There are currently five NBA teams who have an open spot on their respective 15-man rosters and don’t have the ability to sign a free agent to fill that opening because of their proximity to a first- or second-apron hard cap.
For instance, after hard-capping themselves at the first apron in the offseason, the Lakers are operating just $1,124,195 below that threshold. A prorated minimum salary for a veteran signed today would count against the cap for $1,834,380 and wouldn’t fit under Los Angeles’ hard cap. But as of January 18, that figure would drop to $1,121,743, just low enough for the Lakers to accommodate it.
Here are the dates as of which those five teams who have 14-man rosters and are right up against a hard cap could first sign a player:
- January 7: Los Angeles Clippers
- January 8: Houston Rockets
- January 9: Orlando Magic
- January 18: Los Angeles Lakers
- April 2: New York Knicks
The Warriors were also on this list when the season began, but they now have enough room below their hard cap to sign a 15th man — every day they put off doing so creates a little more flexibility below that threshold, which could come in handy later in the season.
Those teams aren’t the only ones worth keeping an eye on due to their cap limitations though. The Mavericks, for example, have a full 15-man roster, but could be looking to make a change after ruling out Dante Exum for the season due to a knee injury. That wouldn’t be possible right now though, since Dallas is just $1,292,084 away from a second-apron hard cap. The Mavs won’t be able to add a new 15th man in place of Exum until January 6, at which point a prorated minimum deal would carry a cap charge of $1,280,107.
There are also a handful of teams operating just under the luxury tax line who wouldn’t have the ability to sign a free agent to a minimum-salary contract without surpassing that threshold. The tax line isn’t a hard cap, so there’s nothing stopping a club from surpassing it today and then trying to duck below it later in the season. But that comes with some risk, since getting below the tax typically requires the cooperation of a trade partner.
Here are the teams currently unable to sign a veteran free agent without going into the tax, along with the dates when that will change:
- December 13: Miami Heat
- December 19: Portland Trail Blazers
- January 26: Oklahoma City Thunder
The Trail Blazers and Thunder currently have full 15-man rosters, and there’s no indication that either team wants to make a roster move. The Heat, on the other hand, have an open roster spot, so they’re worth keeping a closer eye on starting in mid-December.
It’s worth noting that all of these dates apply to free agent signings only. If a team were to sign a player whose draft rights it held to a rookie minimum contract, the cap hit would be significantly lower, so it could happen sooner. But few teams have that sort of draft-rights player waiting in the wings to join the roster during the season.
We should also mention that the dates above only apply to one-year, minimum-salary contracts. If a team wants to bring in a player on a multiyear minimum deal, the first-year cap hit is generally higher, so it would have to happen later in the season.
Finally, these dates are all contingent on the team’s current cap situation, so they’re subject to change if a club makes a trade, completes a buyout, or makes a 10-day signing that changes its position relative to the tax line or aprons.