The 49ers have some of the best odds to make the playoffs in the NFC.
The San Francisco 49ers didn’t have the season they envisioned in 2024. After three straight NFC Championship appearances, the team fell short last season, going 6-11 and finishing the year 1-6.
San Francisco dealt with numerous injuries, struggled in one-score games, and went just 1-5 in the division, leading to their worst season since 2018.
Now, after getting rid of several veterans in the offseason and replacing them with younger talent in the draft, the 49ers hope to turn the page in 2025 and return to contention.
But, just how good are their chances to make the playoffs or even win the NFC West?
ESPN’s Aaron Schatz ranked the eight fourth-place teams from 2024, looking at their odds to go from worst in the division to first, He also gave their percentages to make the playoffs using FPI (Football Power Index), which is primarily based on win totals from the betting market in conjunction with each team’s schedule.
The 49ers were ranked No. 1 with a 35.8 percent chance to win the division, best of any team in the NFC West. They also were given a 62.4 percent chance to make the playoffs, which was the third-best odds in the NFC.
“The 49ers have by far the best odds to go from worst to first for three main reasons: schedule, health and they weren’t really that bad last season,” Schatz wrote.
“San Francisco finished the 2024 season ranked ninth in FPI. DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) ratings at FTN didn’t have the 49ers quite that high, but they were still 14th despite a losing record. Their DVOA of 6.7% was easily the best ever by an 11-loss team, going all the way back to 1978.”
The return from injuries for key players played a big role in the high percentages for San Francisco, as did the most favorable schedule in the NFL.
“The 49ers will return a ton of key players from injuries this season, including running back Christian McCaffrey, wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk and left tackle Trent Williams. While the Lions’ defense dominated headlines because of its injuries in 2024, the 49ers led the NFL in adjusted games lost to injury. That’s a clear indicator for improvement in 2025.
“Finally, the 49ers have the easiest projected schedule in the league, which is why FPI favors them to win the NFC West over the Rams, who are rated higher overall. The NFC South and AFC South make for an easy schedule outside of their division games, while the 49ers also get to play the Giants, Browns and Bears. The Rams have a much harder slate with matchups against the Eagles, Ravens and Lions.”
Of the teams that finished fourth in their division last season, San Francisco was the only one to have a playoff percentage over 50 percent and have either the best or second-best odds to win their division.
While the schedule and underlying metrics look favorable, the 49ers still have to be much better in one-score games, which was a major issue in 2024. If they can do that, a return to the playoffs seems feasible in 2025.