Losing Jonathan Kuminga for nothing would be the Warriors worst-case scenario. How could they react?
The Golden State Warriors season is long over, and with the NBA Finals on the verge of ending, the offseason will officially soon be upon us. So, naturally I began a process of attempting to run through the Warriors offseason as if I was in the basketball operations department to prepare myself for as many possibilities as possible.
Normally I keep most of these notes, which are ultimately just my educated guesses, to myself, but I figured I would share them this year in hopes of helping readers get a sense of the scope of possibilities available to general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. as he works with Joe Lacob and Steve Kerr to build the 2025-26 team.
I ended up compiling 31 different scenarios (34 if you count the Desmond Bane and Kevin Durant scenarios I had to cut after they were traded), and split them into three different parts centered around the Dubs biggest offseason conundrum: Jonathan Kuminga.
Below are 15 scenarios for the Warriors offseason predicated on the team sign-and-trading Kuminga.
(Links to the follow up will be added here when they publish)
Part 1: 6 Re-signing Jonathan Kuminga scenarios
Part 2: 15 Jonathan Kuminga sign-and-trade scenarios
Parameters:
- Assume the Warriors renounce the rights to every free agent except for Kuminga before the start of each scenario.
- I could only have the Warriors trade for the same player in two scenarios (and it had to be a different deal the second time).
- I could only have the Warriors sign the same player as a free agent in one scenario.
- There was no limit on how many scenarios I could have the Warriors re-sign their players.
These restrictions leave Gary Payton II, Kevon Looney, Pat Spencer, and Braxton Key to largely fill out the back ends of these rosters. Payton and Looney could surely be replaced by other vet minimum players the Warriors could attract. Spencer and Key should largely be viewed as placeholders for open competitions that would go through training camp and the preseason, although they would obviously have incumbent advantages.
How the Warriors could handle losing Jonathan Kuminga for nothing (9)
Unlike the previous two circumstances, the Warriors could be put in this position by Kuminga and another team. If a team clears enough cap space to make Kuminga a massive offer sheet, likely $30 million+ per season over four years, the Dubs may be hesitant to match his contract. If that’s the case, they would have no leverage to force a sign-and-trade.
Without Kuminga’s salary, he Warriors would have an easier path to use their trade exception (TPE) and bi-annual exception (BAE) while remaining below the first apron. However, they would have one fewer pieces to maneuver with in potential deals.
Scenario 22: No tax
- Relinquish rights to Jonathan Kuminga
- Sign Clint Capela using TPMLE (one-year, $5.7 million with player option)
- Sign Dante Exum using partial BAE (one-year, $4.25 million)
- Re-sign Gary Payton II (one-year, minimum salary)
- Re-sign Pat Spencer (non-guaranteed one-year, minimum salary)
PG: Steph Curry, Dante Exum, Pat Spencer
SG: Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield
SF: Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody, 41st overall
PF: Draymond Green, Gary Payton II, Gui Santos
C: Clint Capela, Quinten Post, Trayce Jackson-Davis
No scenario should upset Dub Nation more than this. If the Warriors relinquish their rights to Kuminga, presumably because another team came in with a massive offer sheet, the team should be expected to utilize the added salary flexibility in free agency. If Lacob and the front office simply took advantage of the situation to save money and dip below the luxury tax, it would set the stage for some serious questions about the organization’s interest value of Curry’s final seasons.
It would be shortsighted, stupid, and cheap, but that’s always a possibility in professional sports. Besides that, Capela and Exum are both intriguing fallback fits with the Warriors in free agency. Capela is a solid rim running center to pair with Post, while Exum would be an intriguing third guard to pair with Curry and Podziemski.
Scenario 23: Al Horford
- Relinquish rights to Jonathan Kuminga
- Trade 2031 GS 2nd to Bulls for Jevon Carter (TPE), 2028 CHI 2nd
- Sign Al Horford using TPMLE (one-year, $5.7 million with player option)
- Sign Jake LaRavia using BAE (one-year, $5.1 million with player option)
- Sign Jordan McLaughlin (one-year, minimum salary)
- Re-sign Braxton Key (non-guaranteed one-year, minimum salary)
PG: Steph Curry, Jordan McLaughlin, Jevon Carter
SG: Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield, 41st overall
SF: Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody, Braxton Key
PF: Draymond Green, Jake LaRavia, Gui Santos
C: Al Horford, Quinten Post, Trayce Jackson-Davis
If Horford leaves the Celtics in search of another title contender, the Warriors should be among his many potential suitors. Among free agents, Brook Lopez is the only better fit for Golden State than Horford, who can space the floor while also providing sturdy post defense and rebounding. One of the smartest big men in the game, Horford would fit in seamlessly and be an excellent mentor to Post and Jackson-Davis.
