The vibes are good in Golden State. So where should that take them in the near future?
The Golden State Warriors have found new life since acquiring Jimmy Butler at the NBA trade deadline. After flailing in mediocrity for multiple months, the Dubs have showcased a resurgent confidence amidst a 5-1 start to Butler’s tenure. Now 31-27 on the season, they are in the middle of a tight race for the middle and back end seeds in the Western Conference postseason.
Now that Golden State looks revitalized, high expectations are back. The Warriors are heading into a five-game road trip that will send them across the East Coast, but feature just one opponent with an above .500 record. So if they keep rolling, what should Dub Nation expect from them?
The Warriors road trip
Game 1: Orlando Magic
The Magic are easily the second-best opponent the Warriors will face on this road trip, which speaks to the weak competition. The Magic have not found the firepower to build a consistent offense, and given the Warriors recent defensive dominance, that’s a particularly tough matchup. If the Warriors played Orlando later in the trip, it might be a bigger challenge, but this should be a victory if the Dubs are truly back as conference contenders.
Expectation: Win
Game 2: Philadelphia 76ers
There’s a different universe where the Sixers are a top contender in the Eastern Conference and this matchup creates some interesting fodder for Paul George what ifs. Instead, Joel Embiid is likely out for the season and a top-six protected 2025 first-round pick seems to incentivize Philadelphia to embrace a full-blown tank. With a day of rest after stopping in Orlando, the Warriors should easily take care of business.
Expectation: Win
Game 3: Charlotte Hornets
The Warriors just beat the Hornets by 36 at home and will have a day of rest before the game. This should be the easiest game of the trip.
Expectation: Win
Game 4: New York Knicks
The Knicks are by the toughest opponent of the trip and the Warriors are facing them on the second half of a back-to-back. This could be an obvious opportunity to rest some vets. Or, if they’re cocky, perhaps another vet will rest the day before against the Hornets. However, it’s hard to imagine Curry laying an egg at Madison Square Garden and this also sets up Butler for a rematch against his former teammate Karl-Anthony Towns. The Knicks will be heavy favorites, but the Warriors will really turn some heads if they can pull this one out.
Expectation: Loss
Game 5: Brooklyn Nets (21-36)
The final game of the trip is the clearest trap game. The Warriors have a day off in New York after the Knicks game before facing the Nets. The Nets are far less intimidating than the Knicks, and if Golden State does get a win in Madison Square Garden, this could turn into a letdown. Nevertheless, they should be expected to take care of business.
Expectation: Win
Of course, it’s possible that the Warriors could go 3-2 (or worse) over this road trip, but this exercise is focused on how high the team can climb in the standings if they truly are reemerging as Western Conference contenders. Despite the current sky high morale, multiple losses on this road trip should raise serious questions about whether this Golden State squad is truly multiple tiers above what they were prior to the deal.
No one denies that the Warriors improved after adding Butler, but the question is whether they marginally improved their chances of winning a game or two in the play-in tournament or are prepared to do serious damage in the postseason.
Best for GS: 5-0 (36-27)
Expectation: 4-1 (35-28)
The Warriors will return home to host the Detroit Pistons on March 8th. So, let’s take a look at how the schedules of the teams they are chasing in the standings through March 7th.
NOTE: While the Kings and Suns technically have a path to catch the Warriors in the standings. However, they seem to be a tier below the other contenders for seeds 6-10. And again, since this is focused on how far the Warriors can climb if they’re back, teams that are behind them in the standings should not be able to catch them.
vs. Timberwolves (W)
vs. Clippers (L)
vs. Clippers (W)
vs. Pelicans (W)
vs. Knicks (W)
home/away. Opponent (Predicted outcome)
Bold denotes competitive matchup (predictions will be changed to most favorable for Warriors in “Best for GS” scenario)
* denotes back-to-back
The Lakers are currently leading the middle of the Western Conference standings, and the acquisition of Luka Dončić should only make it easier for them to hold onto that spot. The Lakers have several games coming against teams closer to the Warriors in the standings, which puts the Dubs in a pretty good scenario. Assuming the Lakers can capitalize on a long homestand against the Mavs, Wolves, and Clippers, the Dubs will have a clear path to jump that trio of teams. That said, even if the Lakers falter, they would fall back in the standings and could end up within striking distance of a surging Golden State.
