In our first mock draft, the 49ers address their biggest positions of need by double dipping at the same school
It’s the NFL Combine week. Free agency is being pushed aside in favor of the upcoming NFL Draft as we focus on over 300 prospective players.
Over the next week, players will “rise” and “fall.” A 250-pound, 21-year-old has the same 40-yard dash time as the average wide receiver. But the NFL Combine, for me at least, is used to draw red lines through players.
We’re in the dark when it comes to off-the-field issues, so we’ll steer clear of any rumors unless there are concrete reports that are public information. Who would have thought the defensive tackle on his third school isn’t the most amicable teammate?
On the outside, we’re only privy to athletic testing numbers. Athleticism matters in athletics, so this week is the perfect time to narrow down the pool of players you’re interested in by eliminating the players who don’t meet certain athletic baselines or thresholds.
Our first mock draft of the year comes before the Combine, so we’ll have to rely on the good ‘ol eye test. These are players who, I believe, play like 80 percentile or better athletes and play with the style and aggression the 49ers look for.
Round 1, No. 11: Walter Nolen, Ole Miss – Defensive tackle
When you’re watching a player, and you start laughing because of the things he’s doing to his opponent, you’re dealing with a special skill set. That shouldn’t be a surprise, as Nolen was the No. 1 or No. 2 player in the 2022 high school draft class with Travis Hunter.
It’s one thing to be stout, strong at the point of attack, or any other adjective or phrase you can come up with to determine strength. Nolen displaces offensive linemen when he gets his hands on them first.
He is an absurd run defender who wins without taking any shortcuts. Nolen will go right through you, wins with quickness off the line, and get behind a guard while he’s still getting out of his stance. The 49ers were woeful against the run last season because they were weak down the spine.
Nolen can fight over reach blocks, make plays down the line of scrimmage, and consistently play in the backfield of the offense. It’s one of the easiest evaluations, and I struggle to see him outside of the top 10 in consensus big boards perusing the internet.
The thought is that Nolen might have short arms, which will be an issue, such as shedding blocks, playing with inconsistent pad level, and developing more of an arsenal as a pass rusher. The NFL Combine will answer any arm-length questions.
I watch Nolen and see a star. History is on my side, as the Niners are in a sweet spot to find a stud defensive tackle. During the past 15 years, here is the list of defensive tackles drafted between No. 9 and No. 13:
J.J. Watt
Fletcher Cox
Aaron Donald
Vita Vea
Christian Wilkins
Jalen Carter
No pressure, kid.
Round 2, No. 43: Jared Ivey, Ole Miss – Edge rusher
The 49ers underestimated how big of a loss Arik Armstead would be in terms of what they do defensively and why they do it so well.
He’s the type of player that dominates a game and frees up players around him to make plays. That doesn’t always translate to the box score, so financially, it’s understandable why you part ways when there are injury concerns. But when Arik was on the field in 2022-2023, he gave the Niners the type of multiplicity you can’t duplicate.
Hello, Jared Ivey. No. 15 pops up early and often when you’re watching Ole Miss.
If you’re not an avid college football watcher, you might be under the impression that the Rebels were an offensive team with Lane Kiffin at the helm. That could not be further from the truth. Ole Miss was among the best defenses in the country and boasted one of the three best defensive lines. We’ve seen teams, like the Philadelphia Eagles, double dip in the draft from schools. Ole Miss is this year’s Georgia. Their defense was elite, thanks in large part to Nolen and Ivey.
Ivey is 23 but fits the 49ers’ theme of experience from the 2024 NFL Draft. He’s played starter snaps for three seasons. He had eight sacks in each of the previous two seasons but saw his pressures double in 2024. Per PFF, Ivey finished in the 85th percentile or better against the run, pass, and pass rush win rate.
Per my eyes, it’s like watching Armstead all over again. Ivey’s listed at 6’6, 285 pounds. His signature win is an arm over, just like Armstead. Ivey is an elite-run defender, who I’d argue is further along as an edge rusher than Armstead coming out. As you might expect, when he kicks inside and goes against offensive linemen who don’t have the length to keep him at bay, Ivey is a terror to block.
Letting Armstead walk last offseason was a business decision. Replacing him with players who could only rush the passer was negligent. Ivey doesn’t just hold up against the run. He beats blockers and causes chaos.
Plus, Ivey suffered an ankle injury that appeared to be serious in Week 3, but he only missed one game. That speaks to his toughness and willingness to get back onto the field. He’s the type of player you need on defense to win a championship. Ivey is undoubtedly a top-50 talent in a loaded defensive line class.