With Horford likely signing for the TPMLE, the Warriors would be in position to simply re-sign Kuminga and run things back. However, if Kuminga’s market was too rich for the Dubs to pay, the BAE should be able to land a solid backup power forward, possibly one who can offer some floor spacing like Jake LaRavia.
At that point, the Dubs would have a path to fully dodge the luxury tax, but that could also create an opportunity to absorb an unwanted expiring contract using the TPE to acquire a future draft pick and a contract that could be dealt at the deadline. The Bulls seem like a prime candidate to be willing to send a future second-round pick alongside Carter’s $6.8 million salary.
Carter has fully fallen out of the Bulls rotation but was once a solid backup point guard who flashed solid three-point shooting and impressive perimeter defense. McLaughlin would be a more offense-oriented backup, who is a career 37.3% three-point shooter who will likely be available for a minimum salary.
Scenario 24: Jaylen Brown
- Relinquish rights to Jonathan Kuminga
- Trade Draymond Green, Moses Moody, Buddy Hield, 2026 GS 1st, 2028 GS 1st, right to swap 2031 GS 1st, 2032 GS 1st to Celtics for Jaylen Brown, J.D. Davison
- Sign Larry Nance Jr. using partial TPMLE (one-year, $4.25 million with player option)
- Sign Jaxson Hayes (one-year, minimum salary)
- Sign Ben Simmons (one-year, minimum salary)
- Re-sign Braxton Key (non-guaranteed one-year, minimum salary)
- Re-sign Pat Spencer (non-guaranteed one-year, minimum salary)
PG: Steph Curry, Pat Spencer, J.D. Davison
SG: Jaylen Brown, Brandin Podziemski
SF: Jimmy Butler, Braxton Key, 41st overall
PF: Ben Simmons, Larry Nance Jr., Gui Santos
C: Quinten Post, Jaxson Hayes, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Xavier Tillman
In full transparency, this scenario was originally constructed around Matt Ishbia’s Michigan State obsession in a potential Green, Moody, Hield, and a first-round pick package for Durant deal. Once Durant was traded to the Rockets on Sunday, I added some more draft capital to the deal for Brown. It goes without saying that Jaylen Brown is probably the least likely Celtics player to be traded this offseason, but if he were, he’s one of the few high end salaries the Warriors would be willing to trade Green to acquire.
Despite his limitations, Simmons would be an obvious low-cost free agent target for the Warriors in the event they trade Green this offseason. While Simmons is not as impactful a defensive player, his athleticism, length, and point-forward capabilities would seemingly fit well in Golden State’s system.
Nance is an excellent stretch four who could handle the five in some lineup configurations. An excellent athlete for his size, Nance would be a tremendous fit with the Warriors and coming off a season-ending injury could put him in their price range.
While Hayes was relegated to the bench for the Lakers this postseason, the 25-year old was a perfectly solid role player this past season in Los Angeles. No, he’s unlikely to provide impactful playoff minutes, but as the Warriors eye center depth for the regular season and players with less experience on veteran minimum salaries to dodge various hard caps, Hayes could make a lot of sense.
Scenario 25: Jrue Holiday
- Trade Draymond Green to Celtics for Jrue Holiday, Neemias Queta, BOS 2027 1st (Top-10 Protected)
- Sign Precious Achiuwa using TPMLE (one-year, $5.7 million with player option)
- Re-sign Gary Payton II (one-year, minimum salary)
- Re-sign Braxton Key (non-guaranteed one-year, minimum salary)
- Re-sign Pat Spencer (non-guaranteed one-year, minimum salary)
PG: Steph Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Pat Spencer
SG: Jrue Holiday, Buddy Hield
SF: Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody, Braxton Key
PF: Precious Achiuwa, Gui Santos, Gary Payton II, 41st overall
C: Quinten Post, Neemias Queta, Trayce Jackson-Davis
If there is one contract the Celtics would like to trade most this offseason, it’s probably Holiday’s. While Holiday remains a winning player, he is 35, has seen his production dip over the past two seasons, and has $104.4 million in guarantees remaining on his deal. Swapping him for Green, who is making about $6.6 million less next season and has just $53.5 million in guarantees left on his deal, could be intriguing for both sides.
