The 49ers broke the evaluation process in the 2022 NFL draft
Evaluating quarterbacks is an imperfect science. Some quarterbacks have all the physical gifts but fail miserably in the NFL. Other quarterbacks have a limited physical skill set and become the best quarterbacks in the league. The balance between skills and smarts is fascinating for sports’ most important position. Deciphering defenses in real-time while facing a pass rush and throwing the football with anticipation ranks at the top of the toughest tasks in any sport.
In the last ten years, only two quarterbacks selected with the number one pick have raised the Lombardi trophy. Peyton Manning with Denver (although he was a passenger on the bus) and Matthew Stafford for the Los Angeles Rams are the two number-one selected quarterbacks to finish the job.
Tom Brady (sixth round, 199th overall) and Patrick Mahomes (first round, tenth overall) have traded Super Bowl wins, with Philadelphia winning two Super Bowls with Nick Foles (third round, 88th overall) and Jalen Hurts (second round, 53rd overall) during the last ten years.
Organizations continue to search for elite talent at the quarterback position. Joe Burrow was a number one overall pick but lost to Stafford. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are elite, and the Lombardi has eluded both despite trading MVP awards.
And then there is the case of the last pick in the 2022 NFL Draft: Brock Purdy. Purdy’s story is ripped straight out of a Disney story. “Mr. Irrelevant” has been to two NFC Championship games and was minutes from dethroning Mahomes in Las Vegas. Other organizations have invested significant draft capital searching for their franchise quarterback without the immediate results returned from Purdy.
Eric Edholm of NFL Network outlined how the 49ers got ludicrously lucky with Purdy.
The 49ers got ludicrously lucky. At least, that’s the way it looks when one considers that Purdy, the last overall pick in 2022, is also the only QB from that class to still be with his drafting team.
Then again, you can’t win the lottery if you don’t buy a ticket in the first place. The Niners went into the draft with an established vet ( Jimmy Garoppolo ), a previous high draft pick ( Trey Lance ), and ready-made roster fodder ( Nate Sudfeld ) in the fold. They could have counted up to three on the QB depth chart and decided not to spend even the minimal possible amount of extra capital on the position, even if they’d been intending to trade Garoppolo, who had undergone shoulder surgery that March, during the offseason. But if not for that low-stakes (though apparently also high-stakes) decision, San Francisco would not have been able to slide Purdy into place after Lance and Garoppolo went down with injuries — and they would not now be preparing to extend the QB who has put up the second-best passer rating in the NFL (104.9) since 2022.
Purdy’s rise must seem brutally unfair to teams that have been fruitlessly searching for a viable QB for years. No one is likely to ever repeat San Francisco’s exact path to Purdy — but teams can keep taking swings at the position, even when they seemingly have one (or more!) options on hand already.
The trade-up for Lance and unearthing Purdy with the last pick is the perfect way to sum up how draft position doesn’t predict future success and why teams should never stop looking for quarterbacks each year. The discussion turns now to compensating Purdy for overperforming his draft position and contract by returning immense value at the sport’s most important position.