Which hopes and dreams were fulfilled, and which were dashed by the first half?

The Giants managed to carry over their Spring Training success to the regular season, but what didn’t follow?

Fifteen weeks ago, I composed a list of hopes and dreams for the 2025 San Francisco Giants. The team enters the All-Star break with a 52-45 record, their sixth-best “first half” record since 2010. It hasn’t all been rainbows and walk-offs, but it’s been successful enough, with the team just half a game out of the Wild Card. So, let’s look at that list to see which hopes and dreams have been fulfilled, and which might already have been dashed.

Hope

The Spring Training results transfer over to the regular season for the most part

FULFILLED. The Giants ended April with a 19-12 record, and even though they’ve gone just 33-33 since, they’ve remained competitive.

Landen Roupp’s spring carries over

FULFILLED. He’s been about the 65th-most valuable starter in the majors this season thanks to a 3.66 FIP. He’s struck out 89 in 96.1 IP, too. But here’s the thing: he’s only gotten better. Unlike the team’s overall record, his “since May 1st” numbers have provided even more value. He’s got a 2.44 ERA (3.55 FIP) in 66.1 IP (13 starts) with just 4 home runs allowed.

Hayden Birdsong is That Guy

TBD. We have half a season to see which way this goes. It might wind up fulfilled rather than dashed. Admittedly, the results haven’t been all that promising. His first 11 appearances came as a reliever, and in that role he posted a 2.31 ERA (4.71 FIP) in 23.1 IP. Since getting back into the rotation, he has a 5.10 ERA (4.66 FIP) in 42.1 IP and has made it through 5 innings in just 4 of his 9 starts. He’s walked 12% of the batters he’s faced over this span, too. He’s not heading into the break on a high note and he’s looking at a career innings threshold in the second half that could end any roll he might get on.

Logan Webb stays healthy

JINX. I don’t want to talk about this one. He’s an All-Star. That’s enough.

Ryan Walker regresses to an awesome mean

TBD. It wasn’t looking good there for the first few months, but he’s made a mechanical fix that has him throwing 97+ mph again.

The roster is Melvin-proof

FULFILLED. He has Buster Posey’s vote of confidence for 2026 and there hasn’t been any weird lineup or position player controversy. Quite the opposite. The players are thrilled to have consistent roles in a predictable setting.

The Giants win at least 82 games

TBD. Now, this hope is far from DASHED because they’re just 30 wins away with 65 remaining. Fans are right to cling to that 19-12 start and the half game out from a Wild Card position as the second half begins, but they’re .500 since May 1st and going 30-35 the rest of the way would be in line with what we’ve seen. They could still miss the mark, but if that comes to pass, I think it’d be because something unexpectedly negative happened.

Heliot Ramos and Tyler Fitzgerald don’t crater

DASHED. Because I linked these two, I have to set aside Ramos’s 119 wRC+. Tyler Fitzgerald has been a disaster at the plate and that power-speed combo nonexistent. He’s a great defender up the middle, but so’s Patrick Bailey, and having that many glove-only guys in a lineup that has a ceiling of league average is not something the team can afford. Enter Casey Schmitt as the starting second baseman going forward.

Ramos has been awful the past month, too. In his last 28 games (120 PA), he’s hitting just .176 with 30 strikeouts against 7 walks and 7 extra base hits. He’s had just 2 extra base hits in July, too. This isn’t to say that Ramos has been exposed and is destined for a bench role, only that it makes it easier to make a final judgment about this hope midseason.

Willy Adames and Matt Chapman are the anchors

TBD. Well, they were anchors of a different sort for most of the first half. Like concrete boots that sunk the offense to the bottom of the bay. Adames with his poor performance and Chapman with his absence. Chapman didn’t get any rehab time after returning from the IL and now he’s got to sit for the All-Star break, so I’m a little bit afraid to see how much longer this funk will continue (he’s 7-for-37 with 11 strikeouts since the sprained wrist).

Wilmer Flores torments major league pitching again

FULFILLED. Look, that’s exactly what he did coming out of Spring Training. He was 5th in RBI through May. Now, since June 1st, he’s obviously hit himself into being a DFA candidate, but we did get to see one last flash of that professional hitter we enjoyed from 2020-2023, and that was the intent behind the hope in the original post.

Bryce Eldridge is a luxury

FULFILLED. That they were able to hold on to him in the Rafael Devers deal suggests he’s something more than that in that he wasn’t expendable, but the team isn’t in such dire straits that they need to throw a Hail Mary and get him onto the major league roster. Of course, even if they wanted to, they couldn’t, as he’s spent a decent amount of time on the injured list already.

