Will Isaac Guerendo be hurt the most from a snap count point of view after the 49ers 2025 NFL Draft?
We don’t talk enough about how the NFL Draft impacts players already on the roster. The San Francisco 49ers didn’t consider the offensive side of the ball until Day 3.
The only reinforcements needed on offense were correlated to Deebo Samuel’s loss. The Niners had made it clear that they did not value spending a premium pick on left guard again, and Colton McKivitz enters the final year of his extension. Several starters returned. Kyle Shanahan is banking on his three best players on that side of the ball — Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, and Brandon Aiyuk — all returning to health in 2025. Those three are the offseason additions for the Niners.
After drafting Jordan James and Jordan Watkins, Pro Football Network believes second-year running back Isaac Guerendo is one of the biggest losers of the NFL Draft:
Isaac Guerendo
Christian McCaffrey is the clear bell-cow running back for the San Francisco 49ers. However, with him turning 29 before the season and a long injury history, depth matters.
Second-year pro Isaac Guerendo was expected to be the top backup, but the 49ers’ moves suggest otherwise. They drafted Oregon’s Jordan James in the fifth round and signed PFSN’s top-ranked UDFA running back in Cincinnati’s Corey Kiner.
James and Kiner are decisive zone-scheme runners, while Guerendo often frustrated as a rookie by dancing behind the line. He was stuffed on 19% of his runs in 2024, the highest among 49ers backs. Although he averaged 5.0 yards per attempt thanks to explosive plays, he had a boom-or-bust feel.
Guerendo is more physically talented than the rookies, but the new additions suggest the 49ers want a more consistent runner behind McCaffrey. If he can’t adapt, fantasy managers may need to look elsewhere for McCaffrey handcuffs.
I mentioned Watkins because Ole Miss used him almost identically to Deebo — more on that later. So, despite him being a receiver, he caught a lot of passes that were more “extended handoffs.”
Some of those stats from above about Guerendo are concerning. His “flashy” plays covered up Guerendo’s inefficiency. Guerendo was in the negatives in rushing yards over expectation inside the tackles and rushing EPA outside of the tackles.
Success rate is one of the better ways to measure a player’s effectiveness. It tells you if they picked up the necessary yardage based on the down and distance. Guerendo’s success rate was 39 percent, which puts him in a category with Ezekiel Elliott.
The rookie also struggled to force missed tackles. Guerendo’s missed tackle-forced rate was 15.5 percent. For reference, Jordan Mason’s was 35.8 percent.
Then, there’s the health. One of the reasons Kyle Shanahan insists on drafting a running back every year is because he’s on record saying most teams go through 3-4 per season. Guerendo sustaining injuries early in training camp and through the year, all the way up to Week 18, should be concerning.
So, it’s less about who the 49ers brought in and more about what Guerendo put on the field last season as to why he’s listed.