San Diego has lost 7 of 10. Meanwhile, Fernando Tatis Jr. is 1 of the 3 best players in baseball.
San Diego Padres? More like the San Diego Injuries! The Padres have 11 players on their IL right now, and some of them are players expected to help them contend here in 2025. Thankfully, that’s not a problem for the San Francisco Giants who can face a tough team that won’t have help from Jackson Merrill, Jake Cronenworth, and Yu Darvish. Will those deficiencies be enough for the Giants to sweep a 2-game series in San Diego?
The Giants have lost the last three season series against the Padres and are 9-14 in San Diego over that same span. Remarkably, last year’s matchup skews the result a bit. The Giants were 4-2 against Bob Melvin’s former team down south.
Both teams are in a vaguely similar situation in that the preseason expectation was that 2025 would be a regrouping of sorts — or, at the very least, the forecast for both teams was cloudy and uncertain. Some pundits thought the Padres would be a sub-.500 team with their payroll rollbacks, ignoring that they still had Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill, and solid pitching. The Giants, well, you know — they’ve been disappointing since 2022, so, everybody had low expectations for them. Instead, both teams have stormed out of the gate and fought for the top of the NL West throughout April.
And yet the pundits had a point.
Both teams sport below average lineups. Admittedly, the Giants have been top 10 where it counts — runs scored (135 – 10th in MLB) — but, rate-wise, San Diego and San Francisco are 20th and 22nd in MLB, respectively. The Giants’ 96 wRC+ is 4% worse than league average, the Padres’ 103 is 3% better than average — but both teams are about the same, wins above replacement-wise (Padres: 2.8 fWAR, Giants: 2.6).
The reasons? The Padres are terrible baserunners (-0.8 baserunning runs, per FanGraphs) and defenders (-8.8 Defensive Runs Above Average). They’re also not hitting for much power (.131 ISO – 23rd in MLB) and that’s with about average luck on balls in play (.295 BAbip – 12th). The Giants, meanwhile, are much better baserunners (+2.1 baserunning runs – 7th), slightly better defenders (-6.9 Defensive Runs Above Average), and hit for a bit more power (.148 ISO – 15th) with less luck on balls in play (.279 BAbip – 22nd).
They’re, effectively, average at best lineups buoyed by great pitching. San Diego’s team fWAR just 28 games into the season is +4.5, tied with the Astros for 2nd in MLB, right in between the Rangers (+4.3) and the Mets (+5.8). The Giants are 8th with +3.7.
There is a key difference between the two figures, though. The Padres, who have played 13 of their first 19 games at the pitcher-friendly Petco Park, have a team xFIP of 3.94 — based on the quality of contact, their team ERA (currently 2.82) should be higher. This shows up in their home-road split. Their home ERA is 1.81 and on the road it’s 4.81. Bummer for the Giants, they’re playing the Padres on their home turf where they’ve gotten amazing results. The Giants’ home-road ERA split is not nearly as stark: 3.08 at home, 3.82 on the road.
A month into the 2025 season and the Giants finally get to play against an NL West rival.
Series overview
Who: San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres
Where: Petco Park | San Diego, California
When: Tuesday at 6:40pm PT, Wednesday at 1:10pm PT
National broadcasts: None
Projected starters
Tuesday: Logan Webb (RHP, 3-1, 1.98 ERA) vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP, 4-1, 1.20 ERA)
Wednesday: Landen Roupp (RHP, 2-1, 4.56 ERA) vs. Michael King (RHP, 3-1, 2.18 ERA)
Where they stand
Giants, 19-10 (2nd in NL West), 135 RS / 107 RA | Last 10: 5-5
Padres, 17-11 (3rd in NL West), 106 RS / 83 RA | Last 10: 3-7
Padres to watch
Luis Arraez: Before landing on the concussion IL a little over a week ago, the low-power, high-contact hitter was 10-for-his-last-30, including a pair of homers and double. Just 1 strikeout against 3 walks, too. Concussions are extremely serious in all situations, so we’ll need to see if he looks like he’s fully healthy, of course, while also holding our breaths, because he’s a career .389 hitters against the Giants (78 PA).
Nick Pivetta: He was a late signing for the Padres, who wound up having to surrender a draft pick to get this qualifying offer guy. I’m not sure he made the best decision turning down ~$21 million for San Diego’s 4-year, $55 million deal and I’m not sure that the Padres made the best decision signing a guy who had a 4.33 ERA / 4.20 FUP the prior 4 seasons. The strikeout stuff is key, though, and pitching at Petco will certainly eat into that career 1.5 HR/9 — indeed, he’s allowed just 1 HR in his first 30 IP of 2025. Still, he’s had just one bad start in the early season (3 ER in 3 IP at Wrigley Field). It’s not a 1:1, but this matchup is not unlike what the Giants saw from Tyler Mahle the other day. A low run-scoring situation. He’s allowed just four walks in his last 19 innings.
Connor Joe: After spending time with the Rockies, he’s landed on the Padres and it feels a little personal. Joe has a career line of .305/.376/.467 against the Giants in 29 career games (117 PA). He’s 3-for-9 against Logan Webb. Chances are that he’ll come off the bench rather than start… but you never know.
Giants to watch
Willy Adames: I declare that I have made peace with Adames being a total flop for the next couple of months. April, May, most of June — let’s just assume he’s not on the team. He is a black hole of value on the field, but it seems like he’s a good guy in the clubhouse. Unfortunately, adjusting to a new team while taking on all the pressure of having landed the most valuable contract in the history of the Giants has gotten to him. I say all this because maybe his history in Petco Park can overcome it: .372/.471/.512 (51 PA — 11 games), but if it doesn’t, there you have it — he’s still nervous and pressing.
Jung Hoo Lee: That unfortunate injury which limited his 2024 debut really feels like a boon for him and the Giants this season. He’s like like a secret weapon — or, as though teams simply have no immune response to his skill set. He is an outside context problem — for now — and I think Jung Hoo Lee’s game is the perfect wrench to throw in the Padres’ pitching plans.
Mike Yastrzemski: The Padres have been tough on left-handed hitters so far this season (.197/.268/.307), but Yaz has 3 career homers at Petco and has an .888 OPS to start the season. Admittedly, he’s hit much better at Oracle than on the road (.308/.426/.590), but with two right-handed starters going up and the Giants having very limited left-handed bats in their lineup (or bench!), he might have the chance to swing one of these games.