Jonathan Kuminga and the Golden State Warriors are entering a pivotal moment.
The stakes couldn’t be higher for both parties. With several days left until training camp, both sides would love to get a resolution for the contract situation. A lottery pick in 2021, Kuminga’s the most prominent asset from the two-timeline strategy. When the Warriors drafted him, they hoped he could grow into a player who would take the lead as two-time NBA MVP Stephen Curry ages.
Best-Case & Worst-Case Warriors-Jonathan Kuminga Scenarios
What happens in the next several days can very well define both the franchise and the player. With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of the best-case and worst-case scenarios.
Warriors’ Best-Case Scenario
For the Warriors, the best-case scenario is that they strike a fair contract extension, get Kuminga to fully buy into his role, and secure him for the foreseeable future. If he improves, there’s a chance they could flip him for an established star that provides immediate help. Or, they can keep him and hope he can carry the torch when their franchise cornerstones retire.
In either scenario, his growth could ease Curry’s burden and ease Golden State’s transition into a new era. Furthermore, with a focused Kuminga, the Warriors can regain their cohesion and prevent drama in the locker room. This will make it easier to focus on the goal of winning another championship.
However, if they lose Kuminga for nothing, their impending rebuild becomes more challenging. Yes, the Warriors might have plenty of cap space in the summer of 2027. Yet, cap space is never guaranteed to deliver great players.
Warriors’ Worst-Case Scenario
The worst-case scenario for Kuminga and the Warriors is that he feels undervalued and signs the one-year qualifying offer. That would essentially make him an untradeable asset.
Despite the typical appeal of an expiring contract, it’s likely that he’ll leave next summer as a free agent. This could be unfavorable for the Warriors because other teams may be wary of negotiating with him next summer and there can be punitive costs of acquiring players in a sign-and-trade. Furthermore, he’s intrigued by the possibility of joining the Sacramento Kings, and other suitors may see him signing with him as an inevitability.
Without a young player of Kuminga’s caliber, the Warriors wouldn’t be able to make an attractive trade offer for players like Utah Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen. In the end, they’ll lose a top-10 draft pick for nothing. Situations like that can set franchises back for years.
Another worst-case scenario is they bend to his demands (which doesn’t seem likely), and he doesn’t develop into a star, making his contract an overpay.
It seems like the Warriors’ strategy with Kuminga, develop him and try to trade him, has finally backfired.
Jonathan Kuminga’s Best-Case Scenario
The best-case scenario for Kuminga is that he agrees a contract that lets him dictate his future.
Right now, the hold-up in negotiations comes down to the Warriors not wanting to budge on inserting a team option in the final year of his contract. Kuminga wants Golden State to give him a player option in the final year. If his wishes are granted, he’ll have two years to show his worth, and then he’ll have the option of re-entering free agency while still under 25 years of age.
As Kuminga’s averaging 15.8 points per game over the past two seasons, there’s no reason that he can’t out up 15-18 points per game until his next contract expires. With his physical tools and finishing ability, he could get half of those points on cuts and in transition. In a numbers game, that could make the Warriors (or another team) view him as a rising star, allowing him to sign a richer contract the next go-around.
Jonathan Kuminga’s Worst-Case Scenario
Imagine Kuminga enters the season frustrated due to his contract, and then suffers an injury. That would cripple his potential to get a wealthier contract next summer. The history of the NBA is full of players who refused a contract and guaranteed money, only to regret it next season.
Really, signing a qualifying offer is already a worst-case scenario for him. If he sustains a significant injury, especially while on a one-year deal, the Warriors might decide to lowball him in their next round of negotiations. Or, they could glue him to the bench.
Why would they play and develop someone who they know for sure is leaving next summer anyways?
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