Nerrrrrrrrrrrrrrp.
The “bigger” half of the season is over. The San Francisco Giants sit 7 wins above .500, solidly in the hunt for a playoff berth, with 97 games under their belt and 65 more to play. As a whole, the Giants should be relatively pleased with where they are going into the post All-Star Break stretch while completely aware that they were carried into this position by the arms of their pitchers. The bats have been dead weight from May on thanks to a myriad of disappointing individual performances that just haven’t been cutting the mustard.
Perhaps the best way to examine this offensive dearth is to look back at an article I wrote in March speculating about possible club droughts that could be ended by the likes of a healthy Jung Hoo Lee, newly signed Willy Adames, and a full-year with Tyler Fitzgerald in the fold…
A bit of a content-grab maybe — the Giants’ overall success has never been dependent on ending these droughts — but the overall tone at the time was clear: optimism abounds for this line-up.
Four months later, tamped down by the heavy heat of late-July, feelings have changed.
20-HR, 20-SB season
Best chance way back when: Willy Adames
Where he’s at now: 12 HR – 4 SB
Is it going to happen? Absolutely not.
Hunter Pence in 2013 was the last player to reach this feat in a Giant uniform. He is by no means the last player to do it in the Majors. Willy Adames got the contract he got from Buster Posey because of his 20-20 performance in Milwaukee. Those types of power-speed numbers are a significant rung to reach in order to be a star in this league. Of course, Adames in his new duds wanted to be a repeat offender…
Going back-to-back with 20-20 seasons was going to be tough after Adames’s sluggish start, and stealing 20 bases was going to be tough under Bob Melvin’s more cautious approach. The Giants tried to hype themselves up in Arizona, talking a big game about stealing bases, but to swipe bags you have to quite literally walk-the-walk. It’s not just raw speed, but aggressiveness and confidence. That was the culture in Milwaukee, and Adames clearly caught the bug, but after two early nabs in just four attempts in April, he pumped the brakes. He hasn’t been caught since, but he’s only tried twice: once in May and once in June. His 0.8% Steal Attempt percentage is half of what it was when he swiped 21 in ‘24.
Last year Adames was sitting at 15 HR – 12 SB at the break. He swiped 9 more bases and then kicked into a higher gear with the bat, going deep 17 more times. That’s an encouraging number to see, but not one that will bait me into a frothy and over-zealous prediction. I’m in my mid-season form and sobered up. Adames is in a groove and has a history of slug in the second half, but I doubt he’ll hit 17 more and tease becoming the first Giant to hit 30 homers since Bonds. That being said it’d be disappointing personally — and perhaps devastating for the outcome of the team as a whole — if he didn’t break 20.
Anyone else close?
Not really. Matt Chapman is sitting at 12 HR – 7 SB, but he’s never stolen more than 15 in a year, so swiping 13 over the next two months with the hesitation that comes after his sprained hand diving into a base doesn’t seem too likely. Similar to Adames though, it’ll be a bust if 2025 ends with Chapman below the 20 homer mark.
30+ SB season
Best chance way back when: Tyler Fitzgerald
Where he’s at now: 9 SB
Is it going to happen? NOPE.
Tyler Fitzgerald leads the Giants in stolen bases so far this season and it’s the lowest team lead in the Majors.
He’s got the speed, he’s maintained the same attempt rate (3%) as last year when he swiped 17 bags — it’s just the opportunities that’s the problem. He’s got less than half of the chances he did last year with about two-thirds the plate appearances. Fitzgerald just wasn’t getting on base, which is a key component of stealing bases. His bat looked broken for most of the year, and he doesn’t walk nearly enough to make up for his lack of ability to reach base through average.
And another thing… he isn’t even a Giant right now, but a Sacramento River Cat — another snag in his quest for 21 steals over the remaining 65 games.
Anyone else close?
Nope. Jung Hoo Lee had announced 30 steals as a goal in Arizona, but he has just 6 in 8 attempts. Maybe if he starts slapping fastballs to the opposite field and recovers some of his average, he might see a modest late-season increase but to get to 30 would have to be a significant and unlikely windfall of opportunity and success, even for the Grandson of the Wind.
Overall, persistent offensive woes for the Giants have created a risk-averse style on the base paths. I guess getting to first has been such a team-wide struggle that when someone gets there, it’s such a relief that they can’t imagine possibly throwing all that away on attempting second.
