Do the Giants have a good problem still or is it time to make a switch
The San Francisco Giants are having significant issues with their lineup which has caused contributed to losing 9 of their last 15, tumbling in the standings, and dimming a 19-10 start. If you’ve been following the team since at least 2009, then you know that this is a common problem for the franchise and that the solution has been to simply field one of the best pitching staffs in the sport. Has the team been doing that during this 6-9 stretch?
Up until about two weeks ago, the answer was yes. Through Star Wars Day (May 4th), they sported a 3.50 team ERA (3rd in NL, 7th in MLB) and 3.36 team FIP (2nd in NL & MLB). By wins above replacement, their 4.7 fWAR was 6th in MLB. And before you go saying, “Well, yeah, thanks to the bullpen,” the bullpen wasn’t the whole story. The rotation’s +3.4 fWAR was tied with the Royals, Mariners, and Reds behind the Mets & Phillies (4.6) and Rangers (3.7). Here’s how that valuation broke down:
Logan Webb, +1.8 fWAR
Jordan Hicks, +0.6
Justin Verlander, +0.4
Landen Roupp, +0.3
Robbie Ray, +0.2
Now, that adds up to 3.3, so don’t ask me where FanGraphs got this 3.4. Let’s just go with it. That’s not how I would’ve imagined the list breaking out. I might’ve put Hicks at the bottom, though still in the positive. But there it is: it wasn’t long ago where Hicks was pitching above league average in value. That was at a point where he still looked shaky.
It was nearly three weeks ago that we took a look at Jordan Hicks’ performance and how figuring out how to throw a more effective fastball — monumental as that task is — would solve all his problems. That was after he’d made a start that saw a precipitous drop in fastball velocity, which had some people wondering if he was injured. His last two starts have featured 99-100 mph velocity, so, we’re in the clear there. What’s left is one small matter: is he better than the other options of Landen Roupp and… Hayden Birdsong?
Since May 5th in what’s an, admittedly, much smaller sample (literally, 1 or 2 starts), that rotation fWAR breakdown looks like this:
Robbie Ray, +0.5 fWAR (2 GS)
Logan Webb, +0.2 fWAR (1 GS)
Jordan Hicks, +0.1 fWAR (1 GS)
Landen Roupp, +0.0 fWAR (2 GS)
Justin Verlander, -0.2 fWAR (2 GS)
So, any anxiety about keeping Jordan Hicks in the rotation looks unwarranted. My initial premise of this piece was “Hicks vs. Roupp,” because, to me, Roupp is the obvious problem spot. The real issue here is the Looming Birdsong. Hayden Birdsong seems undeniable as a starter, but the problem is whose spot would he take? To me, the obvious answer is Roupp’s, with a Verlander injury or month of 5 ER starts being next obvious.
But then Wednesday happened, and there’s doubt in the air. Shayna Rubin wrote in the Chronicle:
Since he pitched six scoreless innings in Houston in his season debut, Hicks (1-5) has failed recorded a win, though he often has found ways to get deep enough into games to save the bullpen — Wednesday’s start the exception.
[…]
It’s an advantage for Melvin to have two young starters in Birdsong and, now, Kyle Harrison in the bullpen. Both can go at least four innings with the kind of stuff that made them top prospects and hot contenders for the fifth rotation spot when camp broke. Though they would need to get stretched out further, they are also options to move back into the rotation should the team decide a change is in order.
Whether Hicks’ time in the rotation is on a shorter leash is a conversation Melvin wouldn’t discuss after the loss.
Of course, Birdsong was brought in to bailout Hicks on Wednesday and fared no better, giving up 2 home runs (3 ER) in 3 IP while walking 2 and striking out 3. There is a loud, ball-knowing contingent who want Birdsong in there regardless and Hicks relegated to the pen, seemingly content with two inexperienced starters eating innings versus one low-experience guy and a veteran. Beat writers usually have some sense of the clubhouse vibrations and it’s fair to say that there’s something in the air about Hicks and the rotation.
I’m still sticking with my Hicks over Birdsong stance, though. I know that Hicks isn’t a veteran starter, but it counts for something that he’s retired double the number of major league hitters than Birdsong & Roupp combined (398.1 IP to 185.2 IP) and I expect that to give him the edge at least a while longer — but maybe not much longer. He’ll make probably three more starts this month: at home on Monday against the Royals, then on the road against the Nationals followed by the Marlins. This seems like a good stretch for him to string together some starts… but if it doesn’t, well…
The Giants are still very much in Good Problem To Have territory. Kyle Harrison is up and looking good as a reliever. Birdsong has looked good as a reliever. The Giants might be pressing their luck by trying to flip 1 or 2 of their current starters into relievers over the course of the season, even if one of them started their MLB career as one. It all comes down to performance, though. Besides vibes, is there a statistical case for Roupp over Hicks?
Hicks (45.1 IP; 9 GS) | 10.5 H/9, 0.6 HR/9, 3.2 BB/9, 8.1 K/9 (-6 Run Value: sinker + sweeper)
Roupp (40 IP; 8 GS) | 10.4 H/9, 1.4 HR/9, 3.2 BB/9, 9.5 K/9 (-2 Run Value: sinker + curve)
Kinda?
But right now, Jordan Hicks has a higher groundball rate (57.4%) than Logan Webb’s (54.9%). His sinker-sweeper-splitter-four seam mix mirrors Webb’s sinker-slider-changeup-four seam arsenal. The results don’t match Webb’s, of course, but if the Giants think they have a shot at sequalizing Logan Webb in the same rotation with guy who throws 95+ consistently, they’re probably going to keep him there longer than some fans might hope and the outcomes might even warrant. Roupp lacks Hicks’s velocity and groundball skills (he’s more of a strikeout guy), while Birdsong approximates Hicks’s velocity yet is more of flyball guy than Roupp and even with the strikeout stuff he lacks the command of either.
The bird’s eye view of the matter is that this is a stalemate, but I think the on the ground analysis is that Hicks is scuffling but flashing a lot of why he should stick around. We know Birdsong will get his shot, and it very well could come at Hicks’s expense, but Roupp is the wobbly one six weeks into the season. That should come as no surprise.