The Giants had a great April, but is May shaping up to be the defining month of the season?
While working on the latest check-in with LaMonte Wade Jr.’s disintegrating bat, I stopped by Heliot Ramos’s Statcast and thought, “hey, these don’t look too bad — is he doing okay?” And then he had a great series in Minnesota and overall, he’s 12-for-30 in May (.400/.472/.800). So, that got me thinking, how’s May looking for the rest of the lineup compared to April?
And that’s really the issue here. You can’t really assume much in baseball, but for planning purposes, let’s figure that the pitching staff is not worth fretting about for at least the next 6 weeks (possible areas of concern: Justin Verlander, Jordan Hicks, Landen Roupp, and Ryan Walker) and just focus on the lineup, because that’s an obvious problem today.
In the Twins series preview, I noted how the Giants’ lineup was flopping just in time to run into a season-long buzzsaw that has been the Twins’ pitching. Over the last 3 weeks (20 games), the Giants are 21st in offense (91 wRC+) and have stopped hitting the ball hard (.120 ISO – 26th). They’ve also stopped walking much. Their 8.6% team walk rate is 13th, tied with Atlanta — however, I should note that my initial value range was their last 19 games, which had them at an 8% walk rate and 18th overall, tied with Minnesota and Toronto. Their 21.4% team strikeout rate is 14th in MLB. But that three-week stretch jumps from April to May. But you can see how things change a bit over just a few games.
If we accept that “the pitchers are ahead of the hitters” coming out of Spring Training — or even vice versa — there’s certainly an argument to be made that May is a better indicator of how players might perform over the next few months. Now, this isn’t to say that May determines the season from a global perspective. The Giants have certainly had great Mays and terrible Septembers lately — I’m just talking about individual players and, particularly, players the team had hoped to rely on while making their offseason plans.
Heliot Ramos’s last 9 games has boosted his season line to .278/.347/.483 (.831 OPS) which is better than last year’s .269/.322/.469 but at the same time, right around where the Giants had hoped he’d be as he continues to develop his All-Star talent. So, does this mean that his May performance has brought him more in line with the preseason expectation/projection? I’d say yes.
So, let’s take a look at the season lines for most of the lineup and then see how much April or May played a part in them. Have they positively or negatively regressed to a mean? From that, let’s predict whether they’ve hit their ceiling or if there’s room for more.
Heliot Ramos
2025: .278/.347/.483 (170 PA), 7 HR, 19 RBI, 7.6% BB%, 23.5% K%, .205 ISO
April: .248/.313/.405 (134 PA), 4 HR, 11 RBI, 7.5% BB%, 25.4% K%, .157 ISO
May: .400/.472/.800 (36 PA), 3 HR, 8 RBI, 8.3% BB%, 16.7% K%, .400 ISO
Review: He was a perfectly average hitter in the first month of the season (103 wRC+ — 94th in MLB). The problem is that he was expected to be a middle of the order bat. Here’s a great example of the pitchers possibly being ahead of hitters here, because once the calendar flipped, he blossomed into a middle of the order guy. Admittedly, that’s thanks to three monster games, but that’s sort of how it goes for power hitters, right? The real issue is that all three games were on the road; indeed, he’s got a severe home/road split.
At Oracle: .241 average, 1 HR, 0 2B, 6 BB, 13 K
Away: .301 average, 6 HR, 10 2B, 7 BB, 27 K
.278/.347/.483 — ceiling or room for more?
Ceiling. To be clear, Heliot Ramos is a good baseball player who is showing flashes of being a very good — possibly even great — one. No, he won’t hit .400/.472/.800 the rest of the way, but somewhere around a .200 ISO? Very plausible. He did that just last season.
On the other hand, he’s got a lot of chase (21st percentile chase %) and swing & miss (53rd percentile Whiff %), but when he makes contact he makes hard contact. That’s the most predictive stat when it comes to a hitter’s value, so as long as that talent persists, he will be fine. The infusion of these May numbers has moved that season triple slash line squarely into my hope for his end of 2025 line. But even if his ceiling is last year’s line, that’s still a good outcome for the Giants, and it certainly seems like he’s on track for that at the worst.
