49ers should have the right recipe to turn a key weakness back into a strength in 2025

The 49ers’ difficulties against man coverage in 2024 were a key part of a drop-off on offense, but they have the weapons to excel in that area this season.

The 49ers’ offense was still one of the more efficient in football last season, finishing 11th in EPA per play, 12th in success rate, and ninth in DVOA. Yet San Francisco’s attack undoubtedly took a substantial statistical step back from their juggernaut season of 2023, when the 49ers finished first in each of those categories.

Injuries played a significant role in that drop-off, but there was also a clear issue for the 49er passing game that contributed to the less impressive production, one that reared its head in the Super Bowl at the end of the 2023 season as San Francisco consistently struggled to beat the Kansas City Chiefs’ man coverage.

That problem carried into 2024, as the numbers from a frustrating 6-11 campaign illustrate.

The man coverage conundrum

Having led the NFL in EPA per play versus man in 2023, quarterback Brock Purdy dropped to 13th by the same measure among quarterbacks with a minimum of 100 plays against that coverage, per Sumer Sports.

Purdy’s eight interceptions against man were fewer than only Baker Mayfield (10) and Geno Smith (9), while his completion percentage versus that coverage dropped from a league-leading 63.4 in 2023 to 51.4 in 2024, putting him 26th.

That is partially explained by the increased willingness of defenses to play man against the 49ers. In 2023, Purdy had 186 plays against man in 16 games, however, that number jumped to 249 in just 15 games in 2024.

With a greater number of plays against a certain type of coverage, there is a much greater chance for inefficiency in attacking it, yet defenses only had the confidence to play man at an increased rate because of the success they found in restricting the 49er receivers.

Only three 49ers pass-catchers – not counting running backs – averaged 2 or more yards per route run against man coverage in 2025.

One was Geroge Kittle (2.36), who remains a mismatch nightmare at tight end. The others were Jauan Jennings (2.47) and Jacob Cowing (2.37).

Cowing’s average came in a very small sample size of just 27 routes run against man.

Jennings’ success, meanwhile, was in part a product of his ability to succeed without separation by consistently winning at the catch point. His contested catch rate of 62.5% ranked tied fifth among wide receivers with at least 100 targets, per Pro Football Focus.

While Jennings’ talents in that regard were a significant asset, Deebo Samuel’s issues getting off physical man coverage that were apparent in the Super Bowl persisted, and Brandon Aiyuk’s devastating knee injury robbed the 49ers of their best route runner, one who averaged 3.25 yards per route run versus man in 2023 and had the highest passer rating when targeted in the NFL on targets of 20 yards or more that season.

But with Aiyuk set to return at some stage in 2025, the 49ers will hope they have the offensive ingredients to perform much better against man coverage this season.

The right recipe

If he quickly returns to his best, Aiyuk will be critical to them doing so. Running back Christian McCaffrey will also have a crucial role to play if he avoids the Achilles problems that derailed his 2024. McCaffrey racked up 242 yards receiving and five touchdowns versus man in 2023, good for a passer rating when targeted of 143.6, reflecting the level to which he is a horrendous matchup for linebackers in the passing game and a cheat code for Purdy through which he can punish defenses for playing man.

As they wait for Aiyuk to return, however, the 49ers will need other wideouts to step up and help remove defeating man coverage as a problem for the attack.

There were promising signs from first-round pick Ricky Pearsall towards the end of his disrupted rookie campaign. Over the course of the final three weeks of the season, only Brian Thomas Jr. and Michael Pittman averaged more yards per route run versus man than Pearsall (4.83) among receivers with at least five targets against it in that span.

San Francisco will look for Pearsall to continue to show promise as a separator at all three levels but, in the early period of the season when Aiyuk may still be on the sidelines, the 49ers would benefit from successfully replacing his production as a downfield weapon.

Free agent addition Demarcus Robinson has consistently displayed prowess as a deep target and had six touchdowns against man last season for the Rams, and fourth-round picks Jacob Cowing and Jordan Watkins also have the speed to stretch defenses downfield.

Cowing ran the 40-yard dash in 4.38 seconds and, across preseason and the brief playing time he saw in the regular season last year – most notably against the Chiefs after Aiyuk’s injury – showed signs of the damage he can do going deep with his speed and route-running craft.

Kittle recently remarked how Cowing had added bulk to his frame this offseason. That change to his frame should theoretically put Cowing in a better position to handle press-man coverage, and there have been positive reports about the former Arizona wideout and Ole Miss product Watkins from offseason practices.

In his final year at Ole Miss, Watkins caught 13 of his 14 targets against man for 280 yards and four touchdowns. Watkins, his Ole Miss teammate Tre Harris and Oregon’s Traeshon Holden were the only three Power Four receivers to have a passer rating when targeted of 158.3 versus man. The same season saw six of Watkins’ 11 receptions of 20 yards or more go for touchdowns.

The 49ers will be able to put themselves in much more advantageous situations if they pose a dangerous downfield threat regardless of Aiyuk’s status. It’s much harder for defenses to be able to lean on man coverage if there is a constant danger of them paying the price for doing so by conceding explosive plays. That is what makes the addition of Robinson and the potential progress of Cowing and Watkins so key for San Francisco.

That trio also have the explosiveness to stretch defenses horizontally, a trait that could be especially useful in terms of the 49ers’ deployment of motion.

It’s hardly a secret that the 49ers have used motion more than any team in the NFL since Kyle Shanahan took over way back in 2017, and they have wreaked havoc doing so.

However, in recent years, Samuel attracted criticism for appearing to run at less than full speed and failing to make an exerted effort to sell the motion. Having players with the speed of Cowing and Watkins going in motion could maximize its deceptive impact while also giving those players a head of steam that, when used against man coverage, could put defenders tasked with trailing them in extremely difficult positions.

Of course, such players having that kind of influence hinges on Shanahan’s level of trust in them, and the 49ers’ success in beating man also depends on Purdy’s ability to process quickly when faced with the pressure looks that such coverage facilitates.

Still, between McCaffrey’s return, the prospective recovery of Aiyuk, Jennings’ prowess for winning without separation and the encouraging signs from a twitchy group of young receivers, the 49ers can afford to have confidence of a return to their 2023 form when facing man coverage in 2025.