From unlucky bounces to getting more out of their speed WRs, here’s why the Niners will improve in 2025
The San Francisco 49ers‘ 6-win campaign in 2024 was undoubtedly disappointing. However, there are some silver linings to take away from last season. What if I told you the Niners were the best 11+ loss team, according to DVOA (schedule-adjusted efficiency) in NFL history by a significant margin?
Before playing Brock Purdy in a meaningless 18th game, San Francisco was 10th in schedule-adjusted efficiency, which is generally where teams that are headed for the Wild Card round rank.
Unluckiness and injuries aside, there’s reason to believe that last year was a fluke full of outliers. Let’s go over a few areas where positive regression favors the 49ers moving forward.
Expectedly unexpected bounces
If it felt like nothing went the 49ers way in 2024, you wouldn’t be far off. They were 2-5 in one-score games. They had four losses with a post-game win expectancy of at least 24 percent. When using DVOA, no team had a bigger gap between their expected win total and their actual win total than the Niners.
Whether it was missed field goals or a scrambling Geno Smith, San Francisco could not figure out how to close games last season. That should change in 2025. Here’s how.
Another year has passed, and another year where the 49ers led the league in adjusted games lost. Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, Brandon Aiyuk, and defensive starters not missing multiple games or being in and out of the lineup should help the coehesion of the team. Not shuffling through players at critical positions should be worth a win or two alone.
The 49ers could do a lot of the same things as last year, and the ball will bounce in their favor. Between an inevitable improvement in 1-score games and not blowing multiple fourth quarter leads paired with a soft schedule, the football gods should be more forgiving to the Niners in 2025.
Robert Saleh back in the fold will only help a leaking run defense. And Saleh will have a defense that added plenty of beef and athleticism in the front seven.
Creating after the catch
For seemingly every season since 2019 under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers had been near or the top ofo the league in yards after catch. They fell to around average last season, and that lack of yards after the catch made a significant difference. Longer down and distances made third downs tougher to convert, and it ultimately led to the Niners taking a step backward on offense.
The 49ers averaged 5.3 yards after the catch in 2024, which was good enough for 13th — the worst mark sense the pre-playoff days under Shanahan. Deebo Samuel’s 417 YAC for the season was more than 200 yards fewer than 2023, and only 16 yards more than 2020 — a season where Deebo missed most of the year and only had 44 targets.
Jauan Jennings has never been the kind of player that excels once the ball is in his hands — which is why it’s puzzling for him to hint at a trade request.
Ricky Pearsall only averaged 3.5 yards after the catch as a rookie. It’s hard to hold anything against Pearsall after everything he endured last season, but that’s a number that must improve moving forward. The good news is, judging by his usage, it should. And the combination of Jacob Cowing and Jordan Watkins should more than supplement Deebo’s 2024 production.
Christian McCaffrey will be the biggest gain in this department. McCaffrey is essentially an automatic first down when you throw him the ball. He’s averaged north of seven yards after the catch every season before 2024. Last year, McCaffrey’s YAC was 6.7 on 19 yargets. More McCaffrey, Kittle, and Aiyuk once he’s healthy should have the 49ers looking more like the YAC bros of yesteryear, and the offense returning to an elite unit.