The Celtics have more offensive firepower and shooting depth than the Warriors to work around Green’s limitations. Moreover, the Celtics are in need of a new frontcourt defensive anchor with Horford and Luke Kornet’s future uncertain and Kristaps Porziņģis in an unpredictable health situation.
Golden State should be hesitant to take on a contract with those long-term guarantees, but Boston has the ability to sweeten the package. Queta is a solid bench center, and a true seven-footer, and he would fit well alongside Post and Jackson-Davis. The Celtics could also include the team’s 2027 first-round pick, as they’ll expect it to be a late first-rounder with Jayson Tatum back from his injury.
Replacing Green’s defensive impact would be difficult, but Holiday is a stabilizing force of his own, and one that should be more seamless for role players to play alongside. In need of a replacement at power forward, the Warriors could use their TPMLE to try and coax Achiuwa away from the Knicks. A hybrid 4/5 who has been searching for a long-term contract, Achiuwa ended up buried on New York’s depth chart this past season. An opportunity to be the most experienced and proven big man in Golden State should be enticing.
Scenario 26: Derrick White
- Relinquish rights to Jonathan Kuminga
- Trade Moses Moody, Buddy Hield, 2026 GS 1st, 2028 GS 1st to Celtics for Derrick White, Baylor Scheierman (TPE)
- Trade right to swap 2032 BOS 2nd to 76ers for Andre Drummond (TPE)
- Sign Torrey Craig (one-year, minimum salary)
- Re-sign Gary Payton II (one-year, minimum salary)
- Re-sign Pat Spencer (non-guaranteed one-year, minimum salary)
PG: Steph Curry, Pat Spencer
SG: Derrick White, Brandin Podziemski, Baylor Scheierman
SF: Jimmy Butler, Torrey Craig, 41st overall
PF: Draymond Green, Gary Payton II, Gui Santos
C: Andre Drummond, Quinten Post, Trayce Jackson-Davis
White is Steve Kerr’s kind of player. After all, the world watched (and joked) and the Warriors head coach played White in the Olympics while Tatum sat at on the bench. Now, with the Celtics hoping to lower their payroll and Golden State searching for a shooting guard, could Kerr end up with one of his favorite glue guys in the Bay Area?
The Celtics would much prefer offloading Porziņģis or Holiday’s contracts this offseason, but Porziņģis’ uncertain health and Holiday’s long-term guarantees will make it difficult to find a taker. White, on the other hand, will have plenty of suitors. The Warriors would be in position to offer a package built around Moody, Hield, and draft picks.
Payton Pritchard is in position to replace White in the Celtics starting lineup, and is under contract for less than $10 million per season. Meanwhile swapping White’s $28.1 million salary for Hield and Moody gives the Celtics deeper wing depth to withstand Tatum’s absence and cut payroll by around $10 million next season (depending on the salary of the roster spot replaced) before calculating luxury tax savings. It would also clear nearly $60 million in long-term commitments off their books.
Scenario 27: Simone Fontecchio & Jonathan Isaac
- Relinquish rights to Jonathan Kuminga
- Trade right to swap GS 2031 2nd, Moses Moody in three-team deal
- Warriors get: Jonathan Isaac, Simone Fontecchio (TPE), ORL 2027 2nd
- Magic get: Moses Moody
- Pistons get: Right to swap GS 2031 2nd
- Sign Trendon Watford using TPMLE (one-year, $5.7 million)
- Re-sign Gary Payton II (one-year, minimum salary)
- Re-sign Pat Spencer (non-guaranteed one-year, minimum salary)
PG: Steph Curry, Pat Spencer, 41st overall
SG: Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield
SF: Jimmy Butler, Simone Fontecchio, Gary Payton II
PF: Draymond Green, Spencer Watford, Gui Santos
C: Jonathan Isaac, Quinten Post, Trayce Jackson-Davis
You want an unexciting offseason? How about letting Kuminga walk while moving Moody for Fontecchio and Isaac? The Dubs would have lost their two most promising young wings with no star power to show for it.
This is the kind of position Golden State could put itself in if it prioritizes veterans over betting on their young prospects. Isaac once would have been the perfect center for the Warriors, but coming off his worst on-court season in years mixed with his long injury history, trading him for Moody and little else feels like an exceptionally underwhelming return.
