It never was good to start.
When we last examined the San Francisco 49ers’ bad luck in 2023, they were among the league’s worst teams. Not much has changed since then, except that they have gotten worse.
Data guru Tom Bliss posted his annual luck stats for the 2024 NFL season. The 49ers didn’t improve, in fact they got worse. Only the Atlanta Falcons, Green Bay Packers, and Seattle Seahawks did worse. The Seahawks having worse luck than the 49ers seems strange, considering their luck has been a punchline in these parts, but according to this, they were more unlucky than the 49ers.
Final luck dashboard of 2024 season.
Most impactful plays this season:
Dropped Int: CLE dropped int vs BAL in Q4 (31.8%)
Dropped Pass: NO dropped 2pt Conv vs WAS in Q4 (92.9%)
FG: ATL made 58-yd FG vs NO in Q4 (64.3%)
Fumble Recovery: CIN fumble recovery vs BAL in OT (34.9%) pic.twitter.com/vwRoMol8KL— Tom Bliss (@DataWithBliss) January 6, 2025
While the 49ers had some of the worst luck in the league over the last few years, the eventual Super Bowl Champions, the Kansas City Chiefs (who they lost to in overtime in the championship), would sit at number one if you took multiple years. This year, the Chiefs sit at No 3.
This might seem odd at first, but when you look at the metrics, there’s not much to account for the officiating the Chiefs have been the beneficiaries of for 2024. Who knows where bad calls would rank here and if that would swing the Chiefs up or down. There have been too many crucial plays at the end of the game where a call was made to swing the Chiefs’ way.
In 2023, the 49ers overcame lousy luck and still made it to the Super Bowl. That sounds like it doesn’t happen very often and is a testament to just how good the 49ers were last year. Unfortunately, it was even worse this year.