On paper, the Giants look like the better team. So why does this four-game series feel like a trap?
The Colorado Rockies are 1-14 on the road! They will be playing their next 4 games on the road against the San Francisco Giants, who’ve lost 3 of their last 5. Is that enough of an analysis to suggest that the Giants will sweep or win the series? Of course not. It’s baseball.
Their lone road win came in the second game of the season when they played the Rays at Steinbrenner Field. One could reasonably say that “the pitchers are ahead of the hitters” that soon after Spring Training, and a 3-2 win by the Colorado Rockies — on the road would certainly buttress the argument, but no… it’s all too strange to me. There’s something about the Rockies that always keeps me on edge. It’s because of the division rivalry — that has to be it. If this was an NL Central team, I’d dismiss them out of hand.
The Rockies aren’t going to split or win the series, are they? That’s… they can’t be due. It doesn’t work like that, does it? The Giants have solid enough starting pitching, a solid bullpen, a solid lineup, an approaching solid defense. The Rockies have… none of that. Quite literally. Their team ERA is 5.30, 28th in MLB (only Miami’s 5.89 is worse in the NL). Their -9.2 Defensive Runs Above Average is 25th (only Washington’s -9.4 is worse in the NL). Their 96 runs scored are the fewest in the sport. The Royals are ahead of them by 1 run. Their team batting line of .211/.282/.350 is worth a 63 wRC+ — 37% worse than the league average. This should be a slam dunk series for the Giants, right?
RIGHT????
Nah. Even though the Rockies are 5-27 at Oracle Park since the start of 2021 — including 0-7 last season and 1-5 in 2023 — it seems unlikely that Colorado could carry on like this. The inertia of baseball usually demands otherwise. Dinger haunts my dreams. The Ryan Spilborghs walk-off grand slam was 14 years ago, but I still remember it. Besides, it’s not as though they’re completely without merit here in 2025. 24-year old Jordan Beck, 25-year old Hunter Goodman, old timer Kyle Freeland (2.91 FIP)… these guys can ball some. The Giants are 2nd in bullpen ERA with 2.41 — the Rockies are 14th at 3.75.
Then again, the Rockies got off to the worst 29-game start (4-25) since the 1893 Louisville Colonels, the 1894 Senators, the 1988 Orioles, and the 2003 Tigers before their 2-1 win over Atlanta in Colorado. That win snapped an 8-game losing streak, which started after a 3-1 win that had snapped an 8-game losing streak. If the pattern holds, maybe this series becomes the first half of another 8-game losing streak. But if you’ve been watching baseball for very long, you can’t assume that’s true. We can’t predict baseball. And, again… it’s the Rockies and it’s the Rockies in Oracle Park. Still…
The Giants are licking their wounds after getting pasted by the Padres in San Diego. There weren’t a lot of positives to take away from that one, but regrouping at Oracle Park against an intentionally awful team is a good followup. And yet…
The Giants have been trending down the past couple of weeks where the lineup is concerned: Since April 16th (14 games), their 85 wRC+ on a line of .227/.314/.327 is 24th in MLB. Combined with defense (-3.2 Def) and baserunning (-1.4 BsR), their lineup’s value of +0.3 fWAR is 26th in MLB. So yeah… even the Rockies pitching might have a chance…
Pitching-wise, they Giants have had the third-most valuable staff in the game (+2.2 fWAR) behind only the Mets and the Rangers. On that basis alone, you would expect that Justin Verlander, Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks, and Logan Webb will stifle the Rockies. But if it were that easy, then they wouldn’t play the games.
Series overview
Who: San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Where: Oracle Park | San Francisco, California
When: Thursday at 6:45pm PT, Friday at 7:15pm PT, Saturday & Sunday at 1:05pm PT
National broadcasts: MLB Network (Friday)
Projected starters
Thursday: Kyle Freeland (LHP, 0-4, 5.93 ERA) vs. Justin Verlander (RHP, 0-2, 4.99 ERA)
Friday: Antonio Senzatela (RHP, 1-4, 5.22 ERA) vs. Robbie Ray (LHP, 3-0, 3.73 ERA)
Saturday: Ryan Feltner (RHP, 0-2, 4.75 ERA) vs. Jordan Hicks (RHP, 1-3, 6.12 ERA)
Sunday: German Marquez (RHP, 0-5, 9.82 ERA) vs. Logan Webb (RHP, 3-2, 2.83 ERA)
Where they stand
Rockies, 5-25 (5th in NL West), 96 RS / 173 RA | Last 10: 2-8
Giants, 19-12 (3rd in NL West), 142 RS / 119 RA | Last 10: 5-5
Rockies to watch
Kyle Freeland: So, let’s examine the soft-tossing lefty’s career, all with the Rockies. He is 60-77 in 211 games (206 starts) and 1,128 IP, sporting a 4.52 ERA (4.58 FIP). 24 of those starts (129 IP) have come against the Giants and he’s 8-7 with a 4.19 ERA. However, in Oracle Park, he’s 2-4 with a 3.42 ERA (9 starts, 50 IP). Those 8 overall wins, however, are his most against any opponent. The 2025 Giants have a .213 batting average against left-handed pitchers (.638 OPS) compared to a .233 average against righties (.703 OPS).
Antonio Senzatela: Another starter who has done some of the best work in his career against the Giants — but, he hasn’t faced them since 2022. It has been a rough go for him as he’s made his way back from surgery pitching just 20 innings between 2023 & 2024. Here in 2025, he’s off to an awful start, with a 5.22 ERA in 29.1 IP (6 starts). 50 hits allowed, including 7 home runs. And yet! That’s the result of one of the starkest and strangest home/road splits you’re likely to see (thanks, small sample size of the early season!):
HOME: 15.1 IP 7.63 ERA 1.57 WHIP
AWAY: 14 IP 2.57 ERA 2.21 WHIP
Jordan Beck & Hunter Goodman: These are the two best hitters in the Rockies’ lineup over the past two weeks and we can be a little suspicious because inthe past two weeks the Rockies have played 9 of their 13 games at Coors Field. Beck has slashed .333/.405/.861 with a 12% walk rate against a 36% strikeout rate (42 PA). Meanwhile, Goodmand has slashed .326/.426/.500 with a 13% walk rate and 22% strikeout rate (54 PA).
Giants to watch
Wilmer Flores: He’s 0-for-his-last-15 and that’s probably due for a snap. His last 0-for spell came in the final game of the Phillies series through the Angels series (0-for-13) and was followed by a wonderful performance in the 4-game series against the Brewers (8-for-11).
Justin Verlander: His last two appearances have been of the hard luck variety that’s seen him robbed of two wins, basically. Ryan Walker’s blown save against the Angels, sure, but the Rangers stifled the Giants’ lineup so much that Verlander’s 6 innings with 1 earned run (2 allowed) also went to waste. There might be enough unfamiliarity here (Verlander last faced the Rockies in 2023 — 6 ER in 5 IP) that the outcome could go either way. A gem or a stinker for the Giants’ starter.
Matt Chapman: We haven’t been talking about Chapman too much this season because he’s at least been getting on base and playing Gold Glove defense at third base, but over the past two weeks, his .191/.345/.404 slash line has drifted into concerning. Teams are, effectively, pitching around him and daring somebody else to do damage. While LaMonte Wade Jr. is starting to hit the ball harder more consistently (and his bat speed average is increasing as a result), it’s still the case that it’s getting easier to pitch the Giants. I don’t know if that means Chapman has to expand his zone or make more authoritative contact, but last season, he was 19-for-44 against the Rockies (.432/.528/.659).