Jung Hoo Lee
2025: .286/.333/.461 (168 PA), 4 HR, 24 RBI,
April: .319/.375/.526 (128 PA), 3 HR, 18 RBI, 8.6% BB%, 13.3% K%, .207 ISO
May: .184/.200/.263 (40 PA), 1 HR, 6 RBI, 0.0 BB%, 10.0% K%, .079 ISO
Review: Is he the exception to “pitchers are ahead of the hitters” coming out of Spring Training, evidence of the opposite (“hitters are ahead of the pitchers”) being true, proof that one can be a student of the game and get better through study — he had a loooooooot of time off last season following shoulder surgery — or have major league pitchers simply figured him out? Lee looks like a good enough hitter that a bad 40 PA stretch could be evidence of nothing and go on a tear over the next couple of weeks to wipe away these early May results.
He’s hit .196/.208/.261 over his last 12 games (48 PA), and while that’s obnoxious, it’s hardly evidence of a player who’s been figured out. He’s played 4 teams in this bunch and 2 of them (San Diego, Minnesota) feature the best pitching in the sport while the other two (Colorado, Chicago) do not. Lo and behold, he was 3-for-19 against San Diego and Minnesota and 6-for-27 against Colorado and the Cubs. Now, 6-for-27 isn’t good either, but we might simply be in an adjustment period for Lee.
Statcast has this neat rolling Swing & Miss % graph for Lee in 2025:
.286/.333/.461 — ceiling or room for more?
Room for more. I think this is a familiarity issue. He has just 326 major league plate appearances. There’s going to be back and forth as he acclimates and adjusts and opposing pitching staffs do the same. I did a quick perusal of .800+ OPSes over the past 10 seasons and I think Jung Hoo Lee matches up quite well with a lot of players who aren’t exactly known for being power hitters — but he does have power in his game, along with an above average on base skill.
Matt Chapman
2025: .225/.360/.437 (172 PA), 8 HR, 24 RBI, 17.4% BB%, 26.7% K%, .211 ISO
April: .198/.356/.377 (132 PA), 5 HR, 16 RBI, 19.7% BB%, 27.3% K%, .179 ISO
May: .306/.375/.611 (40 PA), 3 HR, 8 RBI, 10.0% BB% 25.0% K%, .306 ISO
Review: When I think of Matt Chapman, I think of low batting average, lots of power, an amazing glove, and fun-to-watch footspeed. The only thing that was really off in April was the power. Sure, sure, a .198 batting average is a bad look, but look where he is now. A .225 batting average is very Chapmanian. He has been the least of the Giants’ lineup issues, and all May has done is bring the average and slug closer in line with his career averages.
.225/.360/.437 — ceiling or room for more?
Ceiling. You could futz around with those totals a little bit and he might still land in the .790-.797 OPS range (he was at .790 last season). He’s a career .791 OPS guy and he turned 32 in April. Don’t get me wrong: I’d love to see Matt Chapman breach the .800 OPS barrier for the first time since 2020, but even if he doesn’t, this is still a very productive player.
Willy Adames
2025: .217/.297/.335 (182 PA), 4 HR, 19 RBI, 9.9% BB%, 25.8% K%, .118 ISO
April: .208/.292/.300 (137 PA), 2 HR, 15 RBI, 10.9% BB%, 23.4% K%, .092 ISO
May: .244/.311/.439 (45 PA), 2 HR, 4 RBI, 6.7% BB%, 33.3% K%, .195 ISO
Review: What if Willy Adames’s poor April has caused his strikeout rate to explode here in May (he’s pressing to make up for many missed moments) while also explaining the expected jump in power? Oh wait — no, that’s explained solely by his 2-home run game against the Rockies on May 4th, which also included a double. Since then, he’s 4-for-26 with only 1 extra base hit: a double. He’s struck out 11 times and walked once.
