Is this the bold move that the Giants need in 2025?
The San Francisco Giants have probably put themselves in a position where they shouldn’t stand pat at the trade deadline, and that means it’s time to consider the implications of that. Their 40-29 record is their third-best start to a season in a decade after 2021 (44-25) and 2016 (43-26). Is this the year to go big?
Fourteen years ago, Buster Posey’s shattered ankle compelled Brian Sabean to trade top pitching prospect Zack Wheeler to the Mets for the Hall of Fame-bound Carlos Beltrán. He had a .920 OPS in 44 games, but he missed a couple of weeks with injury soon after the trade and that missing time was enough to prevent the Giants from getting back to the postseason after winning the World Series in 2010.
The 2025 Giants aren’t quite as motivated. The hard work of reestablishing relevance by course correction has been completed. Dominic Smith, Daniel Johnson, and Andrew Knizner aren’t the depth moves that would’ve been made in recent seasons nor are they the final moves Buster Posey and Zack Minasian will make this season, but if the tweaks are working, is there a strong need to land a big fish on the position player side via trade?
I’m now several days late to Tim Kawakami’s article at The San Francisco Standard that talks about Posey’s admiration for the Wheeler for Beltrán deal of 2011. The tone hypes a big trade narrative (though is quick to mention that it’s no guarantee), and we’ve heard stories since the offseason that Buster Posey has been trying to swing big trades, so there’s certainly reason to believe that the Giants are interested in going big at the deadline. Is there a “Wheeler for Beltrán” comp out there?
I can only figure that out by considering a few details from the original deal:
- We don’t need to get caught up in what Zack Wheeler has become (a #1 starter who is pitching his way into the Hall of Fame), only keep in mind that he was the team’s #1 prospect at the time (I’m bumping him up because Brandon Belt had already been promoted).
- Carlos Beltrán was already a no doubt Hall of Famer at the time of the swap and on an expiring contract.
- Sandy Alderson was alleged to have asked for either Wheeler or OF Gary Brown (the team’s #2 prospect) for Beltrán, and Brian Sabean went with Wheeler.
It’s difficult to generate a 2025 equivalent because there isn’t a no doubt Hall of Famer in the final year of his contract out there and we don’t know who the Giants’ top pitching prospect is. As Andrew Baggarly points out in his trade deadline primer this morning:
Giants broadcaster Mike Krukow shared an interesting insight in an appearance on KNBR last week.
“Buster Posey recently asked me, ‘Between Hayden Birdsong, Landen Roupp and (Kyle) Harrison, who do you think is the best one?’” […]
Is Posey already beginning to assemble a pecking order when it comes to the Giants’ wealth of young pitching? It certainly seems that way.
Carson Whisenhunt is technically the team’s top pitching prospect, according to MLB Pipeline. That gives four possible options, though as Baggarly suggests, Roupp’s age (26) probably bumps him out of the mix in a headline-grabbing deal. But, I’m trying to put together a 1:1 comp here, so I need to make a decision. In that case, I agree with Mike Krukow’s conclusion: it’s Kyle Harrison. He’s got the best upside of the bunch with a limited enough track record that other teams can still dream on him. Birdsong and Roupp can be seen as development successes with a more limited upside, and Whisenhunt’s lack of major league experience might make him less appealing. So, yeah, Kyle Harrison is our Wheeler.
If the 2025 Sandy Alderson equivalent asked for the 2025 Wheeler or the 2025 Brown in exchange for the 2025 Carlos Beltrán, then, that would be either Harrison or Eldridge for 2025 Carlos Beltrán. Which leads us to the last problem: there is no 2025 Carlos Beltrán.
Not exactly.
In the 13 seasons prior to Carlos Beltrán’s 2011, he had amassed 55.1 fWAR. The equivalent players in 2025: Jose Altuve (57.8), Paul Goldschmidt (55.8), Francisco Lindor (54.3), Manny Machado (53.6), Bryce Harper (52.5), Jose Ramirez (51.5), Aaron Judge (51.4), Nolan Arenado (50.7). I must also note that Buster Posey is right after Harper (52.4), but he’s not active.
Since I can’t imagine why Houston would trade Jose Altuve, the only plausible (though still highly improbable) move, then, would seem to be Kyle Harrison for Paul Goldschmidt. I’m not sure either team makes that move. Beltrán was in his age-34 season at the time of the deal and the Mets were muddling through a rebuild. Goldschmidt is 37 and the Yankees are in 1st place in part because of him. I don’t discount that Buster Posey values experience and track record and in-season performance over age, but the Yankees say no immediately.
The only other player who stands out is Kyle Schwarber. The left-handed DH is in the final year of his deal, is just 32, and is on a 40-home run pace once again. The Phillies, though, are in 2nd place, and Schwarber’s a key part of their inconsistent lineup. They also have the third-best pitching staff in the sport, so they don’t need what the Giants are offering. The only reason I’m bothering to mention him is that the team hit a 1-9 skid recently and that’s got people wondering if it’s time for them to shake things up.
So, as you can see, the lack of a Beltrán-type makes this comparison all but impossible. When we start to consider other players who could help the lineup but don’t fit the potential/actual Hall of Famer mold, the truth is laid bare: which pitcher should the Giants deal in order to upgrade the lineup? Take away “top prospect,” too, and the exercise becomes a little easier.
Ryan O’Hearn has been a guy the McCoven have been pushing for since at least last season. The 31-year old 1B/DH has a .798 OPS in his three seasons with the Orioles, and this year he’s slashing .307/.389/.482 in 229 PA.
The Angels’ Tyler Ward has the fourth-best ISO (Isolated Power) average (.267) in the sport behind Judge, Schwarber, and Arizona’s Eugenio Suarez. He’s hit 18 home runs in 66 games this season. The Minasian Brothers just completed their first trade, but I don’t see them completing one that involves Ward because, as with O’Hearn, I’m not sure I see the value for the Giants in trading away a potentially great player for an adequate one.
Ward is under team control for another season, so that might be enough motivation, but he’s basically had one great season (136 wRC+ in 2022). He’s slashed .239/.313/.434 over the past three seasons, a 107 wRC+; and, after posting a 9.5% walk rate in each of the past two, it’s down to 7% here in 2025 and his strikeout rate has jumped to 28%. I don’t think the Giants should trade Kyle Harrison or Carson Whisenhunt or Hayden Birdsong for another Jerar Encarnacion. Maybe Landen Roupp.
The other part of “Wheeler for Beltran” is that it was a sensible bold move. The upside was greater than the downside and both teams benefited. In an age Moneyball-addled introverts who only care about zero sum operation, imbalance is the starting point and bold can only mean more downside risk. Mike Elias was a genius until he wasn’t, and it’s easy to imagine him asking for the Giants’ top prospect for O’Hearn and settling for some other team’s 15th-best prospect when Posey doesn’t budge. The market is populated by irrational actors who seek to take advantage of the new guy and the former jock.
If Buster Posey wants to make a bold move, then he’ll have to get wild.