were ice cold) continue through this series, it will probably be the result of this trio of kitchen-sinkers the Cubs will throw at them.
The 26-year old Assad is a right-hander who averages about 92 with his sinker, but has a six-pitch mix to aid it. Lefty Justin Steele, who was in competition with Logan Webb and Blake Snell for last year’s NL Cy Young, has followed up that 5-WAR season with a much more modest 0.7 fWAR through 9 starts this season which includes a 3.75 FIP (3.02 last year). Hendricks? Well, we know the deal. Soft-tossing that will frustrate and put you to sleep. He’s the worst starter on the staff by a longshot (-0.6 fWAR, 8.20 ERA in 12 games/7 starts), but he’s always had the Giants number: 2.36 ERA, 6-2 record in 76.1 IP (12 GS).
Craig Counsell: The Giants and Cubs have a lot in common. Both teams owned by very loud and proud billionaires with strong reactionary politics that they fund in cities that have traditionally been run by people claiming the exact opposite ideology on the political spectrum. Famous in their division but basically laughingstocks today. Unable to achieve escape velocity from the black hole of .500. A roster smartly cobbled together by a crafty process in lieu of genuine, bona fide, superstar prospect development. And both teams hired a notable manager from another team in their division this past offseason.
I have no strong opinion about Counsell as a manager. When I think of him, I think of his batting stance.
He managed the Brewers from 2015-2023, and was 22-31 against the Giants in that span, so I don’t see him as a thorn in the team’s side, either. But in a matchup of two equally bumbling teams — even FanGraphs’ game odds has it 50/50 today
— I have to wonder if the manager’s moves might be that 2% difference that decides the series. We’ve seen Giants managers out-manage other teams before (Don Mattingly, of course, but also Bob Geren and Mike Matheny) and a manager only looks as good as his talent, but still, let’s see how Counsell moves against Bob Melvin.
Mike & Michael (Tauchman & Busch): Mike Tauchmann robbing Albert Pujols wound up being the difference in the Giants losing the Wild Card round at home versus in Dodger Stadium and we must always be grateful even if it happened in a fluke season because the Dodgers had to use everything they had to stop the Giants and it wound up costing them a shot at the World Series. The Giants might never again be as good as the Dodgers, but we’ll always have that. Meanwhile, Tauchman didn’t let that be the final chapter of his career. The Giants cut him that season and he had to go play in Korea in 2022. The Cubs brought him back last year and he had a .733 OPS in 401 plate appearances. He grew up a Cubs fan in Pallatine, Illinois and so they nicknamed him The Palatine Pounder. This year, he’s hitting .256/.354/.379 and striking out just 20.5% of the time.
Tauchman is the 2nd-most valuable position player (1.2 fWAR) after first baseman Michael Busch, whom the Cubs acquired from the Dodgers back in January. He was the first round pick (#31 overall) of the Dodgers in the 2019 draft. That draft had Adley Rutschman #1, Bobby Witt Jr. #2, Andrew Vaughn #3, CJ Abrams #6, Nick Lodolo #7, Josh Jung #8, Shea Langeliers #9, and Corbin Carroll at #16. The Giants took Hunter Bishop at #10 and in the offseason got Will Wilson from the Angels (#15). Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
Anyway, the 26-year old Busch has 8 home runs to go with a .254/.348/.437 line in 230 plate appearances plus a 12.2% walk rate — however, he’s striking out 33.5% of the time. Which is bad. We’ve all been on alert with Heliot Ramos and his strikeout rate — well, that’s come down to 28.5% as I type this, which is about where most of us thought it could be to make him a legitimate lineup fixture. The Cubs have no such concerns about the swing and miss, I guess, so here’s hoping the Giants’ mid-tier strikeout staff can take advantage.
Giants to watch
Mike Yastrzemski: A 33-year old outfielder slugging under .400 is cause for concern. Wrigley Field presents a nice opportunity for him to show some life, as his 47.2% flyball percentage will almost certainly be aided by the conditions.
Jorge Soler & Matt Chapman: I mentioned them earlier in relation to Cody Bellinger, but let’s actually keep an eye out to see how they do in this series because they both could be critical factors. Soler signed with the Cubs as an amateur free agent back in 2012. In 124 Wrigley Field games (438 PA) he has 15 home runs and a triple slash of .262/.340/.435.
Chapman is 0-for-9 in three Wrigley games, and the starting pitching matchups could present some troubles for him. He’s been great against the four-seam fastball and changeup this year (both +3 Run Value) along with the curveball (+2), but against everything else, average or worse. Particular the slider (-3) and sinker (-1), the Cubs could have his number, unless they sequence him wrong or he’s able to layoff the tough pitches. And, of course, every groundball he can scoop up and convert into an out reduces the risk of a flyball turning into a home run.
Jordan Hicks: The Cubs have seen him as a reliever before, but not as a starter. They’ve fared just fine in the matchup previously (3.60 ERA in 20 IP), but what about this version of him? Whose book (the Cubs on Hicks or Hicks’ book on the Cubs) matters most? And after seeing Kyle Harrison hit the IL will Jordan Hicks be pushed beyond 4-5 innings? Those are two pitchers we knew heading into the season would have an issue later in the season as their workloads took their arms beyond any place they’d been previously.