Commanders RB Brian Robinson has been a steady producer in Washington for the past three seasons. The burly former Alabama back rebounded from being shot in a carjacking attempt his rookie year to play 12 games and still lead the team in rushing. He’s gone on to be Washington’s starter and leading rusher each of the past two seasons, topping 700 yards on the ground all three years.
Yet Robinson has also never exceeded 800 yards rushing in a season. While he’s a rock-solid, all-around player, he’s not the most dynamic or explosive playmaker, which is likely among the reasons his name suddenly cropped up in trade rumors this weekend. Washington is holding him out of Monday’s preseason contest, which is another omen that he’s on his way out. With roster cuts a week away, Robinson is suddenly one of the most high-profile players available.
Why Would Washington Trade Robinson?
As Robinson entered the final year of his rookie contract in 2025, the Commanders kept an eye out for the future. They think they may have found it, as seventh-round RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt has been one of the biggest stars of training camp in Washington. Reports that the Commanders have been shopping Robinson in trade talks with other teams say as much about Croskey-Merritt as they do Robinson.
Robinson is a steady player, with great size at 6-1 and nearly 230 pounds, plus more receiving ability than you might expect for a back that big. In 2023, Robinson caught 36 passes for 368 yards and four touchdowns, finishing the year with over 1,100 yards from scrimmage. He’s scored 17 touchdowns as Washington’s lead back over the past two seasons.
However, the explosiveness Croskey-Merritt has flashed in training camp and the preseason is a tool Robinson just doesn’t seem to have in his bag. For a big back, he’s also been banged up a fair amount. It’s hard to fault him for getting shot in his rookie year, but after notching 205 carries that season, Robinson has not been able to cross that mark in the last two years. A variety of nicks and scrapes have held him back and caused him to miss time each season.
Commanders beat reporter Ben Standig floated a bold prediction on his podcast last week that Robinson was not going to be on the roster in Week 1. He caveated that he had no sources and it was just a gut feeling (erego not for aggregation) but time has shown him not to be off-base. Standing cited the rise of Croskey-Merritt as a potential starter and Washington’s comfort with depth players like Chris Rodriguez and Jeremy McNichols as reasons why they might be willing to move on from Robinson, either via a trade or cut.
Yes, a cut. It sounds wild at first for a player who’s been as solid as Robinson, but there is a real chance Washington ends up releasing their former starter in the coming days. And the reason for that is ironically because Robinson has been so solid in his first three seasons, playing enough to qualify for the NFL’s Proven Performance Escalator and raise his 2025 base salary to $3.4 million.
The PPE was negotiated into the collective bargaining agreement by the NFLPA as a way to reward players who outperformed their cheap rookie contracts. Players who reach a certain threshold for snaps played over their first three seasons get a raise. In theory, it’s a great idea. In practice, it often works against players. The PPE is not guaranteed, giving teams leverage to force players into a pay cut at risk of losing a roster spot to someone else under contract at a cheaper sum. Players who earn the PPE are often late-rounders or undrafted free agents who were unexpectedly pressed into bigger roles, but aren’t established enough to hold firm against pay cut requests.
Ordinarily, Robinson would be one of those players with enough standing to not have to worry about a pay cut, but job security for running backs is different. The rise of Croskey-Merritt — who was scouted and drafted by the current front office and staff unlike Robinson, a distinction that does tend to matter — has changed his standing, and if he’s not going to be the starter, $3.4 million is a lot to pay for a backup (more than all but three backs got in free agency this year in fact). It’s also going to impact his trade market, as $3.4 million is not a small number to be changing hands at this point in the NFL calendar.
Robinson is certainly a good enough player to be traded, and there are certainly teams where he’d be a definitive upgrade either as a starter or in a committee. Most of the time, however, teams won’t stretch to acquire a running back unless he’s a special, dynamic player. At 26 years old, Robinson is a known commodity — solid but not dynamic. If the Commanders do find a trade partner, the compensation will likely be a late-round pick or pick swap for a team looking to jump the waiver priority line.
Potential Landing Spots
Chicago Bears
New Bears HC Ben Johnson has been building an offense exactly like people envisioned when he came over from Detroit, with a heavy emphasis on physicality and running the ball. What’s interesting, however, is the Bears’ backfield doesn’t quite match up to the expectations for a team that says it wants to be run-heavy. The starting running back is D’Andre Swift, who is fast and an interesting weapon in the receiving game. However, the Lions traded Swift while Johnson was there because they thought he was too inconsistent a decision-maker between the tackles. There’s a role for Swift but it’s not as the physical tone-setter that Johnson’s offenses have usually had.
