Why not? It’s the weekend.
Yesterday, Mark Feinsand fueled the belief that the San Francisco Giants remain the frontrunners to sign top of the market free agent starting pitcher Corbin Burnes. He wrote for MLB.com that “San Francisco has had an offer on the table” while “Burnes is seeking a deal worth at least $245 million, which would match the seven-year, $245 million deal Stephen Strasburg signed in December 2019.” But because he hasn’t signed with the Giants, we can assume that’s not their offer. What could it be? Let’s try to figure it out.
I took a stab at this a couple of weeks ago, but within the context of expressing how utterly out of my depth I would be in trying to negotiate a nine figure deal. I started by looking at Gerrit Cole’s contract (9 years, $324 million) and comparing Burnes’s performance to Cole’s, noting that Burnes has put up 89% of Cole’s value. 89% of that Cole deal is 8 years, $289 million. Now we know that’s not what’s being asked here.
Strasburg’s $245 million over 7 years works out to a $35 million AAV. Strasburg himself is sort of an irrelevant comparison, though. I think Zack Wheeler is much more relevant, considering that he and Burnes have been the two most valuable starting pitchers in baseball since 2021. No, seriously. #1 in fWAR: Wheeler with 22.7 and Burnes #2 with 19.2. #4 is, remarkably, Kevin Gausman (18.4). Which, lol Giants. L. O. L.
Anyway, Burnes was actually more valuable in the previous four seasons than Strasburg was to his extension (17.9 fWAR from 2016-2019) but it’s clear that Strasburg’s prominence as a top prospect and strong ace once he entered the league were a huge factor. But also, Max Fried’s 8-year, $218 million deal with the Yankees warrants some consideration, too. Although that eighth year is clearly meant as a circumvention of the Competitive Balance Tax (by lowering the average annual value of the deal), 7 or 8 years and $218+ million are now firmly in play. Burnes is a better pitcher than Fried and he’s a year younger — 2025 will be his age-30 season, while Fried will begin his age-31 season.
With all that in mind, I’ll bring us back to Wheeler, who kicks off a 3-year, $126 million extension in 2025 in what will be his age-35 season. The pandemic year of 2020 really messes with things, but Wheeler was set to earn $21.5 million before the lockdown in what was the first year of a 5-year, $118 million contract. Add these two deals together and it’s an 8-year, $244 million deal, so either way, we’re talking about being in the ballpark of the Stephen Strasburg deal.
Personally, I think the Giants should just do this deal; but, if the reporting is accurate, why haven’t they? You can’t reasonably argue that the team is against signing pitchers to long-term deals because they’re invested in either Burnes or Roki Sasaki or both. So, with $218 million as a floor and $244/$245 million total value as a ceiling, let’s guess where in the middle the Giants might’ve landed. I’ll do that by looking at average annual value.
The Wheeler and Strasburg comps are basically in the $31-$35 million range. Blake Snell set the Giants’ record last season with his $31 million AAV. Willy Adames ($26 million) and Matt Chapman ($25.167 million) are currently the team leaders for 2025. Budget-wise, the team is about $41.3 million under the first luxury tax threshold for this year and around $160.6 million in real money payroll.
I suspect the team wants to keep that AAV as low as possible and they might even be cool with an 8th year for a pitcher, if for no other reason than his age. Fried’s contract has an AAV of $27.25 million, which I presume the Giants will be fine with beating because, again, Burnes is a better pitcher. Burnes is a Cy Young winner who has received votes for the award in each of the last five seasons — but, let’s assume the $30 million+ AAV figure is reserved for generational MVPs and multiple Cy Young winners (at least in the Giants’ mind).
Does this help us arrive at what the Giants might have offered? It gives me two ideas:
8 years, $225 million
In this case, Burnes’ deal has a $28.125 million average annual value. Maybe there are some deferrals to lower that a bit for the real money payroll, but in any case, that beats Fried and it shows that the two parties are apart by $20 million, which seems like a pretty normal gap for high-powered free agents and crown jewel franchises to negotiate in the press over.
8 years, $236 million
Basically the same deal but with an AAV more reflective of the player’s value, relative to his comps. For this, I’ve bailed on the Wheeler-Strasburg comp and looked at Blake Snell’s new AAV ($31.735 million pre-deferral) and Fried’s ($27.25 million) and settling on the midway point ($29.4925 million).
I’ll admit, they’re very close to being the same deal, but the Giants nickel-and-diming a long-term deal makes a lot of sense to me. It doesn’t make sense to me that they’ve offered like a 3-year $100 million deal or some such because of Max Fried’s megadeal, but I admit, I can’t see why the Giants wouldn’t have wrapped this up by now if they’re within (a rumored) $9 million. Now, if the sticking point is 7 years versus 8, that would be meaningful, as the AAVs for $225 million, $235 million, and $245 million over 7 years is meaningful for a team that doesn’t want to pay the competitive balance tax and still needs to make a move or two.
What do you think?