The Wolves have seemingly every circumstantial advantage, but the Warriors still match up well.
The Golden State Warriors are facing the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Semifinals. After defeating the two-seed Houston Rockets in the first round of the NBA Playoffs, the Dubs are consensus underdogs against the Wolves. On the surface, It’s easy to see why.
The Wolves finished the regular season on a scorching 17-4 run before a commanding 4-1 series victory over the three-seed Los Angeles Lakers. Meanwhile, the Warriors hot streak after acquiring Jimmy Butler faded. They lost three out of their final five regular-season games and have had to play a grueling play-in tournament game followed by a seven-game series.
Minnesota, who also has home-court advantage in the series, has had ample time to rest and prepare while Golden State has just one day between Game 7 in the first round and Game 1 of the West Semis.
Oh, and Warriors defensive anchor Draymond Green is already more than halfway to incurring a suspension from either technical or flagrant foul points. There’s a very real chance he will be suspended for one or two games in the series even if he avoids a particularly egregious outburst.
Yet, the more I looked into this matchup, the stronger my belief that Golden State has a massive on-court advantage. If they have enough energy left in the tank, which admittedly may prove to be my miscalculation, the Warriors should be able to use several key advantages to advance to the Conference Finals.
4 reasons I expect the Warriors to upset the Timberwolves
1. The Wolves hot finish to the regular season came against weak competition
It’s easy to look at that 17-4 regular-season finish as evidence that the Wolves figured something out down the stretch of the season. After trading Karl-Anthony Towns last offseason, and dealing with injuries throughout the year, it narratively makes sense that Minnesota finally figured out how to play with Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo.
But I’m not so sure.
It just so happens that Minnesota looked to be in disarray in February, when they played the majority of their games against eventual playoff teams that won at least 48 games in the regular season. Then, they surged just as their opponents became significantly weaker.
From the start of March to the end of the regular season, the Wolves were 6-3 against eventual playoff teams. Three of those victories came against Eastern Conference teams that would finish the regular season with fewer than 45 victories (Pistons, Magic, and Heat). If you look at the remaining playoff opponents, the Wolves had two wins against the Nuggets, a victory against a flailing Grizzlies in the last game of the season, two losses to the Pacers, and a loss to the Bucks.
In other words, even as they surged in the standings, usurping the Dubs, the Wolves continued failing to separate themselves against top competition. Minnesota is a legitimate contender, and is clearly among the group of good, but flawed teams behind the Thunder in the West. But I’m not convinced they’ve actually “figured things out.”
4 reasons I expect the Warriors to upset the Timberwolves
2. The Lakers were a uniquely easy matchup for Minnesota
The Wolves have more than the regular season on their resume now. The team’s stock surged after eliminating the Lakers in just five games. However, the Lakers were both a uniquely flawed Western Conference team and the ideal matchup for a squad built to slow down ball-dominant stars like Luka Dončić and LeBron James.
Prior to the first-round matchup, Dončić had consistently struggled against Anthony Edwards’ Timberwolves in the regular season. Among his NBA opponents, Dončić has his second-lowest field goal percentage (43.1%), worst three-point percentage (28.1%), and lowest scoring average (23.9 PPG) against the Wolves. Yes, Luka destroyed Minnesota in last year’s Western Conference Finals, but Edwards openly admitted he was gassed by that point in the season.
James had similarly shown a dip in scoring (23.2 PPG) and three-point shooting (29.9%) vs. Edwards’ teams since the young wing entered the league. It’s easy to see why. The Wolves defense is built around switchable, long, athletic, perimeter wing defenders who force players off the three-point line and toward an elite rim protector inside (Gobert).
On top of that, the Lakers had some of the most glaring roster holes among playoff teams and a rookie head coach who was clearly overwhelmed by the moment. The Wolves deserve credit for taking care of business. However, a media apparatus that underrated the Lakers’ vulnerability seems to have simply credited Minnesota for slaying a giant without recognizing Los Angeles’ clear flaws.
4 reasons the Warriors will upset the Timberwolves
3. The Warriors have the depth to limit Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert
No two players turned their playoff reputations around more in the first round than Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert. After several ugly playoff showings with the Knicks, Randle had an excellent all-around series against the Lakers, averaging 22.6 points per game on 48.1%/39.3%/83.9% shooting. Gobert, on the other hand, mired by years of playoff struggles, had 27 points and 24 rebounds in the series-clinching Game 5.
Both Randle and Gobert deserve credit for their showings. However, it’s important to contextualize the frontcourt (or lackthereof) they faced in Los Angeles. The Lakers only had two centers play any rotation minutes in the series. Jaxson Hayes saw 31 minutes of action. Maxi Kleber played just five minutes.
Golden State may be undersized like the Lakers, but Draymond Green, Kevon Looney, and Quinten Post all fit various Warriors lineups better than any big man did with the Lakers. Another buried Warriors big, Trayce Jackson-Davis, averaged 7.3 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks in just over 21 minutes per game alongside a positive plus/minus against the Wolves this season as well.
