The 49ers are in dire need of a win after a few rough weeks.
Coming off two straight blowout losses, the San Francisco 49ers will look to right the ship on Sunday when they face the Chicago Bears, with kickoff set for 1:25 p.m. at Levi’s Stadium.
It’s been a rough few weeks for the 49ers, who have seen their playoff hopes dwindle after two ugly losses to the Green Bay Packers and Buffalo Bills, keeping them at 5-7 and fourth place in the NFC West.
Now, they face a Chicago Bears team that has gone 4-8 this year, losing their last six games after starting the year with a promising 4-2 record.
San Francisco comes into this game without star left tackle Trent Williams once again, while defensive end Nick Bosa is doubtful to play. Elsewhere, left guard Aaron Banks is questionable with a concussion, but hasn’t suited up all week in practice.
What’s the formula to success for the 49ers against Chicago on Sunday?
Get to Caleb Williams
Pressure has been an issue for the 49ers in each of their last two games, as they had just five pressures in their 35-10 loss to the Buffalo Bills without Nick Bosa.
San Francisco hasn’t looked to mix things up much this season, but they need to find a way to pressure quarterback Caleb Williams.
Williams’s numbers are expected for a rookie, but the quarterback has completed just 44.1 percent of his passes when under pressure, while holding on to the ball for a whopping 4.06 seconds.
Holding on to the football too long has been an issue for Williams at times this year, and the 49ers need to find a way to exploit that, especially with their secondary fully healthy as Deommodore Lenoir is set to return.
The rookie quarterback has been good at limiting turnover-worthy plays, but his pressure-to-sack rate stands high at 29.2 percent. So, if the 49ers can generate pressure, be it via a four-man rush or more likely from blitzes, they seem poised to be in good shape on Sunday.
That means Leonard Floyd and Maliek Collins will need to step up as a part of the pass rush, while Nick Sorensen will need to dial up some well-timed blitzes.
Stop the run
There have been a lot of issues with the 49ers in 2024, but one key has been clear: stop the run and you win games.
The 49ers have held opponents to under 75 yards rushing in four of their five wins this season, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win being the lone difference (110 rushing yards allowed).
Consequently, they’ve allowed over 150 yards on average on the ground in their seven losses, best seen by their 220 rushing yards allowed against the Buffalo Bills last Sunday.
The Bears haven’t been a great rushing team this year, ranking 23rd in the NFL with 109 rushing yards per game this season. But, they’ve had some major games, going over 200 yards in an 18-15 loss to the Washington Commanders and rushing for 179 yards in the 20-19 loss to the Green Bay Packers.
So, Chicago is very capable of putting together some strong performances on the ground, even if they’ve struggled in recent weeks. If San Francisco can stop the run effectively enough, it helps the first point of getting pressure on Caleb Williams in longer-distance situations.
Red Zone
I wrote about it earlier this week, but it really feels like the red zone could play a big factor in Sunday’s game.
The Bears are a top-five red zone efficiency team in the NFL, scoring touchdowns on 2/3 of their trips inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. Meanwhile, the 49ers defense has been one of the league’s worst in the category, ranking 31st in the NFL by allowing touchdowns on 70.7 percent of opponent drives.
San Francisco’s defense will need to do a much better job than they have over the past three weeks, where they’ve allowed 11 touchdowns on 11 red zone drives over the three losses.
Of course, the best red zone defense is not letting your opponent get inside the 20-yard line, but the 49ers need to be better at preventing touchdowns.
On the flip side, the red zone offense has been an issue all year long. So, if the defense isn’t holding up well inside the 20-yard line, the offense will need to find a second gear, and that’ll have to come without Christian McCaffrey, who has been ruled out for the remainder of the regular season with a PCL injury.
If this game becomes closer than expected or turns into a Bears upset, results in the red zone could be the biggest reason why.