This should be fun. Let’s hope this will be fun. It will be fun… right?
Admittedly, it’s the Peter Lambert matchup that most has me excited to watch Jung Hoo Lee play in Coors Field for the first time in his major league career. That’s the state of the San Francisco Giants: I’m anticipating 9 to 12 plate appearances over the next three days more than anything else.
Sure, the Giants have a very good shot at taking the series, even sweeping the series, which would put them at either 17-22 or 18-21 as they return to Oracle Park at the end of the week. On the other hand, this is Coors Field. This is that danged Dinger. This is a Giants team that might not be that much better than the Rockies at this present moment.
But Jung Hoo Lee getting those big open spaces to slap the ball into and team pitching and defense that should make that easier for a guy with his contact skills to do? The prospects of that turning out quite nicely are rather high.
Hold on, though. Are the Giants close to being as bad as the Rockies? The Giants have a team wRC+ of 96, which is #20 in MLB and just by the eye test is starting to make me question the validity of the measure. Oh, but there are the Rockies at #29 with… 74??? 26% worse than the league average? Wait — they’ve scored just 123 runs in 34 games. That’s 3.6 runs per game. They’re averaging 4 runs per game at home and allowing 6 per. The Rockies have a team fWAR of 1.0 on a 5.65 ERA (4.69 FIP). That’s 27th in MLB. Giants are 22nd (2.2 fWAR, 4.60 ERA/3.92 FIP), which is bad, but better. The Rockies’ early season defense has been bad, The Giants have been average.
So, on paper, the Giants are better than the Rockies and they have recent history on their side. The Giants are 11-6 in Coors the past two seasons. On the other hand, the Giants are 17-42 on the road going back to the 2nd half of last season (including losing 3 of 4 in September at Coors) and 40-61 if you go back to the start of last season. Any road stadium would seem to be a problem for the Giants in recent history.
This is why I’ll be pushing all my rooting chips in behind Jung Hoo Lee for the next three days. Sure, we don’t know how the altitude will effect him (or the other gassed Giants hitters for that matter), and he’s been absolutely dreadful on this road trip — his two hits yesterday raised his line to .194/.194/.194 in 31 plate appearances with 6 singles and 2 strikeouts — but if anyone’s bat is primed to take advantage it’s got to be his.
Series details
Who: San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies
Where: Coors Field, Denver, Colorado
When: Tuesday (5:40pm PT), Wednesday (5:40pm PT), Thursday (12:10pm PT)
National broadcasts: None.
Projected starters
Tuesday: Kyle Harrison vs. Dakota Hudson
Wednesday: Jordan Hicks vs. Peter Lambert
Thursday: Keaton Winn vs. Cal Quantrill
Where they stand
Rockies, 8-26 (5th in NL West), 123 RS / 200 RA, Last 10 games: 2-8
Giants, 15-21 (4th in NL West), 132 RS / 173 RA, Last 10 games: 3-7
Rockies to watch
Ryan McMahon: He really soaks up all the oxygen when it comes to the Rockies’ starting lineup. Not only does he lead it with a 136 wRC+ by way of the most home runs (5) and walks (20), he also strikes out a lot (43 in 148 PA — 29.1% walk rate) and has a batting average on balls in play of .418. Remember that “normal” or “average” is .300, so, one could make the case that he’s gotten very lucky on batted balls. On the other hand, the Rockies’ third baseman is crushing the ball, with a 93.8 mph average exit velocity that’s in the top 4% of the league and gives him a Hard Hit rate of 59.5% (top 1%). Only Juan Soto (60.9%) and Shohei Ohtani (61.5%) have hit the ball harder more consistently this season. So.
Elias Diaz: The 33-year old catcher was Colorado’s All-Star representative last year with a .763 OPS in the first half of 2023. He hit .255/.299/.375 the rest of the way (221 PA), but in a sign that it was more fatigue than aging curve decline, he’s off to a good start to this season, hitting .308/.356/.421 in 118 PA. In his last 55 PA, he’s at .306/.364/.469 with a home run, 5 doubles, and a 3-8 BB-K. His blocking doesn’t measure well on Statcast, but he’s 100th percentile in caught stealing, 96th percentile in pitch framing, and 83rd in pop time. He can control the running game.
Ezequiel Tovar: The Rockies gave him one of their patented “Hmm?” long-term extensions in the offseason which the 22-year old shortstop responded with a hot start to this season: .306/.363/.486 (.849 OPS) through his first 19 games. In his last 12 (54 PA), he’s at .157/.189/.196 (.385 OPS), just 8 for his last 51, with 18 strikeouts against just 2 walks. His Gold Glove caliber defense hasn’t exactly slumped to start the year, but he hasn’t been quite as spectacular. If that starts happening in this series, it could get annoying in a hurry.
Giants to watch
The starting pitchers: This is a combination of rookie starters (and, no, Hicks isn’t a rookie or even a rookie starter, but he’s new enough) and a tough park for pitchers that doesn’t immediately strike me as a huge problem. Yes, Kyle Harrison is homer prone, so he’s more than likely to give up a couple. On the other hand, he, like Jordan Hicks and Keaton Winn, have pitch arsenals that could very well work for the park and at their best they don’t walk hitters, which makes pitching in Coors even easier. On the other hand, both Hicks and Winn will be coming off getting beaten up pretty good in a hitter-friendly park… but that’s why they’re ones to watch. As the starters go, so go the Giants.
Blake Sabol: Wilmer Flores, Matt Chapman, and others have had great track records in Coors Field, but just in terms of a random guy who might take advantage, I’m suggesting we keep an eye on this Blake Sabol fellow. Last season, he went 2-for-7 with a double and 4 walks against just two strikeouts. We know Sabol has big power but strikes out a lot. The Rockies, though, have the lowest strikeout rate in the league, with a 6.68 K/9.
Nick Ahmed: In 51 career games at Coors Field (179 PA), Nick Ahmed has hit 8 home runs, 13 doubles, and 3 triples with a triple slash of .331/.397/.600. He was born to hit in Coors.