.217/.297/.335 — ceiling or room for more?
Room for more. It would kind of have to be this, right? Otherwise, he’d be unplayable. If he was just the May version, the Giants would get a decent approximation of last year’s Willy Adames (.251/.331/.462), but at this point, I think the best case scenario is the 2023 version: .217/.310/.407 with 24 HR, 80 RBI, an 11.1% walk rate against a 25.9% strikeout rate and 3.3 wins above replacement (per FanGraphs) thanks to superlative defense at shortstop (+17.4 Defensive Runs Above Average). Right now, the Giants are seeing an Adames on course for the worst defensive season of his career (-1.8 Defensive Runs Above Average through just 41 games) and the worst offensive season he’s ever had. He doesn’t need to have more 2-home run games. He just needs to have fewer 0-fers or, at the very least, get better on defense. I’m not so sure about the defense, but the stats on the bat advise cautious optimism:
Mike Yastrzemski
2025: .276/.374/.449 (147 PA), 5 HR, 17 RBI, 12.9% BB%, 19.7% K%, .173 ISO
April: .275/.383/.505 (107 PA) 5 HR, 14 RBI, 14.0% BB%, 19.6% K%, .231 ISO
May: .278/.350/.306 (40 PA), 0 HR, 3 RBI, 10.0% BB%, 20.0% K%, .028 ISO
Review: Mike Yastrzemski is a good baseball player who had a great first month of the season. May has introduced some negative regression to the mean, but that’s not the end of the world for the Giants.
.276/.374/.449 — ceiling or room for more?
Ceiling! I’m not sure if he’s on his way to having his best season since the COVID-shortened 2020, which is what this line would be. He’s an older player who has a tendency to get hurt and is much closer to being a three true outcomes guy than a full service hitter. I will add that despite a season line of .231/.302/.437 last season, he hit .243/.309/.466 over his final 77 games (272 PA) and the Giants were 40-37 in an 80-82 season; so, as Yaz goes so goes the Giants, and this start to the season isn’t too surprising.
But you can expect that batting average to drop along with the on base percentage. On the other hand, that slugging percentage very well could hover around .449 or .450.
Wilmer Flores
2025: .243/.298/.407 (151 PA), 7 HR, 33 RBI, 6.6% BB%, 21.2% K%, .164 ISO
April: .229/.282/.422 (117 PA), 7 HR, 28 RBI, 6.0% BB%, 22.2% K%, .193 ISO
May: .290/.353/.355 (34 PA), 0 HR, 5 RBI, 8.8% BB%, 17.6% K%, .065 ISO
Review: He was the hero of April, and for the first couple of weeks there it looked like he had not only fully recovered from knee surgery, but had returned to being the team’s best hitter, as he was in 2023. Unfortunately, he has Old Man’d so hard here in May that Kerry Crowley’s assessment in the latest KROG Podcast with friend of the site Roger Munter that he be relegated to pinch hit duty is inarguable.
.243/.298/.407 — ceiling or room for more?
Room for more. Sure, Wilmer Flores can’t play the field. He’s slow. Perhaps as flexible as a middle aged man with an office job and 2-hour commute (ahem). He’s had some big hits already and he’s been a tough out in 2025, for the most part. If this is it, it was a great ride.
Having said that…
This was close to what word on the street was in 2023 when Wilmer Flores hit .233/.281/.49 through May. We’re still talking about what happened next.
Over the final four months of the season, he was the Giants’ best hitter, aslshing .308/.387/.551 (.938 OPS) with 17 HR and 44 RBI in 315 PA. So, you know, he’s WILMER FLORES until he erases all doubt, and he hasn’t done that yet.
Patrick Bailey
2025: .181/.219/.257 (114 PA), 0 HR, 12 RBI, 5.3% BB%, 32.5% K%, .076 ISO
April: .160/.207/.235 (87 PA), 0 HR, 9 RBI, 5.7% BB%, 35.6% K%, .074 ISO
May: .250/.259/.333 (27 PA), 0 HR, 3 RBI, 3.7% BB%, 22.2% K%, .083 ISO
Review: Bad hitter getting worse?