Fontecchio remains a name to watch if the Warriors do deploy their TPE this offseason. A perfectly fine wing making around $8 million that was completely out of the Pistons rotation, it sure seems like Detroit could be willing to dump his contract for a minimal return.
Scenario 28: Herb Jones
- Relinquish rights to Jonathan Kuminga
- Trade Moses Moody, 2026 GS 1st, 2028 GS 1st to Pelicans for Herbert Jones, 2027 CHI 2nd
- Trade 2027 CHI 2nd, 2031 GS 2nd to Hawks for Georges Niang (TPE)
- Sign Nic Batum using TPMLE (one-year, $5.7 million)
- Sign Cam Payne using partial BAE (one-year, $4 million)
- Re-sign Pat Spencer (non-guaranteed one-year, minimum salary)
PG: Steph Curry, Cam Payne, Pat Spencer
SG: Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield
SF: Jimmy Butler, Herbert Jones, 41st overall
PF: Draymond Green, Nic Batum, Gui Santos
C: Georges Niang, Quinten Post, Trayce Jackson-Davis
On the other end of the spectrum, this is one of the better outcomes for a Dubs team that loses Kuminga for nothing. Jones is one of the best wing defenders in the NBA and has two years at around $14 million per season left on his contract. However, Jones is coming off a season-ending shoulder surgery, which could lead the Pelicans to hold onto him in attempt to recoup more at the deadline.
Still, barring another blockbuster move, the Warriors should absolutely see if New Orleans’ new front office would be interested in a package built around Moody and first-round picks for Jones.
If the Hawks do not trade Trae Young this offseason, and hope to run things back with Jalen Johnson, then Niang becomes a salary dump candidate if the Hawks want to clear some cap space for free agency. Niang is a pure shooting power forward, which would make him a less ideal fit next to Green in the regular season. However, if Kerr was willing to roll with Post and Jackson-Davis at center for 40 minutes per game, Niang could cover some minutes as a stretch five.
In a world where Durant passes on joining Golden State, Batum very well could have been the Warriors big free agent target some years ago. A solid shooting wing with a good feel for passing and defense, aging has turned him more into a power forward. Still, likely attainable for the TPMLE, Batum would be a solid role player in Golden State.
Scenario 29: Daniel Gafford
- Relinquish rights to Jonathan Kuminga
- Trade Buddy Hield, 2026 GS 1st in three-team deal
- Warriors get: Daniel Gafford, ORL 2027 2nd
- Mavericks get: Cole Anthony, GS 2026 1st
- Grizzlies get: Buddy Hield
- Sign Chris Boucher using TPMLE (one-year, $5.7 million)
- Sign Landry Shamet using partial BAE (one-year, $3.5 million)
- Sign Delon Wright (one-year, minimum salary)
- Sign Javonte Green (one-year, minimum salary)
- Re-sign Pat Spencer (non-guaranteed one-year, minimum salary)
PG: Steph Curry, Delon Wright, Pat Spencer
SG: Brandin Podziemski, Landry Shamet, 41st overall
SF: Jimmy Butler, Moses Moody, Javonte Green
PF: Draymond Green, Chris Boucher, Gui Santos
C: Daniel Gafford, Quinten Post, Trayce Jackson-Davis
It’s no secret that Anthony is a tough fit with the Grizzlies, who already have Ja Morant and Scotty Pippen Jr. as score-first point guards. Enter the Mavericks, who have a glut of big men and are searching for a player to fill in for Kyrie Irving in the starting lineup at the start of the season before shifting to a bench role when Irving returns. Anthony would seem like a solid fit.
The Warriors could take advantage of the situation, offering Hield and a first-round pick for Gafford. The Grizzlies should covet Hield’s shooting to help them replace Bane, while the Mavericks would swap Gafford for Anthony and a future first.
Gafford would be an excellent fit at center for the Warriors, offering a more traditional rim protector and alley-oop threat to pair with Post. He is in the final year of his contract, but should be extendable in the $15-$20 million per year range.
With Hield gone, adding Shamet’s shooting to the bench would make sense for Golden State. The Dubs would presumably hope to lean more heavily on Moody without Hield, but Shamet is a solid veteran shooting guard who has been a consistent three-point shooting threat.
Boucher’s offensive game is erratic and stiff, but he’s become a viable shooter in recent seasons and has always wreaked havoc defensively with his length. In a world where the Warriors do not want to carry four centers on the roster, but are trying to limit Green’s workload, using the TPMLE on a player like Boucher, who is capable of taking on some small-ball five responsibilities, could make a lot of sense.
