With the Warriors season over, it’s worth asking, can Golden State make a real play for Giannis Antetokounmpo?
The Golden State Warriors season is over. After failing to escape the Western Conference Semifinals, general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. enters the offseason trying to build a team that can help Steph Curry win his fifth career NBA title. After ESPN’s Shams Charania reported that Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo is considering whether he wants to leave Milwaukee earlier this week, every front office has to be evaluating a potential path to acquiring the two-time MVP.
While Antetokounmpo is rumored to be eyeing an Eastern Conference landing spot in a state with no income tax (which would leave the Magic and Heat as his only options), Golden State has reason to believe he’d be open to a union. Antetokounmpo’s longstanding friendship with Steph Curry has led to speculation for years about the Warriors uniting the two superstars.
So If a Giannis trade is on the horizon, can the Dubs offer the Bucks enough to get it done?
Before diving into the specifics, it’s worth clarifying the draft pick capital the Warriors can offer. Assuming a deal is made after the draft, Golden State can trade three unprotected first-round picks (2026, 2028, and 2031*). While some ancillary swaps and second-round picks could be added, a Giannis trade will most likely require a haul of picks that includes at least two unprotected first rounders.
*The Warriors technically cannot trade their 2031 first-round pick because it is possible they will send their 2030 first-round pick to the Wizards from the Chris Paul trade. Nevertheless, this would turn into an unprotected 2032 first in that scenario.
It’s important to note that draft picks have no way of carrying the Warriors to victory in a Giannis sweepstakes. Teams like the Rockets, Nets, Thunder, and Spurs all have astronomical amounts of draft capital. Dozens of other teams have a better package of picks to offer than Golden State.
A scenario where the Dubs finally pair Antetokounmpo with Curry will likely require a combination of several factors; Giannis would have to be interested in joining the Warriors, the Bucks would have to be willing to let him exert some preference over the process, and Milwaukee’s front office would need to have high opinions of several Warriors.
With so many big names expected to be on the trade block this offseason, deals will likely get complicated very quickly. There’s a world where the Warriors and Bucks become a part of a massive four-team sign-and-trade sends Kuminga to Milwaukee, Jimmy Butler to the Suns, and Kevin Durant to the Heat. There are several other blockbuster iterations theoretically in play, but for the sake of this primer, let’s focus on a straightforward two team deal.
First off, the Warriors cannot acquire Antetokounmpo’s max contract while retaining Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green. So, since Curry’s not going anywhere, it stands to reason that Butler or Green would be heading to the Bucks.
Milwaukee could want to redirect either veteran All-Star to a third team for more young pieces, but that seems unlikely. Neither Butler nor Green are valuable enough to recoup a massive haul in a trade. Since the Bucks do not have control of their upcoming first-round picks, they are not in a position where tanking seems beneficial. In fact, that’s one thing that could work in the Warriors favor, given their collection of young prospects and proven veterans.
Obviously the Warriors would presumably center Giannis talks around Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski. Kuminga is going to be a restricted free agent and will likely sign a four-year deal with an average annual value in the $20-$30 million range. Still only 22, Kuminga’s production has steadily improved throughout his career and he has continued to flash All-Star potential. While he was removed from the Dubs rotation heading into the playoffs, he performed exceptionally in the Western Conference Semifinals. If the Bucks are looking for another wing to build their franchise around in a Giannis trade, Kuminga could be one of their best options.
Podziemski has already proven to be a valuable role player in Golden State, becoming the team’s starting shooting guard for most of his first two seasons. A well-rounded contributor, Podziemski has flashed the offensive potential to be something more at times too. With Damian Lillard out for all of next season, the Bucks could potentially slot Podziemski in at point guard next year before sliding him back to the two when Lillard returns.
So, with those two settled as young centerpieces, let’s get into some deals.
Jonathan Kuminga*, Draymond Green, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, and a draft pick haul for Giannis Antetokounmpo
This is the only semi-realistic path for the Warriors to head into next season with a trio of Curry, Antetokounmpo, and Butler. The Warriors would need to unload Buddy Hield’s contract, but that shouldn’t be a problem given his impressive postseason. Still, Golden State would effectively have just $21.6 million to spread across their final 8 roster spots. It would be the most top-heavy “Big Three” roster since LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh first teamed up with the Heat.
Is that still a viable path to a championship in the stacked Western Conference?
For Milwaukee, Green has still proven capable of anchoring an elite defense even as he ages. Moreover, with two years remaining on his contract, the Bucks have control of Draymond in the near future without having to worry about a massive albatross.
Despite Moody’s struggles this postseason, he is still a young former lottery pick wing under contract for less than $15 million per season that was a solid starter on a playoff team. Even with an array of young guards in Milwaukee, Moody would have a strong case for a starting spot. If the Bucks prefer their internal options, then Moody could be swapped to a third team for either a big or point guard that’s a better fit on the roster. Nevertheless, he is another young controllable piece that would improve their depth.
Still, this deal seems like a lose-lose for both sides. The Warriors roster would be exceedingly thin and the Bucks would probably be looking at a 30-35 win team. Even in the abysmal Eastern Conference, that probably falls short of the playoffs.