Predicted record entering 3/8:
Best for GS: 39-22 (GS 4 GB)
Expectation: 39-22 (GS 5 GB)
vs. Spurs* (W)
vs. Kings (W)
@ Thunder (L)
@ Pacers* (L)
@ Pelicans (W)
The Rockets seemed to be in a bit of a free fall heading into the All-Star break and have been incredibly erratic recently. Still, they bounced back from a loss to the Jazz with a win against the Bucks.Houston is a young team and that could mean they are running out of gas, which would be a game changer for this portion of the standings. However, let’s assume they are just dealing with youthful inconsistency. They have two back-to-backs and a road game against the Thunder in their next five games. Even with a solid overall showing, the Warriors are still well positioned to get within striking distance. If the Rockets are upset by San Antonio or Sacramento, it could get even better.
Best for GS: 39-24 (GS 3 GB)
Expectation: 39-24 (GS 4 GB)
6. Los Angeles Clippers
@ Bulls (W)
@ Lakers (W)
@ Lakers (L)
@ Suns (W)
vs. Pistons* (L)
vs. Knicks (W)
Best for GS: 33-30 (3 GB of GS)
Expectation: 35-28 (tied w/GS)
@ Lakers (L)
@ Jazz* (W)
@ Suns (W)
vs. 76ers (W)
@ Hornets* (W)
@ Heat (W)
The Timberwolves impressive comeback win over the Thunder on Monday night made it far harder for Golden State to usurp them in the standings on their upcoming road trip. While the Wolves have a hefty slate of upcoming road games, they are facing a series of weak opponents. It’s worth noting that they do have a pair of back-to-backs leading into extremely weak opponents that could turn into trap games. Nevertheless, the Warriors should be expecting the Wolves to take care of business. If they trip themselves, that’s found money.
Best for GS: 37-28 (tied w/GS)
Expectation: 37-28 (GS 1 GB)
vs Hornets (W)
vs Bucks (L)
vs Kings (W)
@ Bucks (W)
vs Grizzlies (L)
The Warriors could very well end up being haunted by their blown lead against the Mavericks post-deadline. Not only is that the team’s only loss in the post-Butler era so far, but it also would have allowed them to jump Dallas in the standings prior to the All-Star break and possibly depleted the team’s morale following Anthony Davis’ injury. Instead, the Mavs have hung around and should welcome some big man reinforcements back soon. Still, the odds are stacked against Dallas. Partially in terms of talent, but also the schedule. They will need to pull off some upsets in the coming week (or see Golden State really fumble) to avoid falling behind the Dubs.
Best for GS: 33-31 (3.5 GB of GS)
Expectation: 34-30 (1.5 GB of GS)
Warriors best-case scenario Western Conference standings entering 3/8:
4. Lakers (39-22)
5. Rockets (39-24)
t-6. Wolves (37-28)
t-6. Warriors (36-27)
8. Clippers (33-30)
9. Mavericks (33-31)
It’s worth noting that this is aimed at a “within reason” best-case scenario. As previously mentioned, the Rockets and Wolves both face some weak opponents on short rest. It’s possible for the Warriors to have the six-seed to themself if the chips fall that way as well. Still, it’s important to remember that this is already assuming the Warriors go 5-0 on their road trip and see the Clippers, Mavericks, and Wolves lose to the Lakers.
Expected Western Conference standings entering 3/8:
4. Lakers (39-22)
5. Rockets (39-24)
6. Wolves (37-28)
t-7. Clippers (35-28)
t-7. Warriors (35-28)
9. Mavericks (34-30)
This is where it seems like things are headed. With just 20 games left in the schedule as they return home, the Warriors should be in top-8 position within striking distance of the six-seed, which would allow them to avoid the play-in tournament altogether.
Will they be able to take care of business on their road trip to make it happen? The pre-deadline Warriors were a hard team to bank on. If you buy what they’ve been saying recently, though, they are ready to get back to wreaking havoc on the rest of the league.