As of now, that role would be filled by either Roschon Johnson, who has a career yards per carry of 3.7, or seventh-rounder Kyle Monangai, who is exceeding the expectations of his draft capital but is still a late-round rookie. This is why the Bears were widely expected to address their backfield this offseason, but after missing out on a few targets in the draft, they weren’t moved by available free agents like Nick Chubb and J.K. Dobbins.
Perhaps their patience will pay off. Robinson is exactly the kind of physical, punishing runner Johnson’s offenses have featured. His versatility is an excellent fit, similar to players like Jamaal Williams and David Montgomery who were capable of playing all three downs without tipping Johnson’s playcall. He’s more proven than both Johnson and Monangai, and given the way the Bears want to play, well worth $3.4 million of the team’s remaining $13.2 million in cap space.
It’s also worth pointing out that Robinson’s best season was in 2023 with Bears RB coach Eric Bieniemy calling the plays. Coaching connections are the catalyst for a lot of player movement in the NFL, and that’s a strong one. I’d go so far as to say the Bears should be considered the favorites to land Robinson if/when he’s moved.
Tennessee Titans
The Titans have much bigger needs than running back at the moment as the team continues its rebuilding process. Edge rusher, cornerback, linebacker, receiver and offensive line all loom as potential weak spots, while at running back the team has a solid duo between Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears. However, there are a couple of elements that make the Titans a sleeper team to watch.
The first is the presence of RB coach Randy Jordan, Robinson’s position coach his first two seasons in Washington who joined Tennessee’s coaching staff last year when the Commanders overhauled their staff. Jordan was a big supporter of Robinson, more so than the current staff. The second is that the Titans have alluded to wanting more of a mix in the backfield to keep Pollard and Spears healthy.
Spears has a high ankle sprain right now and the staff has talked more about getting him a bigger role without actually following through. Pollard had topped 250 carries each of the past two seasons and has looked worn down, with his YPC falling a full yard compared to the start of his career when he was in more of a timeshare. Robinson would bring more of a power back element to the Titans’ offense than either Pollard or Spears. He’d also potentially allow the team to split up the touches more and get more efficiency out of everyone involved.
San Francisco 49ers
Ironically, Christian McCaffrey is currently the only healthy 49ers running back on the roster. Everyone else is dealing with some form of bodily malady. It’s a foreboding sign for a 49ers team that 1) wants to run the ball a lot, and 2) historically has tended to deal with more running back injuries than the average team.
None of the other backs on the depth chart have season-ending injuries right now. Guys like Isaac Guerendo, fifth-rounder Jordan James, UDFA Corey Kiner and journeyman Patrick Taylor should be back sooner rather than later. Robinson also has a history of missing time, so he’s not an ironclad fix to San Francisco’s injury woes.
However, Guerendo’s injury history is severe and dates back to college. There are serious questions about his ability to stay healthy if McCaffrey goes down. James and Kiner are unproven rookies, while Taylor is a career practice squad player or special teamer. Robinson would give the 49ers a legitimate handcuff for McCaffrey and be a quality fit in the system.
Los Angeles Chargers
Under HC Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman, the Chargers will always have designs on being one of the run-heaviest offenses in the league, even with QB Justin Herbert. That led to them spending a first-round pick on RB Omarion Hampton and a healthy free agent contract for RB Najee Harris. However, Harris has yet to practice due to an eye injury suffered in a fireworks accident on the Fourth of July.
Roman has said he wants to rotate runners no matter what to keep everyone fresh, and if Harris can’t make it back, the Chargers are looking pretty thin at the position. The rest of the depth chart is rounded out by Kimani Vidal, Hassan Haskins, undrafted rookie Raheim Sanders, Jaret Patterson and Nyheim Hines. Robinson is unquestionably an upgrade over the whole batch, and if the Chargers run the ball as much as Roman wants, there’s probably room for him to have a role even with a healthy Hampton and Harris.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings have already been among the most active teams at the running back position this offseason, re-signing RB Aaron Jones to a major extension and swinging a trade for RB Jordan Mason. That might suggest that they’ve used all their ammo at the position. However, the team clearly wants to emphasize the run more in 2025 to help ease the transition to first-year starting QB J.J. McCarthy. The No. 3 running back is a major question mark, with Minnesota seemingly looking for any alternative to Ty Chandler.
The No. 3 RB might not seem like a high priority, but given Jones’ age, Mason’s injury history and Minnesota’s goals, adding an experienced upgrade like Robinson would make some sense, particularly if the Vikings can figure out a way not to pay full freight.
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