Jung Hoo Lee is a necessity

FULFILLED. Has he been “the straw that stirs the drink,” as I suggested he’d need to be? Yes, I think so. And his hitting struggles have coincided with the lineup being sub-average. A lineup of Devers-Adames-Ramos-Chapman with Lee being that pesky guy at the top or just behind them is exactly the shape the offense needs to have going forward.

Dreams

Kyle Harrison regains his velocity

FULFILLED. In fact, he did such a good job that he was a useful part of a massive trade.

At least one Giant hits 30 home runs this year

DASHED. I’m calling it. The Giants will go another season without a 30-home run guy. Heliot Ramos is at 14 with 65 to go. Rafael Devers has hit 17, but he has a disc injury in his lower back and he’s already experienced the Oracle Park effect in some of his plate appearances.

Erik Miller is enough

DASHED. He was already pitching in a danger zone with all the walks he allows but now he’s got arm troubles and figures to miss a decent chunk of the second half. They’ve already turned to Joey Lucchesi and they’re probably going to need to find some bullpen help before the trade deadline.

A zombie form of the Giants-Dodgers rivalry appears

FULFILLED. It looks like the Giants might just barely avoid losing the historical head-to-head in the rivalry — which currently stands at 1,294-1,289-17 in favor of the Giants with 7 games left in the season series — and after this weekend’s spirited series loss, I think the team has managed to reframe the situation. The Dodgers will always be better, but the Giants have managed to put together a roster that doesn’t totally stink against them.

Looking back, these hopes and dreams were a little small. I know why I did that, though. I wanted to protect myself from disappointment. Low expectations, low disappointment. I have made peace with the Giants of today being different from the Giants of April 30th, but I recognize that some fans out there have not, and see a team that’s half a game out of the Wild Card with 65 games to go as being a team that’s fully in it with an exciting summer ahead, and it’s more fun to write to that. Let’s all set ourselves up to be crushed. Let’s add some hopes and dreams.

Remember, hopes are outcomes you believe are possible while dreams are basically wishes.

(New) Hopes

Patrick Bailey keeps it up

Bob Melvin asking him to bunt in extra innings today made logical computer sense, but asking it of the one guy who’s had a penchant for dramatic game-winners felt antithetical to the Vibes Only Giants team that Buster Posey has foisted on us. Since the White Sox series, he’s had a .730 OPS, a span of 15 games and 52 plate appearances. I don’t think Patrick Bailey is a .730 OPS guy, but a .690/.700 guy feels plausible once again and in a way that it hasn’t since 2023?

Randy Rodriguez saves the bullpen

Even if we allow for Ryan Walker’s adjustment and Tyler Rogers’ consistency, the rest of the reliever corps is starting to look a little sketchy. Camilo Doval is closer to being the closer by default rather than the guy who worked hard to seize it from Walker during Walker’s struggles. Spencer Bivens and Tristan Beck are better as low leverage innings eaters, Scott Alexander and Joey Lucchesi are shaky relievers you only want in short bursts. Rodriguez provides the only consistent strikeout stuff in the group, and strikeouts are still the coin of the realm in MLB. He’s been amazing through the first half (0.86 ERA in 41.2 IP). Let’s hope he stays at this level of performance. The Giants will need it.

(New) dreams

The Giants clinch a Wild Card spot

I’m probably in the minority for thinking that this isn’t all that possible. Since June 1st, the Giants’ pitching has been in the bottom third of the league. That coincides with a 93 wRC+ lineup. But the Giants’ lineup has been 5% worse than the league average overall and even if that improves some, I think the pitching is in a lot more trouble than we want to believe. Robbie Ray has been stellar, but he hasn’t logged a full season in a few years. Landen Roupp and Hayden Birdsong oughtn’t be expected to log 140+ innings. Justin Verlander? Boy, I don’t know. So, this feels like a longshot, but that’s why a wish is required.

The Giants trade for Kris Bubic

The left-handed kid from Cupertino is an All-Star for the Royals this season and he’s the kind of force the rotation could use. He has one last year of team control and is currently the 7th-most valuable pitcher in MLB. The ask would be pretty significant, and the Giants might’ve emptied the clip landing Devers, but that’s why it’s here as a wish. They could certainly play around in the Tyler Anderson-Jeffrey Springs-Jose Quintana-Andrew Heaney realm, but I’m just putting it out there that Buster Posey should Bring Bubi Home.

What are your hopes and dreams for the second half?