The 49ers aren’t the only team hobbling into Monday night
When the schedule was released in May, Week 17 for the San Francisco 49ers was regarded as a game with massive playoff implications.
The 13-2 Detroit Lions held up their end of the bargain entering Week 17 with a chance to clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The 49ers did not hold up their side of the deal, looking to avoid a fourth double-digit loss season for the fourth time in eight years under Kyle Shanahan.
While the Lions are still playing for seeding, the 49ers are playing with an eye towards 2025. Here are the numbers to know for Monday night’s NFC Championship Game rematch:
6
Six starters from the Lions’ defense in Week 1 are currently on injured reserve.
Detroit has been among the most injured this season, with 19 players on injured reserve – and that doesn’t include David Montgomery, who likely won’t play again in the regular season.
But the defense has been particularly snake-bitten. Of those 19 players on injured reserve, 14 are on defense. Broken down by position, the Lions have three cornerbacks, four linebackers, and seven defensive linemen on injured reserve.
It’s not just the number of players but also the quality that have suffered from those injuries. The six starters from Week 1 on injured reserve are:
- DL Aiden Hutchinson (leads Detroit with 7.5 sacks despite not playing since October 13)
- DL Alim McNeil (second with 3.5 sacks)
- DL Kyle Peko
- LB Derrick Brooks
- LB Alex Anzalone
- CB Carlton Davis
For comparison, the 49ers – who have had their fair share of injuries – only have two Week 1 starters from their defense on injured reserve: Javon Hargrave and George Odum.
Despite all of the injuries to the defense, the Lions have allowed 19.9 points per game, one of seven teams to allow fewer than 20 points per game this season. San Francisco must score much more than 20 against the understaffed Lions’ defense, if anything, just to keep pace with an explosive Detroit offense.
26
The Lions offense has attempted 26 fourth-down conversions, the sixth-most attempts in the league.
Dan Campbell has earned a madman reputation for how often he goes for it on fourth down. There are times when Campbell’s aggressiveness looks crazy, but the craziest part is how frequently the Lions offense converts.
Detroit’s 69.2 fourth-down conversion rate ranks fifth-best in the league, but that percentage ranks best among the teams with the ten-most fourth-down attempts. Simply put, no team that goes for it as much as the Lions converts more frequently than the Lions.
Part of the team’s success on fourth downs has been the manageability of the attempts. Of the 26 attempts, 21 have been on fourth-and-5 or fewer, with the average distance to go on those fourth downs at 3.42 yards.
San Francisco has allowed third-down conversions at 41.9 percent, the ninth-highest rate in the league. That conversion rate jumps to 61.9 percent on fourth downs. The key for the 49ers’ defense is to keep gains minimal on first and second down and prevent short third down attempts that could tempt Campbell to attempt a fourth down if not converted.
2.99
Detroit’s offense averages 2.99 points per drive, the most in the league.
With Detroit extending so many drives on fourth downs, it’s given the Lions plenty more chances to score points, and they’ve taken advantage of those opportunities.
The best way to put it would be to say Detroit’s average drive results in a field goal. For example, the Lions have ten offensive possessions as they did in the NFC Championship Game earlier this year; they’re likely walking out of Levi’s Stadium on Monday night with at least 30 points.
That creates a problem for the 49ers’ offense, which has scored more than 30 points just four times this season and only once since the bye week.
But it’s not just the points per drive that Detroit leads the league in. The Lions’ have scored points on 82-of-161 drives this season, a league-high rate of 50.9 percent. Of those 161 drives, the Lions have scored a touchdown on a league-high 36.6 percent of drives.
All those numbers say is that the Lions score a lot, and they score often. San Francisco’s defense will have its hands full against Detroit just a week removed from allowing 29 points to the Dolphins. The 29 points allowed was the third-most the 49ers defense has allowed this season, with all of the top-three scoring performances coming after San Francisco’s bye week.
The 49ers have allowed plenty of points in recent weeks, while the Lions have scored more than enough all season. San Francisco’s defense must perform phenomenally in hopes of stopping the high-powered Lions.