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49ers vs. Bills Preview: Will Buffalo Clinch AFC East Division Title?

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49ers Bills

The Buffalo Bills can secure their fifth straight AFC East division title with a Week 13 win over the San Francisco 49ers. The clinching opportunity arose after the Miami Dolphins lost to the Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving night.

Weather might be a factor at Highmark Stadium for Sunday Night Football. Western New York is under a Lake Effect Snow Warning, which could drop four to five feet of snow on the area. Lake effect snow bands are typically hard to predict and narrow, however, so there’s no guarantee it’ll hit Orchard Park during the game.

The forecast creates another variable as the Bills and the Niners, who are desperately trying to keep pace in the NFC playoff race, prepare for their primetime clash. Sunday’s kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock.

49ers-Bills Game Preview and Score Prediction (Week 13)

X-Factors

49ers: RB Christian McCaffrey

McCaffrey’s return from a long injury absence to open the 2024 season was supposed to spark the Niners’ offense. It hasn’t happened. He’s averaging just 3.5 yards per carry and he’s yet to score a touchdown through three appearances. He tallied 21 total TDs in 14 games last year.

The reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year said he’s feeling the progress, even if it hasn’t shown up in the box score quite yet.

“I feel like I’m getting a lot better,” McCaffrey told reporters. “You have to manage your expectations a lot of times, but for me, it’s not about anything statistical right now, it’s just about getting better every single day. I know I’m doing that, which I’m excited about. For me, my mindset is always the same whether I have success or failure. When you lose and don’t jump out on the stat sheet, your failures get highlighted, but I’m the same way all the time.”

If there was ever a game where the 49ers need CMC to put his Superman cape on, this may be it. Not only are they on the road against one of the NFL’s best teams, but their injury report is overflowing with high-impact players, including quarterback Brock Purdy, offensive tackle Trent Williams and edge-rusher Nick Bosa, among others.

Meanwhile, the Bills’ biggest weakness is defending the run. Buffalo is allowing 4.9 yards per carry this season, which is tied for the league’s third-worst mark.

In Week 4, they allowed Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry to completely take over the game. He rushed for 199 yards and a touchdown in the Ravens’ 35-10 blowout win. San Francisco is going to need a similar performance from McCaffrey on Sunday.

Bills: LB Terrel Bernard

Buffalo may get All-Pro linebacker Matt Milano back from injury on Sunday. It’s unfair to expect him to play anywhere near his peak level, though. He hasn’t played in a competitive game since Oct. 8, 2023. He suffered a season-ending leg injury in that contest then sustained a bicep injury during training camp this year.

In turn, there will be a lot of pressure on Bernard to provide stability in the middle of the defense until his running mate gets back up to full speed.

Bernard is putting together his second straight standout season. The 25-year-old Texas native has recorded 57 total tackles, three passes defended, two interceptions, a sack, and a fumble recovery in eight games. He’s done it while battling ankle and pectoral injuries.

Few linebackers in the NFL possess his combination of range, athleticism, and tackling ability. It allows him to fill a lot of gaps within the Bills defense. Some of those responsibilities will be removed when Milano is clicking on all cylinders, but that’ll take some time.

For now, Bernard is still the most important player for Buffalo defensively, and he’ll be tasked with keeping McCaffrey and tight end George Kittle in check Sunday.

Key Matchup

49ers DE Leonard Floyd vs. Bills RT Spencer Brown

If San Francisco is going to pull off the upset, it must do two things consistently well: run the ball with CMC and get pressure on Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen.

Floyd, who spent last season with the Bills, is having a strong year for the Niners. He’s recorded 32 total tackles, 6.5 sacks, and a forced fumble in 11 appearances. The 32-year-old University of Georgia product has posted at least nine sacks in every season since 2020. He’s pacing to hit that mark again.

The burden on him to create pressure increases exponentially when Bosa doesn’t play, and trying to chase Allen around the field all day is no easy task.

Floyd does get a favorable matchup against Brown, though. The Bills’ right tackle has been plagued by penalties this season. He’s been flagged 12 times, with nine being accepted for a total of 70 yards of lost offense. His Pro Football Focus grade stands at a lackluster 67.9.

Brown is also returning from an ankle injury that kept him out of Buffalo’s win over the Kansas City Chiefs before the bye.

If Floyd can win that one-on-one battle regularly, the Niners will have a shot.

Final Score Prediction: 20-17 Bills

This is a tricky game to predict because of all the variables. Both teams have several important players who are either out or questionable. The weather could create difficult playing conditions, which would seemingly favor San Francisco and turn the contest into a true toss-up.

Yet, the Bills have spent the past few years methodically trying to build a team that’s better suited to win these December and January games. Matching up with the 49ers on a snowy landscape would be a major litmus test of their progress in that regard.

So why pick Buffalo to win? Josh Allen.

The MVP contender has been a man on a mission this season. He’s not running as much this season, but when he does, it often becomes a game-changing play. The Chiefs found that out the hard way as his 26-yard touchdown run ended their dreams of an undefeated season.

Allen is the best player on the field in most games (if not every game). Now that he’s cut down on his mistakes, there’s no player more valuable to their team in the NFL.

All told, San Francisco will likely keep this game close, even if Purdy and Bosa doesn’t play. It can’t afford many more losses in a crowded NFC playoff race. As a result, the Niners will have to play every week with a playoff mentality from here on out.

The Bills aren’t short on their own motivation, though. Locking up the AFC East and keeping themselves in the No. 1 seed chase are both motivating factors.

Bottom line: Look for Buffalo to come out on top in an entertaining SNF clash.

Main Image: Gregory Fisher – USA Today Sports

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