*Kuminga would need to receive a deal with a first-year cap figure of less than $30.4 million
Jimmy Butler, Jonathan Kuminga*, Moses Moody, Brandin Podziemski, and a draft pick haul for Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bobby Portis**, and Pat Connaughton***
It’s easier to see the Bucks remaining competitive if they add Butler. In this deal, the Bucks would pair the aging do-it-all Butler with the young Kuminga who is more than happy to shoulder the scoring load. After Curry’s injury in the playoffs, Kuminga and Butler seemed to figure out how to play off each other well in the Western Conference Semifinals.
No one would confuse this Bucks roster for a title contender, but assuming they solidify their front court depth in free agency they would probably be expected to reach the play-in tournament with a shot at a top-six seed if Kuminga takes a step forward.
If I were the Bucks, I’d insist on sending Kyle Kuzma to the Dubs instead of Portis and Connaughton. However, the Milwaukee front office just traded franchise icon Khris Middleton and a future first-round pick swap for Kuzma a few months ago. I imagine that would lead them to prefer retaining Kuzma unless the return was more sizable.
The Warriors would be cashing in most of their chips, but would still have enough veteran depth to foresee a championship path. They would immediately have a starting lineup of Curry, Hield, Giannis, Green, and Portis with a mid-level exception at their disposal to add another prominent bench piece to team with Connaughton, Quinten Post, Trayce Jackson-Davis, and Gui Santos.
Antetokounmpo and Green will be an awkward fit offensively, but the Dubs would have the shooting to offset issues of spacing. Moreover, Draymond and Giannis would immediately become the best defensive duo in the league. Nothing could be guaranteed in the stacked Western Conference, but assuming general manager Mike Duneavy Jr. filled out the roster with complimentary veteran pieces, they would head into next season as a favorite to be a top-three seed in the West.
*Kuminga would need to receive a deal with a first-year cap figure of less than $30.6 million
**Portis has a $13.4 million player option and it remains a toss-up as to whether he will exercise it or not. I believe the Warriors could entice him to opt-in by offering him a starting spot and potentially even a small extension.
***Connaughton has a $9.4 million player option. Given his small role this past season, he is seems like a lock to opt in.
It is technically possible for the Warriors to offer just one of Green or Butler without Kuminga, instead using some combination of Moody, Podziemski, Post, and Buddy Hield to fill in the offer. However, even in a post-Luka Dončić trade world those hypothetical offers still seem exceptionally light on upside.
If neither of those deals are enough to get it done, Golden State has the option to up the ante one more time.
Jimmy Butler, Jonathan Kuminga*, Draymond Green, Brandin Podziemski, and a draft pick haul for Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kyle Kuzma, and Bobby Portis
If you told me that the Warriors are going to acquire Antetokounmpo this offseason, this is the framework of a trade I find most plausible. It requires the Warriors ending Curry’s tenure alongside Green and parting with Butler as well, but that’s a price worth paying for a top-five player in the NBA.
Given the abysmal state of the Eastern Conference, the Bucks might not be too afraid of adding two aging All-Stars with only two years left on their contracts. For Milwaukee, this deal would immediately give them a sturdy wing core comprised of Butler, Kuminga, and Green.
Butler and Green have anchored the best defense in the NBA since the trade deadline, and there’s no reason to believe they could not carry that success over to the Bucks. Incredibly smart players, Butler and Green’s biggest weakness is scoring, but that’s the one place where Kuminga has thrived most. Moreover, while it may not be wise to bet on Lillard’s return, there’s a world where he forms a dynamic 1-2 offensive punch with Kuminga to make the Bucks an exciting team to watch in 2026-27.
The Warriors would be back to just two stars, but would have more remaining role players to make up for it. They could surround Antetokounmpo with the best shooting lineup of his career, potentially starting The Greek Freak alongside Curry, Hield, Moody, and Portis. They would also still have the mid-level exception to supplement a bench unit that would have Kuzma, Post, Santos, and Jackson-Davis.
*Kuminga would need to receive a deal with a first-year cap figure of less than $32.7 million
Of course, all of these options are only on the table if Kuminga plays along.
If the Brooklyn Nets make Kuminga a max offer or he simply has no interest in Milwaukee, a sign-and-trade to the Bucks comes off the table. If that’s the case, a trade for Giannis becomes significantly harder to envision.
The Warriors best offer would be Butler, Green, Moody, Hield, Podziemski, Post, and a draft pick haul. Five of those players might be good enough to immediately comprise the Bucks starting lineup, possibly leading the team to the playoffs (probably via the play-in). However, with Butler and Green only getting older, it’s hard to imagine the upside of Podizemski or Moody enticing the Bucks.
Do the Warriors have a chance to acquire Giannis Antetokounmpo?
It remains uncertain what teams will be viable players in a trade sweepstakes for Giannis. The San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets, Miami Heat, Orlando Magic, Memphis Grizzlies, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Brooklyn Nets all seem like potential competitors in a bidding war. It will come down to threading a needle between both Antetokounmpo and the Bucks front office’s priorities.
The Warriors have a big brand market and a superstar with a longstanding connection to Antetokounmpo. It stands to reason that should be enough to at least get Golden State on a shortlist for the Bucks to consider their offers.
If the Warriors get to that point, they can offer Milwaukee immediate veteran stability to potentially remain a playoff team (Butler & Green), young prospects who already contribute with the upside to develop into foundational franchise pieces (Kuminga & Podziemski), and a trio of first-round picks to continue adding young talent in the future.
Would that be enough? Only time will tell. But there’s no doubt that Joe Lacob and Mike Dunleavy Jr. are surely going to try.