There was a point in late-May and early June when Bob Melvin said screw it, threw caution to the wind, and tried to jumpstart the stalled jalopy of a line-up with the stolen base. They stole 8 bases (in 9 attempts) in their series against Miami, winning 2 of 3 with 3 SBs in one win and 4 in the other. In the following split series against San Diego, the Giants swiped 5 more without being caught. But whatever itch they had disappeared almost immediately. They swiped just one base in the Colorado (mostly because you don’t need stolen bases to generate offense at Coors), then didn’t steal another one for two weeks. In the 30 games since the beginning of that Rockies series, the Giants have stolen just 4 bases in 7 attempts. They are 45 for 62 on the year, the fourth lowest total in the Majors, and look far from ending the club’s 100+ SB 12-year drought.
30+ HR season
Best chance: Heliot Ramos
Where he’s at now: 14 HR
Is it going to happen? Of course not.
Even with a 15-homer head start for Boston, it doesn’t even look like Rafael Devers will hit number 30 this year as a Giant. He’s hit just two since the trade — but maybe with the break to rest his back and groin, he’ll come back with more power so he can become really frustrated by his new hitting confines.
And still, 30 taters from him won’t really count.
The next highest homer total on the team is Ramos, who will need to rebound from a significant slide at the plate (.198 and .319 SLG in past 30 games), then double his first half total with a month less of games to get within in sniffing distance of the coveted and elusive 30.
An increase in power would of course be welcome from Ramos, but 30 is the wrong number to focus on. It’d be nice to see him raise that average and get on base now that he’s got Devers hitting behind him.
40+ 2B season
Best chance way back when: Matt Chapman
Where’s he at now: 13 2B
Is it going to happen? Ehhhh.
Matt Chapman is going to get hot at some point before this season is over, and it’d be foolish to doubt that his hard-hit rate and sweet swing are going to put up a fair amount of extra base-hits when that streak comes — but closing the gap to 40 feels like a very, very, very long shot. He had 24 going into the All-Star Break last season, and ended the year with 39. He’s got a lot of ground to make-up thanks to his injury absence, and I’d be fine seeing him fall short on that double milestone if it meant more shots over the fence.
Anyone else close?
Jung Hoo Lee leads the team with 19, and a lot of those were hustle doubles without the ball rolling past an outfielder. Speed is going to help inflate his 2B totals, but it will also cost him because if he does clear a glove or roll to the wall, he won’t stop at second. His 8 triples are the second-highest individual total in the Majors. Lee also posted 11 doubles in March/April of this year, an impressive amount that put him well on track to crack 40. That sweet-stroke has cooled considerably, and he logged just eight doubles since, so where he sits now is certainly a disappointment considering his start. Another stretch for sure, but if Lee gets going again (and I hope he does) who knows?
.300 hitter
Best chance way back when: Jung Hoo Lee
Where’s he at now: .249 BA
Is it going to happen? Urrrrrr.
Pre-season, I was skeptical of Lee becoming the Giants’ first .300 hitter since Buster Posey hit .320 in 2017. He’s certainly got the tools to hit for average, but in his first full-season facing a lot of new arms with a significant overall jump in velocity, the mark felt like a stretch. Then Lee hit .319 over his first 30 games and held onto a .300+ average through the first week of May. Hitting was hitting to Lee, no matter the context. It was easy, and it’d look like he’d cruise to 40 doubles and maintain his high-average all season long. But after an 0-for-12 stretch in Chicago and Minnesota that dropped Lee’s average below .300, it never recovered. He hit .231 in May, then an abysmal .143 in June with a depressing amount of rolled ground balls to second, or routine flies to center.
The league adjusted to Lee. They realized his low bat-speed meant he was vulnerable to velocity. He had the discipline to keep his hands back and punish breaking balls and offspeed offerings, but he hadn’t acclimated yet to the fastball. When he started getting attacked with the heat early and often, he needed to cheat more to catch-up which exposed him to other pitches.
I also think Lee has made a conscious decision to try and stay true to his swing’s power alley. A high-average will inevitably be buoyed by a fair share of opposite field pokes. Lee obviously has the contact ability to flip baseballs to the opposite field, but I think during this initial year it might be more of a priority of his to try and replicate some of the power numbers he boasted in the KBO. Homers won’t be a thing – he’s only got six on the year, but add on his doubles and triples, and Lee has 33 extra base hits and a .403 slugging percentage, which is a hair above league-average.
There’s also been positive signs of life in terms of his average. It kicked up after a solid week and a half of games at the plate in July. His triple against Dustin May in the LA series came on an inner-third 97 MPH four-seam fastball that he turned on and lined past the glove of Teoscar Hernandez into the gap.
Feels safe to say that there won’t be enough rain forecasted for the second half to wash away these years-long droughts. A slight bummer, but individual disappointments won’t be a concern if the Giants as a team reach the playoffs — ending the one drought that really matters.