Could the Warriors shock the NBA and trade for LeBron James?

Will it happen? Probably not. But it’s worth talking about.

If there’s one thing we know about the Golden State Warriors in the 15 years that Joe Lacob has owned the team, it’s that they love to make a splash. Since signing Kevin Durant in a bold, chest-puffing manner, the Dubs have been relentless in their pursuit of splashy, franchise-altering moves.

When the time came for Durant to leave, the Warriors absorbed a pricy D’Angelo Russell contract to maintain a max-level salary spot that could potentially be traded for a star. After detouring through Andrew Wiggins, that salary spot finally landed on Jimmy Butler III in February. But before that deal was finalized, the Warriors had a trade set up to re-acquire Durant, which only fell through when the team realized how passionately the future Hall of Famer felt about not reuniting with his former team. A year prior, they made a call to the Los Angeles Lakers, inquiring about LeBron James’ availability, then tried again this year. They pushed hard for Paul George last offseason. They’ve been linked to Giannis Antetokounmpo too many times to remember, seemingly waiting for the other shoe to drop in Milwaukee so that they can swoop in.

The Warriors are big game hunting. They’re openly big game hunting. And they’re not going to stop.

Which means we need to talk about LeBron again.

It’s still unlikely that James ever suits up for the home team at Chase Center, but it’s less unlikely today than at perhaps any other point. James’ future with the Lakers suddenly appears in at least a modicum of doubt. He picked up his player option for the upcoming season — an obvious move, given the financial element — but otherwise appears to be stalling out.

ESPN’s Brian Windhorst, who has covered James’ career more closely than any other reporter, said recently that the four-time MVP’s time with the Lakers “is beginning to come to an end,” and that sides are “beginning to move apart.”

“The Lakers and LeBron did not have substantive discussions about extending his contract, which every team LeBron’s been on for 20-something years has wanted to have substantive conversations about,” Windhorst said on ESPN’s First Take, while also admitting that James staying put is the most likely scenario. “And what happens to expiring contracts in the NBA? They’re viewed as trade pieces.”

Other reports have said similar things; hell, James’ team — his circle, not the Lakers — has said similar things. When James picked up his option earlier this offseason, his agent Rich Paul told The Athletic that “LeBron knows the Lakers are building for the future, and he also wants to compete for championships. We understand the difficulty in winning now while preparing for the future. We do want to evaluate what’s best for LeBron at this stage in his life and career.”

James essentially controls his future. He has the sway — and the trade value — to force his way out of Los Angeles should he choose to. And as one of just two players in the NBA with a full no-trade clause, he can essentially pick his next home, if it comes to that.

We know the Warriors want to make a splash. We know the Warriors have tried to acquire James in the past. So could it actually happen this time? Let’s examine the three questions that — along with whether or not James decides that his future isn’t in the purple and gold — will determine whether LeBron actually has a chance at ending up in the Bay.

Would he want to play for the Warriors?

It’s a nearly impossible question to answer, but there are plenty of signs pointing towards “yes.” James has spoken openly and frequently about his respect and adoration for Steph Curry, and is overtly giddy every time he gets to share the court with him, whether as an opponent, an All-Star teammate, or an Olympics co-star. He’s close friends with Draymond Green, with the two sharing an agent, sharing a tequila company, and even vacationing together. And he’s spoken at length about his respect for both Steve Kerr and the system that the Warriors run; plus, he’s experienced playing for Kerr in the Olympics, and seemed to enjoy it.

And then, of course, there’s the most important part: he’d be on a contender if he joined the Warriors. If James is to leave the Lakers, it’s because he’s in search of a team prioritizing winning this year over sustained winning down the road, and if that doesn’t describe the Dubs, I don’t know what does.

But there are reasons to be skeptical about whether James would actually consider the Warriors. The primary reason is that this is Curry’s team, and nothing is going to change that. LeBron is at an age and stage of his career where he knows that he may not be the best player on a championship team anymore — something he essentially admitted when passing the torch to Anthony Davis and saying the Lakers were his team.

Yet you can fill that role while still being the most popular player on the team. If James were to follow Davis to Dallas, where he’d also reunite with former championship teammate Kyrie Irving, while joining rookie phenom Cooper Flagg, he’d create a championship contender in which he was the biggest name. If he returned home to Cleveland for a third stint, he’d compete for a ring while being the face of the franchise, even if he’s not the most important player.

He can’t have that in Golden State. Is he ready to not be introduced last? Is he ready to not get the loudest ovation from the home crowd? Is he ready to be Curry’s teammate on Curry’s team, and not just a co-star deferring on equal footing? Only he can answer that question.

Would he fit on the Warriors?

Yes. A million times yes. Easiest yes imaginable.

James is arguably the most intelligent player in the NBA — arguably the most intelligent player the game has ever seen — and that always works with a Kerr system. His combination of size, length, and athleticism, mixed with his passing ability, would allow Kerr to build a plethora of different lineups and rotations. His playmaking would let Curry play off-ball, and his willingness to pass would make sure that Curry stays well-fed. He’s not a great defender anymore, but he’s a smart and at-times active one who could fill multiple defensive roles for the Dubs. And his relationship with Curry and Green would ensure that there’s no awkward star drama. Plus, he’s shot 39.3% from three-point range over the last two seasons.

It’s hard to built a player better suited to the Warriors’ systems, especially at this stage in Curry’s career.

Would the Warriors actually want him, at the price that he’ll cost?

After reading the last two sections, you might think this one is a slam dunk “yes” but … I’m not so sure. So let’s start with the latter half of the question: the cost.

Any James trade would almost certainly be centered around a swap with Jimmy Butler III; in fact, LeBron and his son Bronny James have a combined salary that’s less than $500,000 off of what Butler’s salary is, so the finances work fairly seamlessly. The Dubs could also, in theory, build a package around Green, but not only is that far more difficult, I’d assume that part of the allure of Golden State for picking Golden State would be Draymond. So let’s assume that Butler is the choice.

If I had to guess, a potential trade would be Butler and a pair of first-round picks for the James family duo.

Setting aside the first-round picks — which are becoming more and more important as we near the end of Curry’s career — it’s fair to question whether the Warriors would even want to swap Butler for James. The Dubs saw firsthand last year just how seamless the fit with Butler was. It worked brilliantly on the court and beautifully off it. He may not be as good of a player as James, but the defensive excellence and gritty mentality were just what the doctor ordered for Golden State.

He’s also under contract for two more years, while James seems to be taking life one year at a time as he ponders an eventual retirement.

Ultimately, the continuity may win out. With Butler, the Warriors have a chance to build on a proven model: they went 24-8 after Butler debuted, and, before Curry got injured, looked likely to cruise into the Western Conference Finals. This is their chance to add, rather than to restructure. That might be what matters most.

But then again, Lacob’s big game hunting hat might be the deciding factor.