.181/.219/.257 — ceiling or room for more?
Room for more. It would be bad for the Giants’ front office to stick with Bailey as the starting catcher all season long if this was the best they could get from his bat. I suspect he’s got more upside in there, but I’m about as confident as a coin flip. Can the Giants survive such a below average hitter? If you want to throw out Martin Maldonado from the Astros as a the counterargument, fine, I’ll grant you that. Maldonado was the starting catcher for Houston from 2020 through 2024. He played in 402 games across these 4 seasons, amassing 1,377 plate appearances and posted a triple slash of .186/.271/.338 with a 9.2% walk rate and 31.4% strikeout rate… “good” enough for a 71 wRC+ — 29% worse than league average.
Bailey was 81 wRC+ last season and 76 the year before. He’s at 32 right now. To match the average of his prior two season totals, he needs to lower his strikeout rate by 7.5% and increase his walk rate by 2%. More importantly, he needs to hit the ball a bit harder. The good news there is that his bat speed year over year has remained about the same, so, this could mean he’s an adjustment away from having a good few weeks or that stabilizes his season line. Indeed, the rolling hard hit rate tracking by Statcast might indicate he’s on the upswing in that area:
That’s the benefit of a small May sample, I suppose, but just as I got excited by Yaz’s start to 2025 in part because of how he finished last season, I am equally dismayed by Bailey for the same reasons. Over the final two months of 2024, he hit .164/.210/.219 with 8 walks and 34 strikeouts. Add that to his start and it’s .172/.214/.236 over his last 76 games.
LaMonte Wade Jr.
2025: .145/.246/.245 (127 PA), 1 HR, 13 RBI, 11.8% BB%, 22.8% K%, .100 ISO
April: .125/.253/.238 (87 PA), 1 HR, 10 RBI, 14.6%, 26.0% K%, .113 ISO
May: .200/.226/.267 (31 PA), 0 HR, 3 RBI, 3.2% BB%, 12.9% K%, 0.67 ISO
Review: I’ve talked about LaMonte Wade Jr.’s season at the plate a couple of times already (back in April and last week). This has been a really bad start to the season. I don’t know what’s going on with his launch angle (26.6 degrees) which is much higher than his career average (17.9 degrees). Just look at this chart: he’s #1 in launch angle! His profile doesn’t match the players he’s next to on this list. He’s a walks and doubles guy. Was he told to hit the ball in the air more? It’s not working so far (if that’s what’s going on here).
.145/.246/.245 — ceiling or room for more?
Room for more. But it’s not trending in that direction. He looks very much like a player who has moved himself to the chopping block as soon as the Giants have a better option. That could be Jerar Encarnacion, it could be Bryce Eldridge in a couple of months — but he hasn’t really performed and there’s not enough in the underlying numbers to suggest a meaningful turnaround is approaching.
So, figure Ramos, Chapman, and Yastrzemski will perform over the rest of the season at about where their season lines are now. I think Jung Hoo Lee has the chance to perform even a little bit better than he’s shown (current mini slump notwithstanding). There’s definitely room for improvement for Willy Adames, possibly Wilmer Flores, and hopefully Patrick Bailey. There are definitely wild cards, too: players not mentioned here but already on the roster and in the organization, or possibly LaMonte Wade Jr. At worst, the Giants have a decent foundation here in May.
What they need is for one or two wildly positive surprises. Maybe it’s Heliot Ramos continuing to bludgeon the baseball or Matt Chapman having one last amazing year, or Wilmer Flores going 2023 again, but LaMonte Wade Jr. and Willy Adames hitting back towards league average (100 wRC+) would be just as helpful. Regrettably, it doesn’t look like they’re just as likely breakouts, and so we turn our fretting minds to wildly positive surprises to propel the lineup the rest of the season. Save us, wildly positive surprises.