Scenario 30: Cam Johnson
- Relinquish rights to Jonathan Kuminga
- Trade Moses Moody, Buddy Hield, GS 2026 1st, GS 2028 1st in three-team deal
- Warriors get: Cam Johnson, Dwight Powell (TPE)
- Nets get: Moses Moody, Buddy Hield, GS 2026 1st, GS 2028 1st
- Mavericks get: GS 2032 2nd
- Sign Sam Merrill using TPMLE (one-year, $5.7 million)
- Sign Jeremiah Robinson-Earl using BAE (one-year, $5.1 million)
- Re-sign Kevon Looney (one-year, minimum salary)
- Re-sign Pat Spencer (non-guaranteed one-year, minimum salary)
- Re-sign Braxton Key (non-guaranteed one-year, minimum salary)
PG: Steph Curry, Pat Spencer
SG: Jimmy Butler, Brandin Podziemski, Sam Merrill
SF: Cam Johnson, Braxton Key, 41st overall
PF: Draymond Green, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Gui Santos
C: Quinten Post, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Dwight Powell, Kevon Looney
Johnson has been tied to the Warriors for months now, largely because Dub Nation has coveted swapping Kuminga for the elite shooting wing. The Nets were unable to move Johnson at the deadline, and reportedly wanted multiple first-round picks to get the deal done. Well, the Warriors could offer Moody, Hield, and a pair of first-round picks.
Powell’s $4 million salary makes him a decent candidate to be moved this offseason if Dallas wants to cut their payroll. Despite his limitations, Powell’s shooting makes him a viable rotation piece. If the Warriors cannot land a clear upgrade at center, re-signing Looney and using the team’s trade exception to add Powell could be a fallback option.
One of the few above-average three-point shooting two-guards on the market, Merrill will likely command an offer in the non-taxpayer mid-level exception range, but free agency can be a dice roll for role players. If the limited slots fill up, Merrill could be open to a TPMLE with the Warriors.
Robinson-Earl has been a solid backup power forward from a production standpoint during his four-year career, but has also largely been in losing situations. If the Warriors have a BAE to play with, it might be worth floating a one-year offer to the 24-year old big man to see if he can be unlocked a bit more with a better situation.
Scenario 31: Isaiah Hartenstein
- Relinquish rights to Jonathan Kuminga
- Trade Moses Moody, Buddy Hield, Trayce Jackson-Davis, GS 2026 1st (Top-20 Protected) to Thunder for Isaiah Hartenstein, 44th overall
- Sign Garrison Mathews using TPMLE (one-year, $5.7 million with team option)
- Sign Charles Bassey (one-year, minimum salary)
- Re-sign Gary Payton II (one-year, minimum salary)
- Re-sign Braxton Key (non-guaranteed one-year, minimum salary)
- Re-sign Pat Spencer (non-guaranteed one-year, minimum salary)
PG: Steph Curry, Pat Spencer, 44th overall
SG: Brandin Podziemski, Garrison Mathews
SF: Jimmy Butler, Braxton Key, 41st overall
PF: Draymond Green, Gui Santos, Gary Payton II
C: Isaiah Hartenstein, Quinten Post, Charles Bassey
It’s fair to wonder whether the Thunder would trade one of their starters immediately after winning a championship. Oklahoma City is still at least a season away from any real luxury tax crunch, but Sam Presti is always thinking ahead. Hartenstein was a great regular season addition, but his role steadily declined in the playoffs and he’s due $28.5 million next season with a club option for another year after it.
Lu Dort was long viewed as the piece most likely to be traded when Oklahoma City faces a salary crunch, but he feels like a more pivotal core piece moving forward. Would the Thunder be willing to bet on expanded roles for Chet Holmgren, Kenrich Williams, and Jaylin Williams? Even if not, they have their bevy of draft capital to acquire a cheaper veteran center.
The Warriors would have to consider parting with Moody, Hield, Jackson-Davis and a protected first-round pick for Hartenstein. The Thunder would likely be searching for third and fourth teams to redirect those players for other deals. Nevertheless, it would set the stage to cut around $7 million in salary next season and pre-empt some long-term cap conundrums.
Mathews is one of the purest shooters on the free agent market and will likely command a deal in the partial TPMLE/BAE range. If the Warriors trade Hield, Mathews remains an obvious replacement for outside shooting.