The 49ers would be fortunate to double up with Nolen and Ivey to begin the draft.
Round 3, No. 75: Marcus Mbow, Purdue – Right Tackle
Shanahan doesn’t need pointers on how to run his offense. The 49ers remained in the upper echelon last season. That offensively says all you need to know about the head honcho of the 49ers.
But….
It’s time to evolve. Shanahan is still living in the 90s, thinking that you need a right tackle above average as a run blocker and serviceable in pass protection. In his defense, the 49ers have gone on several deep playoff runs with that specific type of right tackle.
Mbow is listed at 6’5, 300 pounds. That’s one inch shorter and one pound lighter than Colton McKivitz. The difference between the two is that Mbow’s frame is noticeably leaner than McKivitz’s.
It’s worth noting that Mbow broke his leg in October of the 2023 season, so last year, he was coming off a year of rehabbing. Perhaps he could add more mass this offseason.
Despite the lack of sand in his pants, Mbow is decisively more athletic than McKivitz. He’s a finisher. You can see the mean streak in Mbow’s game right away. His superb quickness helps Mbow get to his landmarks, and his hand usage makes me think the 49ers could steal a starter in the third round along the offensive line for the second year in a row.
Round 3, No. 99: Harold Fannin Jr., Bowling Green – Tight end
If I haven’t lost you already, can I interest you in a 20-year-old tight end who led all draft-eligible tight ends in forced missed tackles, tied for second in deep receptions, and scored 10 touchdowns last year?
If we consider “eligibles” rather than position labels, Fannin Jr. has no business remaining this late in the draft, but he was available in the simulation.
Fannin Jr. would thrive in Shanahan’s offense. If you’re worried about his 1,555 receiving yards not translating to the NFL, Bowling Green played Penn State and Texas A&M early in the season. Fanning had 11 receptions for 137 yards in one game and eight receptions for 145 yards in the other.
He’s a willing blocker, as Abdul Carter found out. Fannin Jr. had zero issues finding or creating separation in those two games. He’d be a fantastic option in the red zone and on third downs with his size, quickness, coordination, and strong hands. Fannin Jr. also fits the YAC mold. He’s a player that should be drafted closer to No. 69, not 99.
Round 4, No. 111: DJ Giddens, Kansas State – Running back
After suffering through the first 111 picks, Shanahan finally persuades the front office that this is the time to draft a running back.
Giddens isn’t expected to run well, which might exclude him from a team that loves its speed at running back. Jordan Mason ran a 4.54-4.58 40. Giddens is lighter than Mason, listed at 212 pounds, but he is a complete back.
Over 12 percent of Giddens’ carries went for 15 or more yards. His patience, vision, and burst allow him to consistently break off long runs. Giddens’s 10-yard split will be something to keep an eye on at the Combine. Giddens caught the ball well out of the backfield and was asked to be a three-down back, which tells me the coaching staff is confident in his pass protection skills. He looked comfortable in various roles.
He’s not listed in many top 20 running back rankings, assuming because of the perceived slow 40 time, but we’re talking about a player who routinely came through for his offense. Giddens is one of my favorite running backs in this class.
Round 4, No. 137: Rylie Mills, Notre Dame – Defensive tackle
Mills is a 295-pound defensive tackle who will be 24 coming off a plantar fasciitis injury that prevented him from playing in the college football playoff.
Mills is more of a pass-rushing threat. Nobody will argue that it’s not conducive to bet on 300-pounders coming off injury, but I’m willing to take a swing on this type of player. Mills’ pass-rush win rate was better than Nolen and Mason Graham’s. If the goal is to build depth along the defensive line, this is the risk/reward you take on Day 3.
Round 4, No 138: Upton Stout, Western Kentucky, CB
Stout is small in stature. He’s listed at 5’8, 178 pounds. Watching the Jets safeties under Robert Saleh, they were undersized cornerbacks moonlighting as safeties. They were better in pass coverage and could be used as extra slot defenders. Stout has the type of aggression and twitch to give the 49ers versatility in the secondary.
He lined up primarily in the slot at Western Kentucky but would occasionally rotate deep at safety or line up wide at cornerback. Whether he turns into a special teams demon or a quality role player, Stout has similar qualities on the field that drew the Niners to an undersized Deommodore Lenoir on Day 3 of the draft. We’re getting value here with Stout due to his size.
I’ll take a B-.
Which pick do you disagree with the most or could get on board with? Scroll down and let us know in the comments.