Four games into the NBA Finals, neither the Warriors nor the Celtics have put their stamp on the series and established themselves as the clear-cut frontrunner to win the 2022 title.
Both teams have won once at home and once on the road. Both have continued to avoid losing streaks of any kind — the Celtics are 7-0 in the postseason following a loss, while the Warriors are 6-0. As Zach Lowe of ESPN (Insider link) observes, the aggregate score of the Finals is 422-421 in favor of Golden State, and the two teams have made an identical number of three-pointers (64).
Oddsmakers like Bovada.lv and BetOnline.ag currently have the Warriors listed as slight favorites, but that’s mostly due to their home court advantage — the Dubs will host Game 5 at the Chase Center on Monday and would do the same in a potential Game 7 on Sunday.
As Lowe writes, given how tight the series has been so far, it’ll likely come down to “execution, toughness, poise, and a little luck.” Robert Williams‘ health will be an X-factor, as his knee continues to be a nagging issue. The Warriors’ ability to find second and third scorers to complement Stephen Curry will also be crucial. Through four games, Curry has 137 points and Klay Thompson – Golden State’s next-best scorer – has 69, Lowe notes.
Several more subplots will play a part in determining this year’s champion. As solid as Jayson Tatum has been in the series, he doesn’t have a signature performance yet, having shot just 34.1% from the field through four games. Does he have a huge game in him? How much can the Warriors expect from Draymond Green, who has been stout defensively but has done next to nothing on offense (4.3 PPG on 23.1% shooting)? Can the Celtics’ role players continue to knock down open catch-and-shoot threes? Will Boston need to adjust its pick-and-roll defense on Curry?
Lowe believes the Celtics are the “better, deeper team on paper,” but the Warriors have home court advantage and have had the best player in the series.
When we polled our readers prior to the start of the series, over 61% of respondents predicted a Warriors victory. If you voted for Golden State in that poll, are you still confident in your pick, or are you now leaning toward the Celtics? If you voted for Boston before the series, are you changing your pick now or sticking with it?
Ahead of Monday’s Game 5, vote in our latest poll below, then head to the comment section to share your thoughts!
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