Warriors head coach Steve Kerr will have plenty of options to deploy in an effort to slow down Gobert and Randle if either are causing problems. Whether Randle is guarded by Green or not, Green’s presence alone will make things far more difficult than they were against the Lakers. It remains to be seen if Randle can be an impactful playoff scorer against a team with an elite interior defender.
Gobert, on the other hand, only had one dominant game in the first-round series. Even with his size advantage, he had amassed just 14 points and 25 rebounds across the first four games of the series. It was only when the Lakers decided to fully ignore him that he was able to dominate.
If Randle and Gobert both regress to their previous playoff reputations, Wolves head coach Chris Finch will be forced to go small and play the Warriors way. Minnesota will still have a budding superstar in Anthony Edwards to lean on, but Golden State has rarely fallen to a one-dimensional offensive opponent in the playoffs.
Green’s unique defensive mastermind enables the Warriors to deploy a variety of tactics to slow down an opponent’s best offensive player. Now that Green has a similarly adept wing defender in Butler, Kerr should have the pieces to find a defensive scheme that can contain Edwards and the Wolves outside shooting if Randle and Gobert are unable to punish Golden State inside.
4 reasons I expect the Warriors to upset the Timberwolves
4. The Warriors offense attacks Minnesota’s biggest defensive weakness
The Wolves have a very good defense. They even have some players with similar archetypes to the Rockets, who have stifled Golden State as well as anyone in recent memory. On top of that, the Wolves are simply more talented than the Rockets up and down the roster.
So, how do the Warriors stand a chance?
Well, Minnesota’s biggest defensive weakness (and one of Houston’s biggest defensive strengths) leaves the Wolves especially prone to the Dubs’ offensive attack.
Nothing gave Minnesota’s defense more problems than off-ball screens this year. The Wolves allowed the 1.04 points per possession (PPP) on shots following off-ball screens, the sixth-worst rate in the league. In fact, they had surrendered the fourth-most total points in the league on off-ball actions. The Rockets, by contrast, allowed just 0.88 PPP (third-best in the league) and had surrendered the fifth-fewest total points in the league on those shots.
While the Lakers (1.07 PPP, sixth-best) and Warriors (1.05 PPP, seventh-best) were similarly efficient shooting off of off-ball screens, Golden State averaged a league-high 8.7 shots per game on such actions, more than double the Lakers volume (3.8 shots per game).
The Warriors 3-1 record against the Wolves in the regular season has understandably been largely ignored in previewing this series. Minnesota never faced Jimmy Butler and played against a revolving door of Warriors lineups, none of which are like what they will face in this series. That said, the Wolves did not have any significant absences in their match ups against the Warriors. Minnesota had their entire rotation, which actually could offer some insights into their defensive holes.
In the Warriors regular-season games against the Wolves, they averaged 35.8 three-point attempts per game that were either classified as open (4-6 feet of space) or wide open (6+ feet of space). By contrast, the Warriors had managed just 30.2 such shots per game against the Rockets in the regular season.
Most concerning for Minnesota, the Rockets had already shown an aptitude to forcing open shots away from Golden State’s biggest threats. Curry (3.9), former Warrior Andrew Wiggins (3.7), Brandin Podziemski (2.0), Buddy Hield (0.1), and Moses Moody (2.9)—the Warriors that made at least 37% of their three-point attempts this season—all averaged more open or
Meanwhile, the Rockets had allowed the less dangerous shooters (Green, Kuminga, and Payton) noticeably more wide open looks. A lot has changed since the Warriors last played the Timberwolves, but it’s easy to foresee the Warriors finding it comparatively easy to generate open looks for their best shooters, particularly Curry, after facing Houston.
wide open three-point attempts per 36 minutes against the Wolves than the Rockets.
It’s no coincidence that Curry (28.8 PPG, 45.8% 3PT%) and Hield (15.0 PPG, 44.8% 3PT%) were particularly effective against the Wolves this season. They were able to do that while Wiggins and Kuminga were the top wing scoring threats (Wiggins and Kuminga were a combined 36.4% from the field and 28.6% from three against the Wolves). Now that role will be filled by a far more apt scorer in Butler.
Ironically, the newest Warrior has the biggest uphill battle against the Wolves defense. Butler’s offensive game is largely ball-dominant and relies on driving and kicking, like James and Dončić, but that will still require more defensive attention than either Kuminga or Wiggins received. Butler’s presence should only make it easier for Golden State to get their best shooters open looks.
And if Steph Curry is going to be able to get open looks, it’s hard to see the Warriors as an underdog.
If the circumstances were more evenly matched, I’d pick the Warriors to win the series in five games. However, with just one day of rest between matchups for the first five games, and a Draymond suspension highly foreseeable, it will be an uphill battle. I expect Golden State to win two of the first five games, which will give both teams three days off prior to Game 6 in the Bay. I expect the Warriors to win a Game 7 on the road for the second-straight series.