The Giants still have a glimmer of a spark of a hope of playoff odds, but they don’t have a lineup that engenders any more hope than that.
Patrick Bailey’s trip to the IL will improve the San Francisco Giants simply by subtraction.
The lineup will, temporarily, shed the second-worst hitter in baseball since August 1st. Bailey’s line of .057/.089/.075 in 56 plate appearances registers as a -56 wRC+. That’s just slightly better than Atlanta’s Adam Duvall, whose -61 wRC+ has come in 20 plate appearances (.053/.100/.053).
Brett Wisely, optioned to make room for Thairo Estrada, was hitting .160/.182/.200 across 26 August plate appearances, an 11 wRC+, which was the 19th-worst in the sport; or, to put it another way, 338th out of 356 players with at least 20 plate appearances (Bailey was 355th). Still, even with those two no longer serving as a drag coefficient, the Giants have problems with their lineup.
Casey Schmitt’s .353 slugging percentage (thanks to a pair of home runs) has buoyed him to 301st, but a 43 wRC+ isn’t so hot. Mike Yastrzemski’s 73 wRC+ is 254th out of 356. And there’s LaMonte Wade Jr. with an 87 wRC+ (215th).
Now, obviously, I need to point out that this is a small sample size. Shohei Ohtani leads the league in plate appearances since August 1st with 84 and he’s hitting just .195/.250/.532 (107 wRC+). Tyler Fitzgerald checks in with 82 PA and a triple slash of .329/.366/.605 (169 wRC+). And just to show the flip side of the sampling: Duvall’s 20 PAs and worst value is flipped by 31-year old Dairon Blanco of the Kansas City Royals who, on the season, is hitting just .257/.293/.394 (87 wRC+), but in 20 August PAs is the 6th-best hitter in baseball, slashing .350/.350/.800 (215 wRC+). So, yes, obviously, sampling has something to do here.
All of the Giants had been better coming into the month. As of July 31st:
LaMonte Wade, Jr. (243 PA): 137 wRC+
Mike Yastrzemski (293 PA): 111 wRC+
Patrick Bailey (310 PA): 109 wRC+
Casey Schmitt (51 PA): 100 wRC+
Brett Wisely (189 PA): 92 WRC+
So, what are the alternatives? The team can’t really afford to wait out improvements from all 5 players. We know that Bailey’s season is in peril with that oblique injury. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle suggests Colorado’s Elias Díaz, an All-Star last year (in fact, the All-Star Game MVP!) recently cut by the Rockies, could be a temporary replacement option.
He hasn’t played since August 13th, though, and was in the midst of a second half slump (.204/.218/.278 in 55 PA). Jakson Reetz and Curt Casali might provide a bump to the lineup just by being closer to league average, but the defensive downgrade might be enough to wipe out their contributions — unless the Giants can pick up the slack some other way.
LaMonte Wade Jr.’s leg problems don’t seem like they’re going to resolve in-season and so it’s tough to think of him as someone who can bounce back and get hot by the end of the season. Maybe they can phantom IL him to give him one last bit of rest before September to freshen him up a bit, but even in that scenario, a player or two will need to step in to provide a similar threat.
Thairo Estrada and Grant McCray are suddenly critical Giants. If both of them can pick up the slack — even if only temporarily — the lineup goes back to better than average. Then there’s Mike Yastrzemski, who hit .268/.312/.451 (.762 OPS) in 21 games out of the break (the Giants went 14-7). In his last 9 games, he’s hit .172/.250/.207 and the Giants have gone 4-5.
The team is just 11-7 in August when they could be 13-5 with a tiny bit more offense. On the month, they’re registered just a 99 wRC+ (17th in MLB). With only one exception, the teams behind them are a list of Who’s Not Going to the Postseason in 2024: Oakland (94), Cincinnati (94), Angels (93), Guardians (92 – exception #1), Cardinals (92), Pirates (91), Marlins (90), Mariners (89), Rangers (89), Tigers (85), Rockies (83), Rays (76), White Sox (76).
The Cubs are 5.5 games out of the 3rd Wild Card and 2 games behind the Giants, even, but they’re in a part of the schedule like the one the Giants are just coming out of (playing many, many games in a row against sub-.500 teams) and that plus average or better than average hitting seems like a recipe to propel them ahead of the Giants.
They currently have a team wRC+ of 101 here in August — though, I should point out that the month line is buoyed by their first 9 games where they went 7-2: .270/.322/.480 (.802 OPS). In their most recent 7 games (3 in Cleveland, 3 home vs. Toronto, and 1 home vs. Detroit), they’re slashing .183/.260/.356 (.616 OPS) — and, again, this is the point in their season where the schedule is tipping in their favor.
The Giants don’t need much to get better on offense and a little improvement will go a long way. This is the part of the season where Jung Hoo Lee was supposed to have started to figure it all out; Marco Luciano might’ve come up and been a contributor if he hadn’t done (thing or things we’ll find out in the offseason or in the midst of a September collapse). If the Giants had kept Jorge Soler would the outlook be rosier? If LaMonte Wade Jr.’s hammies were more cooperative would that be the same thing?
They just need a nudge in a positive direction — before the positive contributors have their cold streaks. But they’re at a point in the season where there are deficits in the lineup that need to be overcome.