Over the last five seasons, George Kittle has been one of the best tight ends in all of football. He’s dominated the league and has truly been the best pass catcher for the San Francisco 49ers at times. However, there are more mouths to feed out in the bay and Kittle’s once-large target share might take a hit. On the field, he’ll remain one of the premier tight ends in the NFL, but in the virtual world of fantasy football, he comes with questions. Between the stiffer target competition, quarterback conundrum, and a healthy dose of the running game, this offense is a mystery. Can George Kittle continue being elite despite these obstacles?
2023 Fantasy Football Player Profile: George Kittle
Struck Gold at Quarterback?
In the 2022 NFL season, the 49ers started three different quarterbacks during the course of the season; Trey Lance, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Brock Purdy. After both Lance and Garoppolo went down with injuries, it was Brock Purdy who heroically led the 9er faithful down the stretch on their way to the NFC Championship. Purdy went from Mr. Irrelevant to the savior in just a few months’ time. He was even making waves in the fantasy community. From his first start in Week 14 to the final regular season game, Purdy was fantasy’s QB6 and scored 93 points. That’s an average of 18.6 per game.
There is only one problem with Brock Purdy from a fantasy standpoint though. In Weeks 1-12, when Purdy wasn’t under center, the 49ers averaged 30.5 pass attempts a game. Weeks 14 through 18 when Brock Purdy was the starting quarterback, that number dropped down to 24.8 attempts per game. That’s about six fewer targets per game for the pass catchers to utilize. While Brock Purdy was efficient and playing at a high level, fewer targets are never a good thing for the pass catchers. Someone is bound to be the odd man out this season, the question is who?
In weeks 1-12 the #49ers averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game w/ JimmyG & Trey Lance at QB.
In the regular season games Brock Purdy started, that total dropped to 24.8 attempts per game. #fttb
(1/2)
— Austin Thomas (@Austin_Thomas18) August 25, 2023
Mining For Targets
As far as targets are concerned, George Kittle appears to be safe. Going by the small sample size from last season, Kittle led the Brock Purdy era in receptions and touchdowns. Kittle was even the TE1 during this span scoring 93.3 PPR points and averaging 18.7 per game. For comparison, that 93.3 points was 23.3 more points than the overall TE1 finisher, Travis Kelce.
George Kittle was unstoppable and scored touchdowns at a high rate. Brock Purdy threw 13 total touchdowns and seven of them went in Kittle’s direction. Kittle also led the team in target share percentage at 26.02% over teammates Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey, and Deebo Samuel. Brock Purdy has his favorite target and will lean on him once again in the 2023 season now that he’s officially been named the starter.
Two #FantasyFootball golden nuggets on the #49ers top receiving options:
Aiyuk was still heavily involved even w/ CMC
Kittle had the highest TS% during Brock Purdy starts#fttb pic.twitter.com/T3AEuSniA9
— Austin Thomas (@Austin_Thomas18) August 24, 2023
Fantasy Fool’s Gold
George Kittle has been presented as a great fantasy tight end option this season, but there’s more to the story. Yes, Kittle led the team in touchdowns during Brock Purdy’s regular season starts, but scored seven in four weeks. That helped Kittle reach a career-high in receiving touchdowns at 11. His career average is 5.17 per season. Kittle scored more than double his normal amount of yearly touchdowns and he even surpassed his average in a matter of four weeks. Could Purdy pepper Kittle with targets again? Sure, but chances are that was an outlier and Kittle’s touchdown numbers will level back down close to his career average.
Currently, George Kittle is being drafted as the TE4, and on the surface that seems about right. However, there are some red flags and things to be concerned with. One, Brock Purdy averaged almost six fewer pass attempts per game in his starts, therefore fewer targets to go around. Secondly, Deebo Samuel didn’t play in three of the five games Purdy started. That’ll reduce the overall target share of everyone further. Lastly, Kittle is expected to have touchdown regression. Add all that up and it equals a major fade at cost. Kittle remains an elite tight end, but there is just better value at the position in your drafts.
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Main Photo: Sergio Estrada – USA Today Sports
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