Vaunted pitching, haunted hitting.
The Minnesota Twins have been a midwest-sized disappointment to start the 2025 season. Their 18-20 record has them 4th place in the AL Central when they were expected to be near the top of the division. They are being roasted for an inactive offseason. They are 20th in offense (95 wRC+) despite having Carlos Correa (who’s supposed to be great!), Byron Buxton, Ryan Jeffers, and Royce Lewis. And, again, they play in the AL Central.
After a triumphant series against the Cubs, the San Francisco Giants arrive at Target Field with a lot of confidence — at least, I would hope they do. That was a gut check of a series where they overcame a shaky Ryan Walker and a Cubs lineup that threatened a big inning nearly every time. The bird’s eye view might see a hot team taking on a flopping team, but that’s simply not the case, and you don’t even need the “well, you know, you can’t predict baseball” qualifier attached to it.
The Twins are 11-5 in their last 16 games and their previously dull lineup has come to life with a .761 OPS (119 wRC+ — 8th in MLB). Indeed, their lineup has been exactly as good as the Cubs (77 runs scored compared to Chicago’s 78; same wRC+) — though, it’s worth pointing out that the last couple of games saw the Cubs’ lineup hit a wall called Giants Pitching. Still, it’s evidence of a turnaround of late, the exact sort of thing that happens with teams all the time: a slow start followed by the talent getting into a rhythm and sustaining good results over a longer stretch. But don’t take my word for it:
Byron Buxton, last 65 PA: .305/.354/.610 — 5 HR, 15 RBI 3 SB
Ryan Jeffers, last 52 PA: .313/.365/.521 — 2 HR, 10 RBI
Ty France, last 67 PA: .333/.388/.467 — 1 HR, 5 2B, 11 RBI
Trevor Larnach, last 69 PA: .258/.324/.468 — 4 HR, 12 RBI
Brooks Lee, last 59 PA: .304/.339/.429 — 1 HR, 4 2B
The Twins’ pitching has been just as formidable as the Giants’, and all season long, too. By straight up Wins Above Replacement, their team fWAR of 5.6 is 3rd in MLB behind the Mets and Phillies, but 1st in the American League. Their team ERA of 3.42 is just slightly better than the Giants’ 3.45 (team fWAR: +4.7). Over this most recent 16-game stretch, they have a 2.58 team ERA and have been the most valuable pitching staff in baseball. They’re doing it by striking “everybody” out (sport-leading 10.0 K/9) and walking very few (2.5 BB/9). They’re also not allowing many home runs.
The Giants don’t pale in comparison, however. They’re 4th in value over this same stretch and they’re walking hitters at the same relatively low rate (2.75 BB/9). The Giants have also allowed the second-fewest home runs in the game (0.54 HR/9). So, while the Twins’ lineup has been soaring of late, we’ve already seen Giants pitching put the brakes on such entities.
Can the Giants hit their way to a series win in Minnesota is the question. Our favorite squadron has been perfectly fine on the road. The Twins, meanwhile, have been great at home, and they already have dominant pitching to throw at what has devolved into a barely league average body for the Giants. Do the Giants have more road magic in them or have they run into an immovable object at the end of this road trip?
Series overview
Who: San Francisco Giants at Minnesota Twins
Where: Target Field | Minneapolis, Minnesota
When: Friday at 5:10pm PT, Saturday at 4:15pm PT, Sunday at 11:10am PT
National broadcasts: Apple TV+ (Friday), FOX (Saturday)
Projected starters
Friday: Jordan Hicks (RHP 1-3, 6.03 ERA) vs. Chris Paddack (RHP 0-3, 5.57 ERA)
Saturday: Logan Webb (RHP 4-2, 2.61 ERA) vs. Joe Ryan (RHP 2-2, 2.93 ERA)
Sunday: Landen Roupp (RHP 2-3, 4.89 ERA) vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP 3-2, 2.18 ERA)
Where they stand
Giants, 24-14 (3rd in NL West), 183 RS / 144 RA | Last 10: 6-4
Twins, 18-20 (4th in AL Central), 152 RS / 137 RA | Last 10: 6-4
Twins to watch
Carlos Correa: Giants fans should be saying “bullet dodged” every time Correa’s name comes up. This would be year 3 of that 13-year, $350 million deal the Giants offered him, and while year 2 of it looked pretty okay (4.3 fWAR), it’s absolutely the case that between year 1 (1.8 fWAR) and the start of this season (.221/.262/.324), the BUST vibes would be intense right now. What Correa has maintained throughout all the shaky hitting is good defense. According to FanGraphs, he’s already at +5.4 Defensive Runs Above Average just 37 games into his 2025. He’s +10.9 for 2023 & 2024 combined, so for the moment, he’s trending in the direction of his elite defensive years of 2019 & 2021 (+10.9 Def & +16.2 Def, respectively). According to Statcast, he already has 6 Outs Above Average at shortstop. He had 6 total 2023 & 2024 combined. Here’s a fun example from just the other day:
This player and this team will always be connected. And Correa has had a nice career line against the Giants. In 15 games (65 PA), .322/.385/.424, so there’s a chance he could get his season back on track at the plate against a team he might still have some enmity towards and who are playing on his home turf where he and his teammates play very well. But, if his bat struggles, he’s almost certain to terrorize Bob Melvin’s players with superlative defense.
Chris Paddack: He is Minnesota’s worst starter by far (5.57 ERA / 5.52 FIP in 32.1 IP) which makes his start the most important of the series. While it’s true that anything can happen, Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez have been so good that it seems like “blowing out the bad pitcher and hope to get lucky against one of the other two” is the most successful strategy from a probability standpoint. He features a very basic four-seam, changeup, curveball, and slider arsenal, and there’s nothing all that impressive about his pitches from a Statcast perspective. What works is the pitch mix. He’s basically a fastball-changeup guy who keeps hitters even more off balance with a sprinkling of curveballs and changeups.
Regrettably, I must report that the Giants are bad against the four-seamer: a combined -14 Run Value against the pitch from their 10 primary hitters. -3 Run Value against the changeup. They are decent against sliders and curveballs, so, it’s plausible that Paddack’s stuff on those other two pitches don’t keep some of the Giants hitters off that much balance that he’ll try to sneak these secondary pitches by them and get blasted.
Byron Buxton: Dude is just good — when healthy. And right now, he’s healthy.
Giants to watch
LaMonte Wade Jr.: Sure, I wrote about him the other day and concluded that he’s fast approaching the make-or-break moment of his season, but I’m putting him here because this is a player going up against a former team — indeed, the team that drafted him and eventually dumped him. He’s played just 8 games against them since the Giants acquired him and has just a .573 OPS against them (33 PA), BUT! In 24 games at Target Field, he’s slashing .296/.449/.444 in 69 PA (5-for-21 as a Giant playing there). He was 3-for-9 with a double in that Cubs series; let’s see if this one wakes him up some more.
Logan Webb: At Oracle Park? Logan Webb is an ace (0.44 ERA in 20.1 IP). On the road? He’s closer to a 4th or 5th starter (4.18 ERA in 28 IP). This will be the first time he’s ever faced the Twins and, obviously, pitch in Target Field.
Matt Chapman: He ended April on a weak note (.198/.356/.377), but he’s getting hot here in May: .308/.379/.577 with a pair of homers and a double. In 17 games at Target Field (72 PA), he’s slashing .281/.347/.500 with 4 home runs. Good timing?